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Cascading expert failure

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 July 2022

Jon Murphy Open the ORCID record for Jon Murphy [Opens in a new window]
Jon Murphy*
Affiliation:
Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, North Carolina, USA
*
Corresponding author. Email: jmmurphy@wcu.edu
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Abstract

Recent research has shown how experts may fail in their duty as advisors by providing advice that leads to a worse outcome than that anticipated by the user of expert opinion. However, those models have focused on the immediate effects of the failure on experts and nonexperts. Using a cascading network failure model, I show how expert failure can cascade throughout multiple sectors, even those not necessarily purchasing the expert opinion. Consequently, even relatively small failures end up having outsized aggregate effects. To provide evidence of my theory, I look at two case studies of COVID expert advice to show how one seemingly minor failure ended up contributing to the pandemic. I conclude with a discussion on institutional frameworks that can prevent such cascades.

Keywords

CascadesCOVID-19expert failurenetwork analysis
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Institutional Economics , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , February 2023 , pp. 52 - 69
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Millennium Economics Ltd.

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