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Electoral System, Coalitional Disintegration, and the Future of Chile's Concertación

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 October 2022

Peter M. Siavelis
Peter M. Siavelis*
Affiliation:
Wake Forest University
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Abstract

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While there is much disagreement concerning the political effects of Chile's two-member district binominal election system, most agree that it provides strong incentives for the formation and maintenance of coalitions. This article takes on these assumptions, contending that the electoral system's coalition-inducing tendencies are actually quite context dependent. Focusing primarily on the governing Concertación coalition and relying on analyses of relative levels of electoral support among parties, a “reward” insurance policy for electoral losers, and the timing and sequencing of elections, this article outlines the conditions under which the coalition-enhancing tendencies of the electoral system are at their strongest and their weakest. It finds that these variables align to provide a less than propitious environment for the maintenance of the Concertación coalition in the lead up to the 2005 elections. In theoretical terms, the article challenges direct and mechanistic connections between electoral formulae and party outcomes, arguing that we should not be surprised when subtle contextual variations cause theorized outcomes not to occur. These findings contribute to an emerging consensus that many of the theorized rules on the connection between electoral and party systems are more complex and context dependent than is usually supposed and should be applied with greater caution.

Resumen

Resumen

Mientras los efectos políticos del sistema electoral binominal chileno (de dos escaños por distrito) han sido arduamente debatidos, la mayoría concuerda en que éste provee fuertes incentivos para la formación y el mantenimiento de coaliciones. Este artículo parte de estos supuestos argumentando que las tendencias de coalición inducidas por dicho sistema electoral son, en realidad, altamente dependientes del contexto. Centrándose principalmente en la Concertación (coalición gobernante) y basándose en análisis sobre valores relativos de apoyo electoral entre partidos, en una póliza de seguro en forma de “recompensa” para los perdedores electorales, y por último, en la sincronización y secuenciación de las elecciones, este artículo esboza las condiciones bajo las cuales las tendencias hacia el mejoramiento de la coalición en el sistema electoral se hallan en su punto más fuerte y más débil. El artículo encuentra que estas variables se alinean para proveer un ambiente menos que propicio para el mantenimiento de la Concertación en el poder hasta las elecciones del 2005. En términos teóricos, el artículo desafía asociaciones directas y mecánicas entre fórmulas electorales y resultados partidarios, argumentando que no debemos sorprendernos cuando mínimas variaciones contextuales desafían las predicciones teóricas. Estos resultados se suman al consenso emergente que sostiene que ciertas reglas teóricas sobre la conexión entre sistemas electorales y de partidos son más complejas y dependientes del contexto que lo usualmente reconocido, y por lo tanto, deben ser aplicadas con más cuidado.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 40 , Issue 1 , 2005 , pp. 56 - 82
Copyright
Copyright © 2005 by the University of Texas Press

Footnotes

1.

Thanks to Evelyne Huber, Jonathan Hartlyn, Greg Weeks, Scott Morgenstern, and four anonymous reviewers from LARR for their useful comments and suggestions.

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