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The UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Garry Young
Garry Young*
Affiliation:
National Institute Domestic Econometric Model
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Extract

Most of the economic news since our last forecast in May points to an earlier reduction in the rate of economic growth in the UK than we had been expecting at that time. At the aggregate level, GDP growth for the first quarter of the year was revised downwards slightly to 0.7 per cent and growth in the second quarter is estimated to have fallen to 0.6 per cent. Recent business surveys indicate less optimism than was apparent in the earlier part of the year. Other recent figures are indicative of a lack of optimism among households: the weakness of retail sales has continued, house prices have fallen again and the decline in the level of unemployment has abated. A similar pattern is being observed outside of the UK with growth falling more quickly than expected in most of the G7 countries.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 153 , August 1995 , pp. 9 - 29
Copyright
Copyright © 1995 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

∗

The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. I am grateful to Andrew Britton, Ray Barrell, Peter Westaway and Nigel Pain for helpful comments and discussions and to Anne Perrin and David Poulizac for their help with the database and charts. The forecast was completed on July 31st 1995.

References

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Westaway, P.F., (1995), ‘The role of macroeconomic models in the policy design process’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 151, February, pp. 53–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wren-Lewis, S. (1985), ‘The quantification of survey data on expectations’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 113, August, pp. 39–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Young, G., (1993), ‘Debt deflation and the company sector: the economic effects of balance sheet adjustment’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 144, May, pp. 74–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar