Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-gvh9x Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-21T18:40:40.219Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Who Shot the Bullets? Exposure to Violence and Attitudes Toward Peace: Evidence from the 2016 Colombian Referendum

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 October 2020

Guillermo Kreiman Open the ORCID record for Guillermo Kreiman [Opens in a new window]  and
Juan Masullo Open the ORCID record for Juan Masullo [Opens in a new window]
Guillermo Kreiman
Affiliation:
Guillermo Kreiman is a doctoral student in politics at the University of Oxford. guillermo.kreiman@politics.ox.ac.uk.
Juan Masullo
Affiliation:
Juan Masullo is a lecturer in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford. juan.masullo@politics.ox.ac.uk.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Does exposure to violence affect attitudes toward peace? Civilians living in war zones see peace agreements as an opportunity to improve their security prospects. However, in multiparty conflicts, this does not automatically translate into support for peace. Support hinges on the interplay between which faction has victimized civilians in the past and which faction is sitting at the negotiation table. If civilians have been victimized by the group that is involved in the peace agreement, they will be likely to support peace. On the contrary, if they have been victimized by another faction, they will be likely to refrain from supporting peace if they believe that this can trigger retaliatory violence against them. This article explores this argument empirically in the context of the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC; both quantitative and qualitative data yield support to the study’s theoretical expectations.

Keywords

Attitudes toward peaceColombiaViolencePeace AgreementFARCParamilitaries
Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Politics and Society , Volume 62 , Issue 4 , November 2020 , pp. 24 - 49
Copyright
© The Authors, 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the University of Miami

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Conflict of interest: Both authors declare none.

References

Albertus, Michael, and Kaplan, Oliver. 2013. Land Reform as a Counterinsurgency Policy: Evidence from Colombia. Journal of Conflict Resolution 57, 2: 198–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Álvares Vanegas, Eduardo, and Carlos Garzón, Juan. 2016. El país que desveló la ventaja del No. Bogotá: Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP). http://cdn.ideaspaz.org/media/website/document/57fcf03e08dc3.pdf. Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Angulo, Roberto, Díaz, Yadira, Pardo, Renata, and Riveros, Yolanda. 2011. Índice de pobreza multidimensional para Colombia. Working Paper. Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Dirección de Estudios Económicos, Archivos de Economía.Google Scholar
Arjona, Ana. 2016a. Rebelocracy: Social Order in the Colombian Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arjona, Ana. 2016b. War Dynamics and the NO Vote in the Colombian Referendum. Political Violence at a Glance, October 20. http://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2016/10/20/war-dynamics-and-the-no-vote-in-the-colombian-referendum/ Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Arjona, Ana. 2019. Subnational Units, the Locus of Choice, and Theory Building: The Case of Civilian Agency in Civil War. In Inside Countries: Subnational Research in Comparative Politics, ed. Giraudy, Agustina, Moncada, Eduardo, and Snyder, Richard. New York: Cambridge University Press. 214–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bakke, Kristin M., John, O’Loughlin, and Ward, Michael D.. 2009. Reconciliation in Conflict-affected Societies: Multilevel Modeling of Individual and Contextual Factors in the North Caucasus of Russia. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 99, 5: 1012–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balcells, Laia. 2012. The Consequences of Victimization on Political Identities: Evidence from Spain. Politics & Society 40, 3: 311–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bateson, Regina. 2012. Crime Victimization and Political Participation. American Political Science Review 106, 3: 570–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bauer, Michal, et al. 2016. Can War Foster Cooperation? Journal of Economic Perspectives 30, 3: 249–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bellows, John, and Miguel, Edward. 2009. War and Local Collective Action in Sierra Leone. Journal of Public Economics 93, 11–12: 1144–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bia, Michela, and Mattei, Alessandra. 2008. A Stata package for the estimation of the dose- response function through adjustment for the generalized propensity score. Stata Journal 8, 3: 354–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Breuer, Anita. 2007. Institutions of Direct Democracy and Accountability in Latin America’s Presidential Democracies. Democratization 14, 4: 554–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brodzinsky, Sibylla. 2016. Colombia Referendum: Voters Reject Peace Deal with Farc Guerrillas. The Guardian, October 3. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/colombia-referendum-rejects-peace-deal-with-farc. Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Canetti, Daphna, Hall, Brian J., Rapaport, Carmit, and Wayne, Carly. 2013. Exposure to Political Violence and Political Extremism: A Stress-based Process. European Psychologist 18, 4: 263–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Centro de Recursos para el Análysis de Conflictos (CERAC). 2017. Monitor del cese el fuego bialteral y de hostilidades: reporte final. June 30. https://www.blog.cerac.org.co/monitor-del-cese-el-fuego-bilateral-y-de-hostilidades-final. Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica (CNMH). 2013. ¡Basta Ya! Colombia: memorias de Guerra y dignidad. Bogotá: CNMH.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 56, 4: 563–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Costalli, Stefano, and Ruggeri, Andrea. 2019. The Long-term Electoral Legacies of Civil War in Young Democracies: Italy, 1946–1968. Comparative Political Studies 52, 6: 927–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daly, Sarah Zukerman. 2012. Organizational Legacies of Violence: Conditions Favoring Insurgency Onset in Colombia, 1964–1984. Journal of Peace Research 49, 3: 473–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durán-Martínez, Angélica. 2012. Presidents, Parties, and Referenda in Latin America. Comparative Political Studies 45, 9: 1159–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dyrstad, Karin, Buhaug, Halvard, Ringdal, Kristen, Simkus, Albert, and Listhaug, Ola. 2011. Microfoundations of Civil Conflict Reconciliation: Ethnicity and Context. International Interactions 37, 4: 363–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 2003. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97, 1: 75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fergusson, Leopoldo, and Molina, Carlos. 2016. Un vistazo a los resultados del plebiscito. Miscelánea La Paz, October 3. https://sites.google.com/site/miscelaneadelapaz/datos. Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Fergusson, Leopoldo, Querubin, Pablo, Ruiz, Nelson A., and Vargas, Juan F.. 2020. The Real Winner’s Curse. American Journal of Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12508 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flores, Thomas E, and Vargas, Juan F. 2018. Colombia: Democracy, Violence, and the Peace-building Challenge. Conflict Management and Peace Science 35, 6: 581–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franke, Jörg, and Öztürk, Tahir. 2015. Conflict Networks. Journal of Public Economics 126: 104–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallego, Jorge. 2018. Civil Conflict and Voting Behavior: Evidence from Colombia. Conflict Management and Peace Science 35, 6: 601–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
García-Ponce, Omar, Young, Lauren, and Zeitzoff, Thomas. 2020. Anger and Support for Retribution in Mexico’s Drug War. Unpublished mss. http://www.laurenelyssayoung.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Mexico_ViolenceAnger_Article_v4.pdf. Accessed July 15, 2020.Google Scholar
