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The CBI ‘Industrial Trends Survey’ as a Measure of Current Manufacturing Output

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

M. Gregory
M. Gregory*
Affiliation:
National Institute
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Extract

‘The ideal situation would be one in which all the data were bang up to date, completely reliable and mutually consistent. We should then be able to say with confidence what had been happening and where we were. Unfortunately this is hardly ever possible. The first thing we have to forecast is the past.’

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 52 , May 1970 , pp. 52 - 56
Copyright
Copyright © 1970 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) A. K. Cairncross, Economic Forecasting, Presidential Address to the Royal Economic Society, 1969.

(2) Before 1964 the sample of firms questioned was chosen to be representative, in terms of size and industry and compo sition of manufacturing industry as a whole, and the replies were aggregated directly. Since 1964 an explicit weighting procedure has been used to take these factors into account.

(1) C. A. Blyth, ‘The ACMA—Bank of NSW industrial trends survey : its use in estimating changes in statistical series’, The Economic Record, December 1967; Board of Trade, ‘Some of the results of the industrial surveys of the FBI compared with official statistics’, Economic Trends, September 1965; J. R. Shepherd, ‘The FBI industrial trends inquiry’, National Institute Economic Review no. 26, November 1963.

(2) The algebraic proof of this is given in Shepherd (op. cit., Appendix 1). Using only the first 15 of the observations included above Shepherd obtained a closely similar result for equation (1) :

(1) D. R. Glynn, ‘The CBI industrial trends survey’, Applied Economics, August 1969.