It was originally proposed that this paper should be entitled ‘Property Investment’, but it was found to be quite impossible to condense such a subject satisfactorily. Also, a paper was presented to the Society some eight years ago entitled ‘An Introduction to Property Investment’, by Lane and Leach (J.S.S. 5, 166). It is thought that the two papers can be read together with advantage. What has been done in this paper is to provide a series of statements and opinions with a view to provoking thought and discussion. Many points may be raised which have been left out. Much, no doubt, has been put in which is obvious and elementary.

We are concerned with Property Investment on a long-term basis, i.e. we are not concerned with speculation, namely, the quick purchase and re-sale of property to make a profit; furthermore, we are not concerned with House Purchase schemes. It must also be emphasized that this paper relates to England and Wales and not to Scotland. In the authors' view, basically sound property investment as distinct from owner occupation is very difficult indeed to achieve in Scotland, owing to rating complications, low yields, horizontal ownerships and other legal difficulties.

This paper is an attempt to give an account of the various considerations which must be borne in mind in fixing the terms which can be quoted for the alteration of a policy. It is divided into various sections as follows:

A. The formulae which are theoretically suitable.

B. The modifications which can be made to the formulae for use in practice.

C. The points to be considered in choosing the actual basis used.

D. The various types of policies and of alterations not dealt with in the preceding sections.

E. Points of procedure and the method of dealing with altered policies for valuation, etc.

Only ordinary life business will be considered: Industrial Assurance is outside the scope of the paper.

For the purpose of sections A and B only non-profit policies are considered, and the formulae apply to an alteration from a whole of life policy to an endowment policy. With suitable changes they can be used for other alterations.

Much of the demographic research undertaken in this country is naturally concerned with statistics relating to the British nation. It is very desirable, however, that attention should also be directed abroad. As Prof. J. B. S. Haldane has recently said, ‘any branch of knowledge is improved by a background’; it follows that our understanding of the affairs of our own population can be increased by a study of the numbers and movements of people elsewhere. Theories formed in order to account for occurrences in one country may appear unreasonable when tested in the light of other population data. Alternatively, they may find useful confirmation; a good example is to be seen in W. S. Hocking's article in J.I.A. on the mortality of males in later middle life. By making international comparisons, not only did the author find valuable supporting evidence for his observations based on British data, but he was enabled to carry his analysis a stage further and examine the effects of differing degrees of industrialization upon the relative levels of male and female mortality.

Some three years ago a note in this Journal (J.S.S.10, 24) called attention to the rapid decline that was taking place in the numbers of unmarried women in this country, due to the fact that the number of marriages was exceeding the number of young women reaching the marriageable ages. During the past three years statistics of a further three or four years' marriages have been issued and a sample analysis of the total population enumerated at the 1951 Census has been published. It may be of interest, therefore, to examine these data to see whether the trends exhibited in the years up to 1947–48 have continued and whether the 1951 Census results confirm the estimates given by the Registrar General for the inter-war years.

The first assertion made in the note referred to is that ‘a considerable fall in the number of marriages, to be followed by a consequential fall in the number of births, is almost inevitable during the next few years’. As the number of marriages in England and Wales in the years 1950–52 averaged only 356,000, whereas during the period 1939–47 the average level was 385,000 a year, the first part of the assertion is being substantiated.