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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 16 May 2022
According to recent research, after the Song dynasty, there was a transformation of the political culture in imperial China according to which Confucian elites and dynastic rulers ceased to construct political legitimacy by interpreting prophecies. By examining the process of how Zhu Yuanzhang, the founder of the Ming dynasty, utilized a popular prophecy and how he concealed his utilization of this prophecy after enthronement, this article offers a more nuanced narrative of the transformation. It shows that during the Yuan-Ming transition, rulers sought to employ prophecies to construct their image as sovereigns favoured by Heaven, but, ironically, in official writings rulers tended to hide their utilization of prophecies so as to highlight their virtues which deserved the Mandate of Heaven. This article argues that after the Song, the role of prophecies changed in the political arena—not from important to unimportant, but from officially recognized to officially concealed.
1 The theory of Five Agents in this context refers to a complex system used by Confucian scholars to construct political legitimacy for rulers. This theory claims that each dynasty was associated with one of the five agents—namely Metal, Wood, Water, Fire, and Earth—and each of the agents could conquer or generate another agent. If a new dynasty replaced an old dynasty, the agent of the new one should conquer that of the old one or the agent of the old should generate that of the new one. This theory also claims that at the end of a dynasty, prophecies, portents, and omens, most of which were related to the five agents, would emerge and that Confucian scholars could read the prophecies and portents to work out who would replace the old dynasty. Normally when a new dynastic regime took power, it would publicly announce the agent associated with the new dynasty and cite prophecies to support its claim of legitimacy. For discussions of the importance of the Five Agents theory and prophecies in imperial China, see, for example, Gu Jiegang 顧頡剛, ‘Wude zhongshi shuo xia de zhengzhi he lishi’ 五德終始說下的政治和歷史, in Gushi bian 古史辨 (Shanghai, 1982), Vol. 5, pp. 404–616; Liu Fusheng 劉複生, ‘Songdai “huoyun” lunlue—jiantan “wude zhuanyi” zhengzhi xueshuo de zhongjie’, 宋代’火運’論略—兼談’五德轉移’政治學說的終結, Lishi yanjiu 歷史研究 3 (1997), pp. 92–106; Chan, Hok-Lam, ‘“Ta Chin” (Great Golden): The origin and changing interpretations of the Jurchen state name’, T'oung Pao 4/5 (1991), pp. 254–257Google Scholar; Chan, Hok-Lam, ‘The “Song” dynasty legacy: symbolism and legitimation from Han Liner to Zhu Yuanzhang of the Ming dynasty’, Harvard Journal of Asiatic Studies 1 (2008), pp. 91–94Google Scholar; Chen, Yuan, ‘Legitimation discourse and the theory of the five elements in Imperial China’, Journal of Song-Yuan Studies 44 (2014), pp. 325–364CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
2 Robert P. Kramers, ‘The development of the Confucian schools’, in The Cambridge History of China. Volume 1: The Ch'in and Han Empires, 221 B.C.–A.D. 220, Denis Twitchett and John K. Fairbank (eds) (Cambridge, 1986), p. 765.
3 Hans Bielenstein, ‘Wang Mang, the restoration of the Han dynasty, and later Han’, in The Cambridge History of China. Volume 1, Twitchett and Fairbank (eds), pp. 230–231.
4 Ibid., pp. 255–256.
5 Gu Jiegang, ‘Wude zhongshishuo xiade zhengzhi he lishi’, Gushi bian, Vol. 5, p. 466.
6 Ouyang Xiu, ‘Zhengtong lun shang’ 正統論 (上), in Ouyang Xiu quanji 歐陽修全集 (Beijing, 2001), j.16, p. 268. For research on Ouyang Xiu's view on political legitimacy, see Chen Xuelin (Hok-Lam Chan) 陳學霖, ‘Ouyang Xiu Zhengtonglun xinshi’ 歐陽修《正統論》新釋, in Shongshi lunji 宋史論集 (Taiwan, 1993), pp. 125–174.
7 Ouyang Xiu, ‘Lun shanqu Jiujing zhengyi zhong chenwei zhazi’ 論刪去九經正義中讖緯劄子, in Ouyang Xiu quanji, j.112, p. 1707.
8 Xu Xinghu, Chengwei wenxian yu Handai wenhua goujian 讖緯文獻與漢代文化構建 (Beijing, 2003), pp. 91–93; Hok-Lam Chan, ‘The “Song” dynasty legacy’, p. 93.
