• Global GDP growth will slow from 5.1 per cent in 2004 to 4.2 per cent in 2005; world trade growth will slow from 9.1 per cent to 6.3 per cent.

• The oil price is expected to remain above $50 a barrel, although in real terms it is well below the highs of the early 1980s.

• Nearly 25 per cent of the deterioration of the US current account since 1997 can be attributed to net trade in petroleum products, and reflects the oil price.

• A 10 per cent revaluation of the Chinese renminbi would have little impact on the US current account deficit.

• Rapid real house price growth will continue to support US housing investment in 2005 and 2006.