Hostname: page-component-7479d7b7d-767nl Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-12T07:22:59.056Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Confidence intervals on stratigraphic ranges

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 April 2016

Charles R. Marshall
Charles R. Marshall*
Affiliation:
Committee on Evolutionary Biology & Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 5734 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, Illinois 60637
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Observed stratigraphic ranges almost always underestimate true longevities. Strauss and Sadler (1987, 1989) provide a method for calculating confidence intervals on the endpoints of local stratigraphic ranges. Their method can also be applied to composite sections; confidence intervals may be placed on times of origin and extinction for entire species or lineages. Confidence interval sizes depend only on the length of the stratigraphic range and the number of fossil horizons. The technique's most important assumptions are that fossil horizons are distributed randomly and that collecting intensity has been uniform over the stratigraphic range. These assumptions are more difficult to test and less likely to be fulfilled for composite sections than for local sections.

Confidence intervals give useful baseline estimates of the incompleteness of the fossil record, even if the underlying assumptions cannot be tested. Confidence intervals, which can be very large, should be calculated when the fossil record is used to assess absolute rates of molecular or morphological evolution, especially for poorly preserved groups. Confidence intervals have other functions: to determine how rich the fossil record has to be before radiometric dating errors become the dominant source of error in estimated times of origin or extinction; to predict future fossil finds; to predict which species with fossil records should be extant; and to assess phylogenetic hypotheses and taxonomic assignments.

Type
Articles
Information
Paleobiology , Volume 16 , Issue 1 , Winter 1990 , pp. 1 - 10
Copyright
Copyright © The Paleontological Society 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Literature Cited

Archer, M., and Bartholomai, A. 1978. Tertiary mammals of Australia: a synoptic review. Alcheringa 2:1–19.Google Scholar
Archer, M., Flannery, T. F., Ritchie, A., and Molnar, R. E. 1985. First Mesozoic mammal from Australia an early Cretaceous monotreme. Nature 318:363–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Archer, M., Hand, S., and Godthelp, H. 1986. Uncovering Australia's Dreamtime. Surrey Beatty and Sons; Sydney.Google Scholar
Barrowclough, G. F. 1983. Biochemical studies of microevolutionary processes. Pp. 223–261. In Brush, A. H., and Clark, G. A. Jr. (eds.), Perspectives in Ornithology. Cambridge University Press; New York.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beverley, S. M., and Wilson, A. C. 1984. Molecular evolution in Drosophila and the higher Diptera II. A time scale for fly evolution. Journal of Molecular Evolution 21:1–13.Google Scholar
Britten, R. J. 1986. Rates of DNA sequence evolution differ between taxonomic groups. Science 231:1393–1398.Google Scholar
Cheetham, A. H. 1986. Tempo of evolution in a Neogene bryozoan: rates of morphological change within and across species boundaries. Paleobiology 12:190–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harland, W. B., Cox, A. V., Llewellyn, P. G., Pickton, C. A. G., Smith, A. G., and Walters, R. 1982. A Geologic Time Scale. Cambridge University Press; Cambridge.Google Scholar
Hayashida, H., and Miyata, T. 1983. Unusual evolutionary conservation and frequent DNA segment exchange in class I genes of the major histocompatibility complex. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 80:2671–2675.Google Scholar
Helm-Bychowski, K. M., and Wilson, A. C. 1986. Rates of nuclear DNA evolution in pheasant-like birds: evidence from restriction maps. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 83:688–692.Google Scholar
Kessler, L. G., and Avise, J. C. 1985. A comparative description of mitochondrial DNA differentiation in selected avian and other vertebrate genera. Molecular Biology and Evolution 2:109–125.Google Scholar
McKinney, M. L. 1986a. Biostratigraphic gap analysis. Geology 14:36–38.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKinney, M. L. 1986b. How biostratigraphic gaps form. Journal of Geology 94:875–884.Google Scholar
Marshall, C. R.In press. The fossil record and estimating divergence times between lineages: maximum divergence times and the importance of reliable phylogenies. Journal of Molecular Evolution.Google Scholar
Mooi, R. 1989. Living and fossil genera of the Clypeasteroida (Echinoidea: Echinodermata): an illustrated key and annotated checklist. Smithsonian Contributions to Zoology 488:1–51.Google Scholar
Paul, C. R. C. 1982. The adequacy of the fossil record. Pp. 75–117. In Joysey, K. A., and Friday, A. E. (eds.), Problems of Phylogenetic Reconstruction. Academic Press; London.Google Scholar
Prager, E. M., and Brush, A. H., Nolan, R. A., Nakanishi, M., and Wilson, A. C. 1974. Slow evolution of transferrin and albumin in birds according to micro-complement fixation analysis. Journal of Molecular Evolution 3:243–262.Google Scholar
Ripley, B. D. 1987. Stochastic Simulation. John Wiley & Sons; New York.Google Scholar
Seilacher, A. 1979. Constructional morphology of sand dollars. Paleobiology 5:191–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaw, A. B. 1964. Time in Stratigraphy. McGraw-Hill; New York.Google Scholar
Shields, G. F., and Wilson, A. C. 1987. Calibration of mitochondrial DNA evolution in geese. Journal of Molecular Evolution 24:212–217.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Smith, A. B. 1984. Echinoid Paleobiology. George Allen and Unwin; London.Google Scholar
Smith, A. B. 1988. Phylogenetic relationships, divergence times, and rates of molecular evolution for camarodont sea urchins. Molecular Biology and Evolution 5:345–365.Google Scholar
Springer, M., and Lilje, A. 1988. Biostratigraphy and gap analysis: the expected sequence of biostratigraphic events. Journal of Geology 96:228–236.Google Scholar
Strauss, D., and Sadler, P. M. 1987. Confidence intervals for the ends of local taxon ranges. Technical Report 158. Department of Statistics, University of California; Riverside, California.Google Scholar
Strauss, D., and Sadler, P. M. 1989. Classical confidence intervals and Bayesian probability estimates for ends of local taxon ranges. Mathematical Geology 21:411–427.Google Scholar
Wilson, A. C., Carlson, S. S., and White, T. J. 1977. Biochemical evolution. Annual Review of Biochemistry 46:573–639.Google Scholar
Wise, K. P. 1989. The Estimation of True Taxonomic Durations from Fossil Occurrence Data. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Harvard University; Cambridge, Massachusetts.Google Scholar
Woodburne, M. O., and Tedford, R. H. 1975. The first Tertiary monotreme from Australia. American Museum Novitates 2588:1–11.Google Scholar