Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-2pzkn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-08T09:11:21.381Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

1 UK economic outlook: Brisk but not better growth

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 May 2021

Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
UK Forecast
Copyright
© National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2021

Footnotes

1

We would like to thank Richard Barwell, Rhys Bidder, Jagjit Chadha, Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt, Adrian Pabst and Kemar Whyte for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 26 April 2021, more recent data are incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk).

References

REFERENCES

Armantier, O., Goldman, L., Koşar, G., Lu, J., Pomerantz, R. and van de Klaaw, W. (2020) ‘How have households used their stimulus payments and how would they spend the next?’, Liberty Street Economics blog, New York Federal Reserve, October 2020Google Scholar
Bank of England (2021a) ‘How has Covid affected firms’ costs and prices?’, Bank Overground, April 2021Google Scholar
Bank of England (2021b) Monetary Policy Report, FebruaryGoogle Scholar
Barwell, R., Chadha, J. and Grady, M. (2020) Monetary Policy inTroubledTimes, NIESR Occasional Paper No. 59Google Scholar
Borchert, I and Morita-Jaeger, M. (2021), ‘Taking Stock of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement: Trade in Services and Digital Trade’, UKTPO Briefing Paper 53 – January 2021Google Scholar
Born, B., Müller, G.J., Schularick, M. and Sedláček, P. (2019) ‘The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment’, The Economic Journal 129 (623), October 2019, pages 2722-2744 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chadha, J. (2017) ‘Commentary: The Economic Landscape of the UK’, National Institute Economic Review 240, May 2017CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chadha, J., Küçük, H. and Pabst, A. (eds.) (2021) Designing a New Fiscal Framework: Understanding and Confronting Uncertainty, NIESR Occasional Paper No. 61Google Scholar
Crafts, N. (2019) ‘Persistent Productivity Failure in the UK: Is the EU Really to Blame?’, National Institute Economic Review 247, February 2019Google Scholar
Ebell, M. (2017) ‘Will NewTrade Deals Soften the Blow of Hard Brexit?’, NIESR blog, January 2017Google Scholar
Fuentes, N.M. and Moder, I. (2020) ‘The scarring effects of past crises on the global economy’, ECB Economic Bulletin 8/2020Google Scholar
Hantzsche, A. and Young, G. (2019), ‘The Economic Impact of Prime Minister Johnson’s New Brexit Deal’, National Institute Economic Review 250, November 2019.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holtham, G (2021) Monetary Policy and the Value of Public Debt in Chadha, J., Küçük, H., Pabst, A. (eds) Designing a New Fiscal Framework: Understanding and Confronting Uncertainty (pp. 71-86), NIESR Occasional Paper No. 61.Google Scholar
Hughson, H. (2021) ‘What are the implications of Covid-19 for wealth inequality?’, Economomics Observatory, 17 March 2021Google Scholar
Idriss, O. and Rocks, S. (2020) ‘Did hospital capacity affect mortality during the pandemic’s first wave?’, Health Foundation, November 2020Google Scholar
Ilzetzki, E. (2021) ‘Post-Covid-19 potential output in the euro area’,VoxEU, January 2021Google Scholar
Kaplan, G., Violante, G.L. and Weidman, J. (2014) ‘The wealth hand-to-mouth’, NBERWorking Paper 20073Google Scholar
Knotek, E.S., McMain, M., Schoenle, R., Dietrich, A.M., Myrseth, K.O.R. and Weber, M. (2021) ‘Expected Post-Pandemic Consumption and Scarred Expectations from COVID-19’, FRB Cleveland Economic Commentary 2021-11, AprilCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Macqueen, R. (2020a), “Box B. Upside and downside risks to inflation”, Prospects for the UK Economy, National Institute Economic Review, No. 253, August 2020.Google Scholar
Macqueen, R. (2020b) ‘Labour market policies and productivity’, National Institute Economic Review 254, November 2020Google Scholar
Malmendier, U. and Shen, L.S. (2019) ‘Scarred Consumption’, Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Papers 1259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Office for National Statistics (2021) ‘Productivity economic commentary, UK: October to December 2020’, 14 April 2021.Google Scholar
Pissarides, C. (2020) ‘As COVID-19 accelerates automation, how do we stop the drift into long-term unemployment?’, LSE Blog, 21 JulyGoogle Scholar
Smith, J. (2021) ‘Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2021’, Resolution Foundation, April 2021Google Scholar
Tenreyro, S. (2020) “Monetary policy during pandemics: inflation before, during and after Covid-19”, Speech, Bank of England, April 2020Google Scholar
, McKinsey (2021) ‘Will productivity and growth return after the COVID-19 crisis?’, Special Report, McKİnsey Global Institute, March 30, 2021.Google Scholar
Van Ark, B. (2021) ‘Statement following the Q4-2020 Flash Estimates of Productivity for the UK’, The Productivity Institute, February 23, 2021.Google Scholar