9 Hok-Lam Chan, ‘“Ta Chin” (Great Golden)’, pp. 291–297; Liu Fusheng, ‘Songdai “huoyun” lunlue—jiantan “wude zhuanyi” zhengzhi xueshuo de zhongjie’, pp. 104–106. But there were some discussions about the agents of the Yuan and Ming dynasties in private writings by Yuan, Ming, and Qing scholars. For a study of the influence of this theory in the Yuan and Ming periods, see Yuan Chen, ‘Legitimation discourse’, pp. 348–364.
10 Liu Pujiang, ‘Wude zhongshi shuo zhi zhongjie—jianlun Songdai yijiang chuantong zhengzhi wenhua de shanbian’ 五德終始說之終結—兼論宋代以降傳統政治文化的嬗變, in Liu Pujiang, Zhengtong yu huayi: Zhongguo chuantong zhengzhi wenhua yanjiu 正統與華夷：中國傳統政治文化研究 (Beijing, 2017), pp. 70–73.
11 Ownby, David, ‘Chinese millenarian traditions: the formative age’, American Historical Review 104.5 (December 1999), p. 1528CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
12 There are many works on this field. For example, see Susan Naquin, Millenarian Rebellion in China: The Eight Trigrams Uprising of 1813 (New Haven, 1976); Barend ter Haar, The White Lotus Teachings in Chinese Religious History (Leiden, 1976).
13 For research on the Jingkang Incident, see Ari Levine, ‘The reigns of Hui-tsung (1100–1126) and Ch'in-tsung (1126–1127) and the fall of the Northern Sung’, in The Cambridge History of China. Volume 5, Part 1: The Sung Dynasty and Its Precursors, 907–1279, (eds) Denis Twitchett and John K. Fairbank (Cambridge, 2009), pp. 639–643; Patricia Ebrey, Emperor Huizong (Cambridge MA, 2014), pp. 449–474.
14 Chen Liang, ‘Shang Xiaozong huangdi diyishu’ 上孝宗皇帝第一書, in Chen Liang ji (Beijing, 1974), j.1, p. 8. For Chen Liang and his philosophy, see Hoyt Cleveland Tillman, Utilitarian Confucianism: Ch'en Liang's Challenge to Chu Hsi (Cambridge, MA, 1982).
15 Hong Mai 洪邁, Rongzhai suibi (Shanghai, 1978), j.10, pp. 928–929.
16 Ibid.
17 Ibid., p. 928.
18 Ibid., p. 929.
19 Chai Wang, ‘Bingding guijian xu’ 丙丁龜鑒序, Qiutangji 秋堂集 (Yingyin Wenyuange Siku quanshu 影印文淵閣四庫全書, hereafter SKQS), ce1187, j.2, p. 487.
20 Ibid.
21 Wang Yinglin, Kunxue jiwen (Shanghai, 2015), j.20, p. 556.
22 On Zhang Jixian's images as an immortal, see Shi Nai'an and Luo Guanzhong, Outlaws of the Marsh, (trans) Sidney Shapiro (Bloomington, 1981), pp. 1–15.
23 Zhang Yu 張雨, Xuanpinlu 玄品錄 (Siku quanshu cunmu congshu 四庫全書存目叢書, hereafter SKCM), zi 259, j.5, pp. 612–613. Because both bingwu and dingwei years belong to the Red in the Five Colour system and the Fire in the Five Element system, this apocalyptic belief is often referred to as the Apocalypse of Red Horse and Red Sheep, or simply the Red Sheep Apocalypse.
24 Yuan Jue, ‘Zhang Xujing huan'anbianyueguihe ciyun’ 張虛靖圜庵扁曰歸鶴次韻, Qingrong jushi ji 清容居士集 (Sibu congkan 四部叢刊, hereafter SBCK), j.10, p. 6a.
25 Zhang Zhu, ‘Zhou Han zhanggongzhufu linangucheng ertu’ 周漢長公主府臨安故城二圖, Duian shiji 蛻庵詩集 (SBCK), j.3, p. 21a.
26 Song Ben 宋本, ‘Jixixianyin zhanggong jiuzhengji’ 績溪縣尹張公舊政記, Guochao wenlei 國朝文類, (ed.) Su Tianjue 蘇天爵 (SBCK), j.39, p. 4b.
