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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 11 November 2008
For many years ‘there has been a widespread sense of expectancy’ in Zaïre, a premonition of ‘fin de reégime’. Yet as Crawford Young went on to explain as early as 1979, although a ‘dissolution of the current fabric of power is an ever-present possibility… the surprising survival capacity of the régime makes risky any assertion of the inevitability of such a change.’1 During the last two decades there have been repeated reports that the political life of Zaïre' authoritatrian and absolute Head of State has been in grave danger for a whole variety of reasons, including the alleged loss of support from some powerful army general or ‘baron’, or the ruined credibility of his régime among international financial organisations, etcetera. The fact that Mobutu Sese Seko continues to remain in power as President means that we need to question our understanding of the situation in Zaïre. Before addressing ourselves to the issue of political succession and of possible scenarios in the future, I shall try to explain the main reasons for the ‘survival capacity’ of the power structure.
Page 37 note 1 Young, Crawford, ‘Testimony Presented ti the Sub-Committee on Africa’, Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, Washington D.C., 5 03 1979, P. 5.Google Scholar
Page 38 note 1 Young, Crawford and Turner, Thomas, The Rise and Decline of the Zaïrian State (Madison, 1985).Google Scholar
Page 38 note 2 Newbury, Catharine, ‘Deadn and Buried or Just Underground? The Privatization of the State in Zaïre’, in Canadian Journal of African Studies (Ottawa), 18, 1, 1984, p. 144.Google Scholar
Page 38 note 3 Crawford Young ‘Zaïre. Is There a State?’, in Ibid. P. 82.
Page 39 note 1 Memorandum of conversation between Van Bilsen, A.A.J. (Kasavubu' advisor) and Robert A. McKinnen (State Department), declassified document, Washington, D.C., 23 September 1960.Google Scholar
Page 40 note 1 Schatzberg, Michael, ‘The Insecure State in Zaïre. Resistance from Within, Resistance from Without’ Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Denver, 2–5 09 1982, pp. 1–2.Google Scholar
Page 40 note 2 Schatzberg, Michael, ‘The Long of the Law: insrcurity, instability and the political police in Zaïre’, Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association,Cincinnati,24–7 March 1982, p. 28.Google Scholar
Page 41 note 1 Quoted from Young, Crawford, ‘Zaïre. The Unending Crisis’, in Foreign Affairs (New York), Fall 1978, p. 172.Google Scholar
Page 42 note 1 Ibid. p. 177.
Page 42 note 2 Willame, JEan-Claude, ‘La Politique de la Belgiqueà I' épreuve. Les Relations belgo-zaïroises (1978–1984)’, in Cahiers de CEDAF (Brussels) 5 08 1985, P. 107.Google Scholar
Page 42 note 3 Young ‘Zaïre. The Unending Crisis’, P. 177.
Page 42 note 4 Callaghy, Thomas M., ‘Africa' Debe Crisis’, in Journal of International Affairs (New York, 38, 1, Summer 1984), p. 66.Google Scholar
Page 43 note 1 Machiavelli, op. cit. p. 21.
Page 43 note 2 Schatzberg, ‘The Insecure State in Zeïre’, P. 34.
Page 44 note 1 Newbury, Catharine, ‘Ebutumwa Bw'Emiogo: the tyranny of cassava. A Women' Tax Revolt in Eastern Zeïre’, in Canadian Journal of African Studies 18, 1, 1984, p. 51.Google Scholar
Page 45 note 1 Young, ‘Testimony’, p. 5.
Page 47 note 1 The U.D.P.S. wa born following the 1979 massacres in and around Katekelay in south Kasai, which were precipitated by a clash between an army unit and local diamond diggers. Following these incidents, several Luba members of the National Assembly protested against ‘Luba persecution’ by the régime. Mobuttu reacted quite violently, saying that he had been the ‘saviour of Kasai’ and that the would not forgive the parliamentarians who were now ‘trying to hurt him’. Pressions exercées sur les élus du kasai-Oriental. Compte-rendu d'audience’ C.E.D.A.F., Brussels, c. 446.
Page 48 note 1 Willame, Jean-Claude, Zaïre: I épeopée d'Inga. Chronique d' une preédationn industrielle, 1986 (Paris, 1987), pp. 155ff.Google Scholar
Page 48 note 2 Ibid. especially the concluding chapter.
Page 48 note 3 Information from the documentation available to the World Bank' Consulative Group on Zaï, 1986.
Page 49 note 1 According to the World Bank, Nécessité d' un ajstement structurel pour assurer une croissancesoutenue (Washington, D.C., 1986), p. 43 the Government in Kinshasa cannot expect foreign investors to trust the country if Zaïrian assets are not repatriated from abroad.Google Scholar
Page 49 note 2 Machiavelli, Niccolo, The Prince (New York edn. 1950), ch xxvi.Google Scholar
