Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-swr86 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-22T17:42:00.607Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Effects of the Criminal Justice System on the Control of Crime: A Quantitative Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2024

Shlomo Shinnar
Affiliation:
Albert Einstein College of Medicine
Reuel Shinnar
Affiliation:
School of Engineering, The City College of New York

Extract

Crime and its prevention has become a much debated issue. Claims and counter claims are made as to the real extent and the possibility of controlling crime. Law makers are considering legislating heavier sentences, which raises questions about the role of prison sentences in crime prevention. Most discussions of crime and its prevention lack a way of generating quantitative estimates of what alternative policies would achieve and what they would cost. A recent paper by one of the authors (Avi-Itzhak and Shinnar, 1973) attempts to develop a mathematical model simple enough to make approximate quantitative estimates based on available statistical information. In this paper we try to simplify the model further and to present it in a way that will make it more accessible to the policy maker and social scientist. We also try to apply it to conditions in New York.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © 1975 The Law and Society Association.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

The authors are indebted to Professor Al Madansky from the University of Chicago, Professor Al Blumstein from Carnegie Mellon, as well as to Dr. R. Conger for many helpful comments. Part of the research was supported by a grant from the Sloan foundation.

References

Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (1968) Persons Under the Supervision of the Federal Probation System 1968. Washington: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Avi-Itzhak, Benjamin and Shinnar, Reuel (1973) “Quantitative Models in Crime Control,” 1 Journal of Criminal Justice 185.Google Scholar
Belkin, Jacob, Blumstein, Alfred, and Glass, William (1972) “Recidivism as a Feedback Process: An Analytical Model and Empirical Validation,” 1 Journal of Criminal Justice 7.Google Scholar
Biderman, D.D. (1966) “Social Indicators and Goals” in Bauer, A.R. (ed.) Social Indicators. Cambridge: M.I.T. Press.Google Scholar
Blumstein, Alfred and Cohen, Jacqueline (1973) “A Theory of the Stability of Punishment,” 64 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology 198.Google Scholar
Chambers, Marcia (1975) “Lower Courts are Settling 80% of City Felony Cases,” New York Times (February 11).Google Scholar
Christensen, Ronald (1967) “Projected Percentages of U.S. Population with Criminal Arrest and Conviction Records,” in The President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice, Task Force Report: Science and Technology Appendix J. Washington: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Clark, Ramsey (1970) Crime in America: Observations on its Nature, Causes, Prevention and Control. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Clarke, S.H. (1975) “Getting them out of Circulation: Does Incarceration of Juvenile Offenders Reduce Crime?” 65 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology 528.Google Scholar
Conklin, John (1972) Robbery and the Criminal Justice System. New York: Lippincott.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, Isaac (1973) “Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation,” 81 Journal of Political Economy 521.Google Scholar
Evangelista, John J., Katz, Stanley and Shinnar, Reuel (1969) “Scale up Criteria for Stirred Tank Reactors,” 15 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Journal 843.Google Scholar
FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin (1966) “Crime is a Worldwide Problem,” 1966 FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin 1 (December).Google Scholar
Feeny, F. and Wear, A. (1972) “Prevention and Control of Robbery,” Report to the National Institute of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice.Google Scholar
Glazer, Nathan (1971) “The Limits of Social Policy,” 52 Commentary 51 (September).Google Scholar
Office, Home (1969) Criminal Statistics England and Wales 1968. London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office.Google Scholar
Hughes, John (1971) “Crime: Its Causes, Control and Effect on Society,” in 1971 Report of the New York State Joint Legislative Committee. State of New York Legislation Document Volume 26.Google Scholar
Krambeck, Fred J., Katz, Stanley and Shinnar, Reuel (1969) “Interpretation of Tracer Experiments with Fluctuating Throughput,” 8 IEC Fundamentals 431.Google Scholar
Martinson, Robert (1974) “What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform,” 35 Public Interest (Spring 1974).Google Scholar
Naor, Pinhas and Shinnar, Reuel (1963) “Evaluation and Representation of Residence Time Distributions,” 2 IEC Fundamentals 278.Google Scholar
New York City Police Department (1960-1970) Statistical Report. New York: Bureau of Printing, New York City Police Department.Google Scholar
New York State Department of Correctional Services, Annual Reports of the State Commission of Correction. Albany: Office of Program Planning, Evaluation and Research.Google Scholar
New York State Department of Correctional Services 1962, 1964, 1973) Term Studies of Inmates in New York State Correctional Institutes. Albany: Office of Program Planning, Evaluation and Research.Google Scholar
New York State Department of Correctional Services (1973) Characteristics of New Commitments 1973. Albany: Office of Program Planning, Evaluation and Research.Google Scholar
Raab, Selwyn (1973) “Plea Bargains Resolve 8 of 10 Homicide Cases,” New York Times (January 27).Google Scholar
Seidman, David and Couzens, M. (1974) “Getting the Crime Rate Down: Political Pressure and Crime Reporting,” 8 Law & Society Review 457.Google Scholar
Select Committee on the Administration of Justice (1970) Parole Board Reform in California: “Order out of Chaos.” Assembly of the State of California.Google Scholar
United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census (1960) Subject Reports: Inmates of Institutions 1969. Washington: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
United States Department of Justice (1939-1970), Uniform Crime Reports 1939-1970. Washington: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
United States Department of Justice (1950) “Prisoners in State and Federal Institutions 1950,” National Prisoner Statistics 1950. Washington: Federal Bureau of Prisons.Google Scholar
United States Department of Justice (1960) “Characteristics of State Prisoners 1960,” National Prisoner Statistics. Washington: Federal Bureau of Prisons.Google Scholar
United States Department of Justice (1970) “State Prisoners: Admissions and Releases 1970,” National Prisoner Statistics. Washington: Federal Bureau of Prisons.Google Scholar
United States Department of Justice (1972) “Prisoners in State and Federal Institutions for Adult Felons,” National Prisoner Statistics Bulletin Number 47. Washington: Federal Bureau of Prisons.Google Scholar
United States Department of Justice (1972) Survey of Inmates of Local Jails: Advance Report. Washington: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Wilson, James Q. (1973) “If Every Criminal Would be Punished if Caught,” New York Times Magazine (January 28).Google Scholar
Wolfgang, Marvin, Figlio, Robert M. and Sellin, Thorsten (1972) Delinquency in a Birth Cohort. Chicago: Chicago University Press.Google Scholar