27 Anonymous author, ‘Xu bingding guijianlu xu’ 續丙丁龜鑒錄序, Baoyantang dingzheng bingding guijian 寶顏堂訂正丙丁龜鑒 (SKCM), zi 067, j.6, p. 591.
28 Fang Yue, ‘Dai Fanchengxiang’ 代范丞相, Qiuya ji 秋崖集 (SKQS), ce1182, j.18, p. 343.
29 Liu Kezhuang, ‘Zhao Keqin muzhi’ 趙克勤墓誌, Houcun xiansheng daquanji 後村先生大全集 (SBCK), j.158, p. 2b.
30 Yong Rong 永瑢 and Ji Yun 紀昀 et al. (eds), Qingding Siku quanshu zongmu 欽定四庫全書總目 (Beijing, 1997), j.111, p. 1473.
31 The most recent bingwu and dingwei years were 1966 and 1967, when the Cultural Revolution had reached its most violent stage. After this political movement, many intellectuals wrote books recording their misery during this period. The Chinese writer and translator Yang Jiang's 楊絳 (1911–2016) The Records of the Bingwu and Dingwei Years 丙午丁未年紀事 details the sufferings her family experienced during the Cultural Revolution. Yang mentions the two years of bingwu and dingwei in reference to the disastrous Cultural Revolution. See Yang Jiang 楊絳, ‘Bingwu dingweinian jishi’ 丙午丁未年紀事, Yangjiang wenji sanwenjuan 楊絳文集散文(Beijing, 2009), Vol. 1, pp. 55–83.
32 Lu Shen 陸深, Pinghulu 平胡錄 (Conshu jicheng chubian) (Shanghai, 1937), Vol. 3977, p. 14.
33 Mingtaizu shilu 明太祖實錄 (Taibei, 1962), j.21, p. 311. For details about the Red Turban rebellions and Zhu Yuanzhang's relationship with the Song state, see Dardess, John W., ‘The transformations of messianic revolt and the founding of the Ming Dynasty’, Journal of Asian Studies 29.3 (1970), pp. 539–541CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Hok-Lam Chan, ‘The “Song” dynasty legacy’, pp. 91–133; Frederic W. Mote, ‘The Rise of the Ming Dynasty, 1330–1367’, in The Cambridge History of China. Volume 7, Part 1: The Ming Dynasty, 1368–1644, (eds) Frederick W. Mote and Denis Twitchett (Cambridge, 1998), pp. 12–44; Edward L. Dreyer, Early Ming China: A Political History 1355–1435 (Stanford, 1982), pp. 12–65; David M. Robinson, Empire's Twilight: Northeast Asia Under the Mongols (Cambridge, MA, 2009), pp. 130–60. For discussion of the religious background of this rebellion, see Barend ter Haar, The White Lotus Teachings in Chinese Religious History (Leiden, 1992), pp. 114–139; also ter Haar, Barend, ‘Rumors and prophecies: the religious background of the Late Yuan Rebellion’, Studies in Chinese Religions 4 (2018), pp. 382–418CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
34 Wang Shizhen 王世貞, Yanshantang bieji 弇山堂別集 (Beijing, 1985), j.86, p. 1633.
35 Wu Han, ‘Mingjiao yu daming diguo’ 明教與大明帝國, in Wuhan shixue lunzhu xuanji 吳晗史學論著選集 (Beijing, 1986), Vol. 2, p. 383.
36 Wu Han, Zhu Yuanzhang zhuan (1948) 朱元璋傳 (1948), in Wuhan quanji, Vol. 5 (Beijing, 2009), p.186.
37 The Gengshen waishi was a major source for the chronology of the last emperor of the Yuan in the Yuanshi. See Wang Shenrong 王慎榮, Yuanshi tanyuan 元史探源 (Changchun, 1991), pp. 40–50.
38 Song Lian 宋濂 et al. (eds), Yuanshi 元史 (Beijing, 1976), j.51, p. 1107 [hereafter YS]. Children's songs were a common trope used in Chinese historical books in reference to rumours and prophecies. In the Chinese tradition, children have the ability to see invisible figures and to foresee events that adults could not.
39 In the context of this prophecy, the Wu Family State vaguely refers to a state related to Wu. It might refer to a state with the state name Wu, or a state with its ruling house having the surname Wu, or a state the ruler of which bears a title relating to Wu.
