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SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COMPUTER ANALYSIS OF INSECTS AND WEATHER: GRASSHOPPERS AND RAINFALL IN ALBERTA

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 May 2012

Daniel L. Johnson  and
Adla Worobec
Daniel L. Johnson
Affiliation:
Agriculture Canada Research Station, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada T1J 4B1
Adla Worobec
Affiliation:
The DPA Group Inc., 400 Monenco Place, 801 – 6 Avenue Southwest, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P 3W3
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Abstract

New technology allows the rapid mapping of point or polygon variables, the correlation of maps, and the use of maps as variables in computer models. An illustration is the use of map correlation to investigate how changes in abundance of adult grasshoppers relate to rainfall in Alberta: maps of monthly rainfall, monthly hours of sunlight and annual grasshopper counts (8391 survey records) from a 5-year period were contoured and correlated. The methods of smoothing are described. Correlograms of Moran's I over distance show spatial autocorrelation of grasshopper abundance on a geographic scale. The grasshopper counts were autocorrelated to 20–30 km on most maps, and the relationship of correlograms to contour mapping is discussed. Quotient maps were produced: each population–abundance map was divided by the map from the previous year, and the results were correlated with monthly rainfall maps. There was significant association between areas of increase and levels of rainfall. Population tended to decline in areas of above-average rainfall. A simple model enabled a forecast of grasshopper distribution from the previous year's grasshopper population, monthly rainfall maps, and sunlight hours during the previous August.

Résumé

La nouvelle technologie de l'analyse spatiale permet la transcription sur carte des variables de point ou polygone, la corrélation des cartes et leur utilisation en tant que variables comme modèles pour ordinateur. Pour illustrer ces méthodes, nous avons utilisé la corrélation des cartes pour éxaminer en détail la relation entre les changements en nombre de sauterelles adultes et le niveau des précipitations en Alberta. Nous avons construit les cartes de précipitations mensuelles, du nombre d'heures d'éclairage solaire et des comptages annuels de sauterelles (dossiers de l'étude 8391) sur une période de 5 ans, et les avons comparées. Les méthodes d'aplanissement sont décrites. Nous avons construit les corrélogrammes de Moran I sur une distance afin d'estimer l'autocorrélation spatiale de l'abondance des sauterelles sur une échelle géographique. Les comptages de sauterelles ont été autocorrélés sur des distances de 20 à 30 km sur échelles de la plupart des cartes, et la relation entre les corrélogrammes et le tracé des cartes est expliqué. Les cartes «quotient» résultent de la division de chaque carte sur la densité de la population par la carte de l'année précédente. Puis les cartes «quotient» ont été mises en corrélation avec les cartes de précipitations mensuelles. Une relation significative est apparue entre les aires d'augmentation de la population de sauterelles et le niveau de précipitations. Les zones de déclin de la population ont tendance à coïncider avec les zones ayant un niveau de précipitations supérieur à la moyenne. Nous avons préparé et testé un modèle simple afin de produire une carte prévoyant le nombre de sauterelles à partir de la population de sauterelles de l'année précédente, des cartes de précipitations mensuelles et des heures d'éclairage solaire durant le mois d'août précédent.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Memoirs of the Entomological Society of Canada , Volume 120 , Supplement S146 , 1988 , pp. 33 - 48
Copyright
Copyright © Entomological Society of Canada 1988

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Footnotes

1

Present address: TYDAC Technologies, 1600 Carling Avenue, Suite 310, Ottawa, Ontario K1Z 8R7.

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