Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-8bljj Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-29T07:05:58.711Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Authoritarian Regimes and Their Permitted Oppositions: Election Day Outcomes in Cuba

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Jorge I. Domínguez ,
Ángela Fonseca Galvis  and
Chiara Superti
Jorge I. Domínguez
Affiliation:
Harvard University. jorge_dominguez@harvard.edu
Ángela Fonseca Galvis
Affiliation:
Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. a_fonseca@javeriana.edu.co
Chiara Superti
Affiliation:
Columbia University. cs3546@columbia.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Electoral opposition to long-established authoritarian regimes may be loyal or rejectionist. Loyal oppositionists vote to send a selective signal to rulers; rejectionist oppositionists vote blank or void the ballot in full disapproval. In Cuba, the number of candidates equals the number of seats, yet voters may vote blank, void, or selectively (choosing some but not all candidates on the ballot), although the Communist Party has campaigned for all candidates. This article uses a unique dataset for Cuba's 2013 National Assembly elections to study aggregate opposition outcomes. It shows the emergence of a loyal opposition, which sometimes votes for and sometimes against Communist Party candidates. The rejectionist opposition, stable over time, never votes for Communist Party candidates; it is found where the Communist Party behaves monopolistically. This combined opposition has better national-level political information; it comes from more educated or larger urban areas or areas closer to Havana.

Type
Research
Information
Latin American Politics and Society , Volume 59 , Issue 2 , Summer 2017 , pp. 27 - 52
Copyright
Copyright © University of Miami 2017

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ananta, Aries, Arifin, Evi Nurvidya, and Suryadinata, Leo. 2005. Emerging Democracy in Indonesia. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.Google Scholar
August, Arnold. 2013. Cuba and Its Neighbours: Democracy in Motion. New York: Zed Books.Google Scholar
August, Arnold. 2014. Democracy Still in Motion: the 2013 Election Results in Cuba. International Journal of Cuban Studies 61 (Spring): 87–94.Google Scholar
Bahry, Donna, and Silver, Brian D.. 1990. Soviet Citizen Participation on the Eve of Democratization. American Political Science Review 84 3: 821–47.Google Scholar
Bayuni, Endy M. 2009. Do I Go to Hell If I Don't Vote? Hell, No Jakarta Post, January 28. http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/01/28/do-i-go-hell-if-i-don039t-vote-hell-no.html. Accessed October 6, 2015.Google Scholar
Blaydes, Lisa. 2006. Who Votes in Authoritarian Elections and Why? Determinants of Voter Turnout in Contemporary Egypt. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, August.Google Scholar
Brownlee, Jason. 2011. Executive Elections in the Arab World: When and How Do They Matter? Comparative Political Studies 44 7: 807–28.Google Scholar
Cuba Posible. 2015. Política y lealtad a Cuba: un debate. No. 17 (June).Google Scholar
Damore, David F., Waters, Mallory M., and Bowler, Shaun. 2012. Unhappy, Uninformed, or Uninterested? Understanding None of the above Voting. Political Research Quarterly 65 4: 895–907.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Domínguez, Jorge I. 1978. Cuba: Order and Revolution. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Driscoll, Amanda, and Nelson, Michael J 2014. Ignorance or Opposition? Blank and Spoiled Votes in Low-Information, Highly Politicized Environments. Political Research Quarterly 67 3: 547–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Przeworski, Adam. 2007. Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats. Comparative Political Studies 40 11: 1279–1301.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Lust-Okar, Ellen. 2009. Elections under Authoritarianism. Annual Review of Political Science 12: 403–22.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 1999. What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years? Annual Review of Political Science 2 1: 115–44.Google Scholar
Gilison, Jerome M. 1968. Soviet Elections as a Measure of Dissent: the Missing One Percent. American Political Science Review 62: 814–26.Google Scholar
Granma (Havana). 1993. [No title.] March 11.Google Scholar
Granma (Havana). 2005. Ley electoral. November 26. http://www.granma.cubaweb.cu/secciones/elecciones2005/art121.html. Accessed 11/26/2005.Google Scholar
Granma (Havana). 2008a. Llama la Ctc al voto unido. January 14.Google Scholar
Granma (Havana). 2008b. ¡Triunfó el voto unido! January 22. http://www.granma.cubaweb.cu/secciones/elecciones/84.html accessed 1/22/2008.Google Scholar
Granma (Havana). 2008c. Resultados finales oficiales de las elecciones. January 30. http://www.granma.cubaweb.cu/secciones/elecciones/86.html. Accessed January 30, 2008.Google Scholar
Granma (Havana). 2008d. De la Dirección. June 27. http://www.granma.cubaweb.cu/secciones/cartasdireccion/art-009.html. Accessed 6/27/08.Google Scholar
Granma (Havana). 2013a. ¿Cómo votar este domingo 3 de febrero? February 1. http://granma.cubaweb.cu/2013/02/01/nacional/artic08.html. Accessed 2/19/2013.Google Scholar
Granma (Havana). 2013b. Resultados finales oficiales de las elecciones. February 8. http://www.granma.cubaweb.cu/2013/02/08/nacional/artic09.html. Accessed February 11, 2013.Google Scholar
Guanche, Julio César. 2012. La participación ciudadana en el Estado cubano. Temas 70: 69–79.Google Scholar
Herron, Michael C., and Sekhon, Jasjeet S.. 2005. Black Candidates and Black Voters: Assessing the Impact of Candidate Race on Uncounted Vote Rates. Journal of Politics 67 1: 154–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morjé, Howard, Marc, and Roessler, Philip G.. 2006. Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes. American Journal of Political Science 50 2: 365–81.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA). 2015. Data on Voter Turnout since 1945. http://www.idea.int/advanced-search?th=Voter%20Turnout%20Database Accessed August 19, 2015.Google Scholar
Juventud Rebelde. 2015. Concluyó entrevista on-line sobre el sistema electoral cubano. February 28. http://juventudrebelde.cu/cuba/2015-02-28/que-desea-saber-sobre-elsistema-electoral-cubano. Accessed March 9, 2015.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Pan, Jennifer, and Roberts, Margaret E.. 2013. How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism but Silences Collective Expression. American Political Science Review 107 2: 326–43.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1997. Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Prfseference Falsification. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan J., and Stepan, Alfred. 1996. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
López, Raimundo. 1993. Un domingo distinto. In Elecciones en Cuba: ¿farsa o democracia? Melbourne: Ocean Press.Google Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Malesky, Edmund, and Schuler, Paul. 2009. Paint-by-Numbers Democracy: the Stakes, Structure, and Results of the 2007 Vietnamese National Assembly Election. Journal of Vietnamese Studies 4 1: 1–48.Google Scholar
Malesky, Edmund, and Schuler, Paul. 2011. The Single-Party Dictator's Dilemma: Information in Elections without Opposition. Legislative Studies Quarterly 35 4: 491–530.Google Scholar
Mayoral, María Julia. 2000. 98.06: Masiva respuesta electoral. Granma, April 25. http://www.granma.cubaweb.cu/25abr00/nacional/articulo14.html. Accessed June 25, 2000.Google Scholar
McAllister, Ian, and Makkai, Toni. 1993. Institutions, Society or Protest? Explaining Invalid Votes in Australian Elections. Electoral Studies 12 1: 23–40.Google Scholar
Miller, Michael K. 2015. Elections, Information, and Policy Responsiveness in Autocratic Regimes. Comparative Political Studies 48 6: 691–727.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo, and Schmitter, Philippe C.. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions About Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Organización Nacional de Estadística e Información (ONEI). 2012. Anuario estadístico de Cuba, 2011. Havana. http://www.onei.cu/aec2011/esp/07_tabla_cuadro.htm. Accessed May 13, 2006.Google Scholar
Organización Nacional de Estadística e Información (ONEI). 2014. Anuario estadístico de Cuba, 2013. http://www.one.cu/aec2013/esp/17_tabla_cuadro.htm. Accessed July 22, 2015.Google Scholar
Organización Nacional de Estadística e Información (ONEI). 2015. Anuario estadístico de Cuba, 2014. http://www.onei.cu/aec2014/07%20Empleo%20y%20Salarios.pdf. Accessed May 13, 2016.Google Scholar
Villanueva, Pérez, Everleny, Omar. 2004. The Cuban Economy Today and Its Future Challenges. In The Cuban Economy at the Start of the Twenty-First Century, ed. Domínguez, Jorge I., Villanueva, Pérez, and Barberia, Lorena. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Villanueva, Pérez, Everleny, Omar. 2012. The Cuban Economy: An Evaluation and Proposals for Necessary Policy Changes. In Cuban Economic and Social Development: Policy Reforms and Challenges in the 21st. Century, ed. Domínguez, Jorge I., Villanueva, Pérez, Prieto, Margarita Espina, and Barberia, Lorena. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Villanueva, Pérez, Everleny, Omar. 2016. La economía cubana: evolución y perspectivas. Cuban Studies 44: 19–42.Google Scholar
Power, Timothy J., and Garand, James C.. 2007. Determinants of Invalid Voting in Latin America. Electoral Studies 26 2: 432–44.Google Scholar
Rafuls Pineda, Daniel. 2014. El sistema electoral cubano: de la representación formal a la participación real. Temas 78: 64–71.Google Scholar
Rosenthal, Howard, and Sen, Subrata. 1973. Electoral Participation in the French Fifth Republic. American Political Science Review 67 1: 29–54.Google Scholar
Samii, William A. 2004. Dissent in Iranian Elections: Reasons and Implications. Middle East Journal 58 3: 403–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
700,000 Czechs Cast Blank Protest Ballots. 1948. Los Angeles times, May 31: 1. http://search.proquest.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/docview/165830662?accountid=11311. Accessed January 10, 2012.Google Scholar
Shi, Tianjian. 1999. Voting and Nonvoting in China: Voting Behavior in Plebiscitary and Limited-choice Elections. Journal of Politics 61 4: 1115–39.Google Scholar
Simpser, Alberto, 2013. Why Governments and Parties Manipulate Elections: Theory, Practice, and Implications. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Stiefbold, Rodney P. 1965. The Significance of Void Ballots in West German Elections. American Political Science Review 59 2: 391–407.Google Scholar
Swearer, Howard R. 1961. The Functions of Soviet Local Elections. Midwest Journal of Political Science 5 2: 129–49.Google Scholar
Uggla, Fredrik. 2008. Incompetence, Alienation, or Calculation? Explaining Levels of Invalid Ballots and Extra-Parliamentary Votes. Comparative Political Studies 41 8: 1141–64.Google Scholar
Zulfikarpasic, Adélaïde. 2001. Le vote blanc: abstention civique ou expression politique? Revue Française de Science Politique 51, 247–68.Google Scholar