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Labour Supplies: Trends and Prospects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

J. R. Shepherd
J. R. Shepherd*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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Extract

The unemployment and vacancy figures suggest that labour is scarcer than at any time since 1957; and in June the FBI Inquiry showed a sharp increase in the number of employers who reported that they found labour more difficult to get than four months earlier (chart 1). This note looks at past and prospective trends in the supply of labour, in particular at the importance of the bulge in birth-rates after the war, the tendency for more women to join the labour force, and the significance of migration.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 16 , July 1961 , pp. 17 - 23
Copyright
Copyright © 1961 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) Appendix table 6.

(2) Employment throughout this article refers to civil employment; the armed forces and the self-employed are excluded.

(1) European Economic Community : General Statistical Bulletin, no. 6, 1961. This calculation is based on participation rates, and takes no account of possible reductions in unemployment—in Italy, for example.

(2) The quarterly pattern of births in England and Wales from 1946 to 1948 was :

(1) Report on Defence 1961, Cmnd. 1288, February 1961. An estimate of total strength is given for 1962; subsequently the number of regulars is expected to be stable, but the total will fall with the disappearance of the remaining National Service men.

(2) A participation rate is the proportion of the population in a particular age-group who are employed or seeking employment.

(1) This is not confirmed by the Ministry of Labour overtime returns for May. But these are not wholly comparable in coverage with earlier figures, and also refer to Whit-week, in which conditions may be abnormal.