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Chapter II. The World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

Output in the OECD area both last year and in the early part of 1976 now appears to have been higher than we previously supposed. It now looks as though it should increase in the aggregate by about 5 per cent both this year and next after falling by only 1½ per cent in 1975. For industrial production alone, which last year declined by 8 per cent, we expect a rise of 9–10 per cent in 1976. Business investment is still at a low ebb, but rebuilding of stocks will make an important contribution this year and demand from the personal sector has strengthened markedly both for housing and for consumer goods and services.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 76 , May 1976 , pp. 25 - 44
Copyright
Copyright © 1976 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Note (1) page 33 For both Belgium and the Netherlands the figures given here are based on national definitions. On the standardised method of calculation used in table 4 the unemployment rate would probably work out lower for Belgium but higher for the Netherlands (see F. K. Jones, S. Hays and L. F. Campbell- Boross, ‘Notes on statistics of manpower costs and unemploy ment in major industrial countries’, National Institute Economic Review no. 56, May 1971).

Note (1) page 35 This figure is calculated, as are other prices and values in this section unless otherwise indicated, in terms of ‘new’ SDRs (that is a weighted average of currency values, see National Institute Economic Review, no. 69, August 1974, page 45).

Note (1) page 42 It should, however, be noted when National Institute and OECD forecasts are compared that the National Institute tries to anticipate policy changes, except in the United Kingdom, whereas OECD assumes unchanged policies in all cases.

Note (1) page 44 Although trade forecasts for the OECD and for individual countries were not published in February 1974 and 1975, they were prepared and used in the discussion in the text. The current balance forecasts were published only in 1974.

Note (2) page 44 The OECD 1974 forecasts were made before the second oil price forecast and quite soon after the first; they are not, therefore, comparable.

Note (3) page 44 1974: actual -12 1/2%, NIER -10%; 1975: actual +3 1/2%. NIER +3 %, OECD +1 %.