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The implications of the Boskin Report

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Nicholas Oulton
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Abstract

The Boskin Commission has claimed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently overestimating the true rate of inflation by 1.1 percentage points per annum. This article assesses the evidence for this conclusion and its implications for the measurement of past and future US economic performance. If Boskin is right, US GDP growth in the period 1970 to 1996 has been underestimated by about 0.9 per cent per annum. Some at least of the methodological changes recommended by Boskin will probably be adopted. As a result US GDP growth will appear to rise, eventually by as much as 0.5 per cent per annum, even though no genuine improvement in economic performance has actually occurred. Boskin has implications for the UK too. Recent evidence suggests that use of a formula recommended by Boskin for averaging price quotes together can by itself reduce UK inflation by 0.4 per cent per annum.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 165 , July 1998 , pp. 89 - 98
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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