40 Zhizheng 至正 was the reign title of the last Yuan emperor, who was still ruling North China in this year.
41 Quan Heng, Gengshen weishi jianzheng (Zhengzhou, 1991), j.1, p. 63.
42 Huang Yu, Shuanghuai suichao 雙槐歲抄 (SKCM), zi 239, j.1, p. 427; Wang Qi, Xu wenxiantongkao 續文獻通考 (SKCM), zi189, j.224, p. 258; Guo Zizhang, Liuyu 六語 (SKCM), zi 251, j.6, p. 242; Jiang Yikui, Yaoshantang waiji 堯山堂外紀 (SKCM), zi 148, j.78, p. 294; Qian Qianyi, Chuxue ji 初學集 (Shanghai, 1995), j.103, pp. 2123–2124; Qian Daxin, Qianyangtang ji 潛研堂集 (Shanghai, 1989), shiji j.1, p. 922.
43 Huang Yu, ‘Shengrui huode’ 聖瑞火德, Shuanghuai suichao 雙槐歲抄 (SKCM), zi 239, j.1, p. 427. Although Zhu Yuanzhang did not publicly announce the cosmological agent of the Ming, many Ming scholars identified Zhu and the Ming dynasty with the Fire Agent. For related research, see Hok-Lam Chan, ‘The “Song” Dynasty legacy’, pp. 91–133; Liu Pujiang 劉浦江, ‘Wude zhongshi shuo zhi zhongjie—jianlun Songdai yijiang chuantong zhengzhi wenhua de shanbain’, pp. 177–190.
44 Qian Qianyi, Chuxue ji 初學集 (Shanghai, 1995), j.103, pp. 2123–2124.
45 Hsiao Ch'i-Ch'ing, ‘Zhonghua fudi guyue huanjia mengyuan xingwang yu chenwei’ 中華福地古月還家：蒙元興亡與讖緯, Yuanchaoshi xinlun 元朝史新論 (Taibei, 1999), p. 97.
46 The phrase wujiaguo in this children's song was a colloquial expression. More formal literature such as official histories has similar expressions like jiaguo juwang 家國俱亡 or guopo jiawang 國破家亡.
47 YS, j.51, p. 1104.
48 YS, j.51, p. 1107. This prophecy has been cited by modern scholars working on Chinese environmental history. Based on this prophecy, they argue that sandstorms existed in the area of Beijing as early as the Yuan period. See Wang Weiti 王維堤, ‘Lishishangde shachen tianqi’ 歷史上的沙塵天氣, Zhonghua wenshi luncong 中華文史論叢72 (2003), p. 44.
49 Analects 16:1. This translation is adopted from William Theodore de Bary and Irene Bloom (eds), Sources of Chinese Tradition. Volume 1: From Earliest Time to 1600 (New York, 1999), p. 61.
50 For detailed research on the distribution of wealth during the Yuan, see Wu Han, Zhu Yuanzhang zhuan 1948, pp. 28–31; Meng Siming 蒙思明, Yuandai shehui jieji zhidu 元代社會階級制度 (Shanghai, 2006), pp. 174–181; Han Rulin 韓儒林, Yuanchaoshi 元朝史 (Beijing, 1986), pp. 38–53.
51 Ye Ziqi 葉子奇, Caomuzi 草木子 (Beijing, 1959), j.3, p. 51. This translation is adapted from Dardess, ‘The transformations of messianic revolt’, p. 545.
52 Ye, Caomuzi, j.3, p. 51.
53 Chen Gaohua 陳高華, ‘Yuandai qiyi nongmin de kouhao’ 元代起義農民的口號, Yuanshi yanjiu lungao 元史研究論稿 (Beijing, 1991), pp. 260–265.
54 Yu Ben 俞本, Jishilu jianzheng 紀事錄箋證, (anno.) Li Xinfeng 李新峰 (Beijing, 2015), pp. 136, 174–175.
55 Qian Qianyi, Guochu qunxiong shilue 國初群雄事略 (Beijing, 1982), j.7, p. 181; MTZSL, j.13, p. 172.
56 Although Zhu Yuanzhang was nominally subservient to the Song state and its emperor Han Lin'er during 1363–1367, his contemporaries, including rivals and allies, knew he controlled the Song and tended to call his regime the Wu.
