The upturn in economic activity that has been clearly visible for the last year in both Japan and the US now appears to be spreading to Europe. The factors affecting the upturn are diverse, but it appears to be investment led, at least in the US and Japan, and to a lesser extent in Germany and the UK. Chart 1 plots the investment to income ratio for the major four economies over the past, along with our forecast for the medium term. The investment-income ratio has fallen in France and Germany over the past ten years, but it has reached relatively high levels in Japan in the last four years.