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Section II. The Demand for Domestic Appliances

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

The original article was prepared during 1960 and published in November of that year; it dealt with the prospects, up to 1970, for sales of television sets, refrigerators, washing machines and vacuum cleaners. Its main conclusion was that “ the period of rapidly expanding sales is over for these four appliances. Taking them together, sales rose about 18 per cent a year (at constant prices) from 1950 to 1955, and 15 per cent a year from 1955 to 1959; the prospect for 1959 to 1965 is for a rise of 2½-5 per cent a year, with no acceleration likely in 1965-70. Output is likely to go up a little more slowly than sales, since supplies were rising well above sales in 1959 ”.

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 40 , May 1967 , pp. 44 - 54
Copyright
Copyright © 1967 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

note (1) page 45 See footnote to table 9 for the method used.

note (1) page 46 ‘Ownership’ includes any renting of appliances through out.

note (2) page 46 See chart 6, page 31, of the original article.

note (1) page 47 Recent estimates suggest that about 5 per cent of current demand for vacuum cleaners, 2 per cent of current demand for washing-machines and 1 per cent of current demand for refrigerators is accounted for by duplicate purchases. (Source: A. G. B. Home Audit.)

note (2) page 47 Social class can be considered a surrogate for income level.

note (1) page 48 The lower limit of the ownership forecasts were taken in all cases.

note (2) page 48 This is halfway between the trade estimate at the time— of a life of fifteen years—and the estimate used in the forecast of ten years.

note (1) page 49 The Radio and Television Retailers' Association esti mates that between two-thirds and three-quarters of new deliveries are now to rental companies and that approximately 50 per cent of sets in use are on rental agreements.

note (1) page 52 Spindryers are presumably sold mainly to the owners of single tub machines (though some may be sold to households which do not possess a washing machine at all). It is esti mated that at the moment the stock of single tub washing machines is about 5.5 million, and the stock of spindryers about 2 million. But the number of single tub machines is already declining, and some of them are too near the end of their life to justify the supplement of a spindryer. Perhaps in all some 1 1/2-2 million spindryers may be sold in the next five years, with declining sales thereafter.

note (1) page 54 The trends to quality improvement shown in tables 4 and 5 of the Appendix are assumed to continue.

note (2) page 54 For the period 1965-75, the lower limit gives a figure of 5.7 per cent a year, and the upper limit a figure of 7.9 per cent.

note (3) page 54 However, an increasing proportion of demand in recent years has been met from imports : see Appendix II, page 65.