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The UK Economy

Section I. Recent developments and summary of the forecast

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Nigel Pain  and
Martin Weale
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Extract

After a pronounced slowdown at the turn of the year, economic growth has recovered during the course of 2002. Revised estimates now suggest that GDP rose by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter and, based on our monthly GDP projections, we estimate that growth was 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, marginally below trend rates. It now appears increasingly unlikely that the Budget forecast of 2-2½ per cent growth in 2002 can be attained, and we expect to see growth of 1.4 per cent for the year as a whole.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 182 , October 2002 , pp. 37 - 43
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Arcadia Group plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Dixons plc, Ernst and Young LLP, GlaxoSmithKline, INVESCO Europe Ltd, Marks and Spencer plc, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (Europe) Ltd, Morley Fund Management, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd, Pearson plc, Rio Tinto plc, Standard Chartered Bank, UBS Warburg, Unilever plc and Watson Wyatt LLP.

References

Barrell, R. and Hubert, F, (1999), Modern Budgeting in the Public Sector: Treasury Rules in a Comparative Context, London, NIESR.Google Scholar
Budget 2002, HM Treasury HC592, London, The Stationery Office.Google Scholar