González, Posso, Camilo. 2014. Negotiations with the FARC, 1982–2002. Accord 14: 46–51. https://www.c-r.org/accord-article/negotiations-farc-1982-2002. Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Granada, Soledad, Restrepo, Jorge, and García, Alonso Tobón. 2009. Neoparamilitarismo en Colombia: una herramienta conceptual para la interpretación de dinámicas recientes del conflicto armado colombiano. En Guerra y violencias en Colombia: herramientas e interpretaciones, ed. Aponte, David and Restrepo. Bogotá: Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. 467–500.Google Scholar
Hayes, Bernadette C., and McAllister, Ian. 2001. Who Voted for Peace? Public Support for the 1998 Northern Ireland Agreement. Irish Political Studies 16, 1: 73–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hazlett, Chad. 2020. Angry or Weary? How Violence Impacts Attitudes Toward Peace Among Darfurian Refugees. Journal of Conflict Resolution 64, 5: 844–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hewstone, Miles, Cairns, Ed, Voci, Alberto, Hamberger, Juergen, and Niens, Ulrike. 2006. Intergroup Contact, Forgiveness, and Experience of “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland. Journal of Social Issues 62, 1: 99–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirsch-Hoefler, Sivan, Canetti, Daphna, Rapaport, Carmit, and Hobfoll, Stevan E.. 2016. Conflict Will Harden Your Heart: Exposure to Violence, Psychological Distress, and Peace Barriers in Israel and Palestine. British Journal of Political Science 46, 4: 845–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Idler, Annette. 2016. Colombia Just Voted No on Its Plebiscite for Peace. Here’s Why and What It Means. Washington Post, Monkey Cage, October 3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/10/03/colombia-just-voted-no-on-its-referendum-for-peace-heres-why-and-what-it-means/?utm_term=.917f3260fd24. Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaplan, Oliver. 2018. Resisting War: How Communities Protect Themselves. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Krakowski, Krzysztof. 2017. Resisting Displacement Amid Armed Conflict: Community- Level Conditions that Make People More Likely to Stay. Journal of Peacebuilding & Development 12, 3: 68–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krakowski, Krzysztof. 2020. Pulled Together or Torn Asunder? Community Cohesion After Symmetric and Asymmetric Civil War. Journal of Conflict Resolution, January 26. DOI 10.1177/0022002719897121 Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1991. Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989. World Politics 44, 1: 7–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1995. The Inevitability of Future Revolutionary Surprises. American Journal of Sociology 100, 6: 1528–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liendo, Nicolás, and Maves Braithwaite, Jessica. 2018. Determinants of Colombian Attitudes Toward the Peace Process. Conflict Management and Peace Science 35, 6: 622–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupu, Noam, and Peisakhin, Leonid. 2017. The Legacy of Political Violence Across Generations. American Journal of Political Science 61, 4: 836–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupu, Yonatan, and Wallace, Geoffrey. 2019. Violence and Public Opinion in Ukraine: An Experimental Analysis. Paper presented at Nuffield College, University of Oxford, May 3. https://cess-nuffield.nuff.ox.ac.uk/events/seminar/yonatan-lupu-george-washington-university/ Google ScholarPubMed
Lyall, Jason. 2010. Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War. American Political Science Review 104, 1: 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyall, Jason, Blair, Graeme, and Imai, Kosuke. 2013. Explaining Support for Combatants During Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan. American Political Science Review 107, 4: 679–705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maher, David, and Thomson, Andrew. 2018. A Precarious Peace? The Threat of Paramilitary Violence to the Peace Process in Colombia. Third World Quarterly 39, 11: 2142–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malone, Mary Fran T. 2010. Does Dirty Harry Have the Answer? Citizen Support for the Rule of Law in Central America. Public Integrity 13, 1: 59–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mampilly, Zachariah Cherian. 2012. Rebel Rulers: Insurgent Governance and Civilian Life During War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Marston, Jerome F., Jr. 2020. Resisting Displacement: Leveraging Interpersonal Ties to Remain Despite Criminal Violence in Medellín, Colombia. Comparative Political Studies, April 8. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414020912276 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Masullo, Juan. 2015. The Power of Staying Put: Nonviolent Resistance Against Armed Groups in Colombia. ICNC Monograph Series. Washington, DC: International Center on Nonviolent Conflict.Google Scholar
Masullo, Juan. 2017. A Theory of Civilian Noncooperation with Armed Groups. Civilian Agency and Self-protection in the Colombian Civil War. Doctoral diss., European University Institute.Google Scholar
Masullo, Juan. Forthcoming. Refusing to Cooperate with Armed Groups: Civilian Agency and Civilian Noncooperation in Armed Conflicts. International Studies Review.Google Scholar
Masullo, Juan, and Morisi, Davide. 2019a. Risks and Opportunities of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Information in Colombia’s Peace Referendum. Paper presented to the 42nd Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Lisbon, July 12–15.Google Scholar
Masullo, Juan, and Morisi, Davide. 2019b. The Human Costs of the War on Drugs: Attitudes Toward Militarization of Security in Mexico. Paper presented to the 42nd Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Lisbon, July 12–15.Google Scholar