57 Qian, Guochu qunxiong shilue, j.7, pp. 181–182.
58 Frederic W. Mote, ‘The Rise of the Ming Dynasty, 1330–1367’, in The Cambridge History of China. Volume 7, Mote and Twitchett (eds), p. 57.
59 The drowning of Han Lin'er, Zhu Yuanzhang's overlord, in the twelfth month of the bingwu year (January 1367) can also be examined in the context of the bingwu and dingwei apocalyptic belief. The timing of Han's death was helpful to Zhu Yuanzhang. First, he died in the bingwu year, a time that was believed to be dangerous for emperors. The timing of Han's death could, to some extent, dispel the suspicion that Zhu Yuanzhang might have murdered his overlord. Second, the timing enabled Zhu Yuanzhang to adopt his own reign title Wu from the first day of the dingwei Sheep year, thus satisfying the Wu Family State prophecy. The relationship between Zhu Yuanzhang and Han Lin'er was quite complex, and I plan to address this topic in a separate article in the future.
60 Ban Gu, Hanshu (Beijing, 1962), j.27, p. 1377.
61 Wu Chengxue 吳承學, ‘Lun chenyao yu shichen’ 論讖謠與詩讖, Wenxue pinglun 文學評論, 2 (1996), p. 105. For research on poetic auguries, see Sun Rongrong 孫蓉蓉, ‘Chenyao yu shixue’ 讖謠與詩學, Wenxue pinglun 6 (2011), pp. 164–171.
62 For the relationship between the Gengshen waishi and the Yuanshi, see Wang Shenrong, Yuanshi tanyuan, p. 47.
63 Song Lian, ‘Jin Yuanshi biao’ 進元史表, YS, p. 4673.
64 Zhao Fang, ‘Song Cao Gongwan xiansheng gui fanyang xu’ 送操公琬先生歸番陽序, in Quanyuanwen 全元文, (eds) Li Xiusheng 李修聲 et al. (Nanjing, 2004), Vol. 54, j.1666, p. 438.
65 Chen Gaohua 陳高華, ‘Yuanshi zuanxiu kao’ 元史撰修考, in Chen Gaohua wenji 陳高華文集 (Shanghai, 2005), pp. 469–491.
66 John Dardess, Confucianism and Autocracy: Professional Elites in the Founding of the Ming Dynasty (Berkeley, 1983), pp. 185–224.
67 Edward L. Farmer, Zhu Yuanzhang and Early Ming Legislation: The Reordering of Chinese Society Following the Era of Mongol Rule (Leiden, 1995), pp. 18–32.
68 ‘Dengjizhao’ 登極詔, in Huangming zhaoling 皇明詔令, (ed.) Fu Fengxiang 傅鳳翔, (SKCM), shi v. 58, j.1, pp. 4a–5a.
69 For example, see Mingtaizu shilu, Vol. 22, pp. 313–314; Vol. 34, pp. 602–603; and Vol. 76, p. 1396.
70 Qian Qianyi, Guochu qunxiong shilue, j.1, p. 38; Wu Han, Zhu Yuanzhang zhuan, in Wu Han quanji, Vol. 6, p. 318; Yang Ne, ‘Zhu Yuanzhang yu Liu Futong Han Lin'er’, in Yuanshi lunji (Beijing, 2012), p. 318.
71 YS, j.44, p. 928; j.142, p. 3397; j.52, p. 891.
72 See YS, j.46, pp. 958, 966, 967; j.47, p. 977.
73 Gao Dai 高岱, Hongyoulu 鴻猷錄 (SKCM), shi 19, j.2, p. 21; He Qiaoyuan 何喬遠, Mingshanzang 名山藏 (Xuxiu Siku quanshu 續修四庫全書), Vol. 426, j.43, p. 354.
74 Wang Shizhen, Mingqing jiji 名卿績紀 (Mingdai zhuanji congkan 明代傳記叢刊), ce 42, j.3, p. 78.
75 Liu Weiqian 劉惟謙 (comp.), Daminglü 大明律 (SKCM), shi 276, j.11, p. 592. For more on the Great Ming Code and connections to the Mandate of Heaven, see Jiang Yonglin, Mandate of Heaven and the Great Ming Code (Seattle, 2015).
76 Daminglü, j.8, pp. 645–646.
