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Summary and Appraisal

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

A year ago world output was rising much faster than we realised at the time, as stocks were rebuilt after the recession and consumers began to spend a higher proportion of their incomes, particularly on deferred purchases of cars and other durable goods. Though the pace has not been maintained, the increase in the volume of output in the OECD area still reached 5–5 1/2 per cent for the year as a whole. We expect a steady rate of expansion of some 4–4 1/2 per cent a year in both 1977 and 1978, with fixed investment accounting for a higher proportion of growth than in 1976 and stock movements for substantially less.

Type
Other
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 79 , February 1977 , pp. 3 - 5
Copyright
Copyright © 1977 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) The latest (January) trade figures were published too late for them to be taken into account in our forecast. But we would in any case have largely discounted them since, particularly on the recording of imports, there are obviously unresolved problems about the allocation between December and January. Averaging the two months' figures gives a more sensible picture, and one which is broadly consistent with our forecast.