Matanock, Aila M, and Garbiras-Díaz, Natalia. 2018. Considering Concessions: A Survey Experiment on the Colombian Peace Process. Conflict Management and Peace Science 35, 6: 637–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matanock, Aila M., and García-Sánchez, Miguel. 2017. The Colombian Paradox: Peace Processes, Elite Divisions, and Popular Plebiscites. Daedalus 146, 4: 152–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matanock, Aila M., and Staniland, Paul. 2018. How and Why Armed Groups Participate in Elections. Perspectives on Politics 16, 3: 710–727.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKeon, Celia. 2005. Civil Society: Participating in Peace Processes. In People Building Peace II: Successful Stories of Civil Society, ed. van Tongeren, Paul, Brenk, Malin, Hellema, Marte, and Verhoeven, Juliette. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Meléndez, Marcela. 2016. ¿Qué pasó, Colombia? Foco Económico. Blog, October 4. http://focoeconomico.org/2016/10/04/que-paso-colombia Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Morelo, Daniel. 2016. Así es el país que votó No. La Silla Vacía, Silla Nacional, December 5. https://lasillavacia.com/hagame-el-cruce/asi-es-el-pais-que-voto-no-58201 Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Nasi, Carlo. 2009. Colombia’s Peace Processes, 1982–2002: Conditions, Strategies, and Outcomes. In Colombia: Building Peace in a Time of War, ed. Bouvier, Virginia Marie. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press. 39–64.Google Scholar
Nasi, Carlo, and Rettberg, Angelika. 2019. Colombia’s Farewell to Civil War. In How Negotiations End: Negotiating Behavior in the Endgame, ed. Zartman, William. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 62–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newman, Saul. 2012. Between Optimism and Pessimism: Israeli Attitudes Toward Conflict Resolution in the Post-Oslo Era. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 18, 4: 476–504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nilsson, Desirée. 2012. Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace. International Interactions 38, 2: 243–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pechenkina, Anna O., and Gamboa, Laura. 2019. Who Undermines the Peace at the Ballot Box? The Case of Colombia. Terrorism and Political Violence 31. DOI 10.1080/09546553.2019.1676239 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prem, Mounu, Rivera, Andrés F., Romero, Dario A., and Vargas, Juan F.. 2018. Killing Social Leaders for Territorial Control: The Unintended Consequences of Peace. Working Paper. Universidad del Rosario.Google Scholar
Restrepo, Jorge, Spagat, Micheal, and Vargas, Juan. 2004. The Dynamics of the Colombian Conflict: A New Data Set. Homo Oeconomicus 21, 2: 396–428.Google Scholar
Revista Semana. 2016. Creímos en el perdón de las FARC y se lo concedimos en las urnas. April 10. https://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/bojaya-plebiscito-por-la-paz-devolvio-la-desesperanza/497771. Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Romero, Mauricio. 2003. Paramilitares y autodefensas, 1982–2003. Bogotá: Instituto de Estudios Políticos y Relaciones Internacionales.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2004. What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War? Journal of Peace Research 41, 3: 337–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2006. A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War. Annual Review of Political Science 9, 1: 265–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arturas, Rozenas, Schutte, Sebastian, and Zhukov, Yuri. 2017. The Political Legacy of Violence: The Long-Term Impact of Stalin’s Repression in Ukraine. Journal of Politics 79, 4: 1147–61.Google Scholar
Staniland, Paul. 2015. Armed Groups and Militarized Elections. International Studies Quarterly 59, 4: 694–705.Google Scholar
Steele, Abbey. 2009. Seeking Safety: Avoiding Displacement and Choosing Destinations in Civil Wars. Journal of Peace Research 46, 3: 419–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steele, Abbey. 2011. Electing Displacement: Political Cleansing in Apartadó, Colombia. Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, 3: 423–45.Google Scholar
Steele, Abbey. 2017. Democracy and Displacement in Colombia’s Civil War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steele, Abbey, and Schubiger, Livia I.. 2018. Democracy and Civil War: The Case of Colombia. Conflict Management and Peace Science 35, 6: 587–600.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tellez, Juan Fernando. 2019a. Peace Agreement Design and Public Support for Peace: Evidence from Colombia. Journal of Peace Research 56, 6: 827–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tellez, Juan Fernando. 2019b. Worlds Apart: Conflict Exposure and Preferences for Peace. Journal of Conflict Resolution 63, 4: 1053–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Verdad Abierta.com. 2016a. San José de Apartadó: ¿asediado por los “Gaitanistas”? February 15. https://verdadabierta.com/san-jose-de-apartado-asediado-por-los-gaitanistas Accessed August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Verdad Abierta.com. 2016b. En San José de Apartadó exigen verificar presencia paramilitar. August 11. https://verdadabierta.com/en-san-jose-de-apartado-exigen-verificar-presencia-paramilita. Accessed: August 13, 2019.Google Scholar
Visconti, Giancarlo. 2019. Policy Preferences After Crime Victimization: Panel and Survey Evidence from Latin America. British Journal of Political Science, February 12. DOI 10.1017/S0007123418000297 Google Scholar
Michael, Weintraub, Vargas, Juan F., and Flores, Thomas E.. 2015. Vote Choice and Legacies of Violence: Evidence from the 2014 Colombian Presidential Elections. Research & Politics, May 6. DOI 10.1177/2053168015573348 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhukov, Yuri M., and Talibova, Roya. 2018. Stalin’s Terror and the Long-term Political Effects of Mass Repression. Journal of Peace Research 55, 2: 267–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Kreiman and Masullo Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PYQ7T0
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Kreiman and Masullo supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Kreiman and Masullo supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 596 KB