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Predicting the distribution of canine leishmaniasis in western Europe based on environmental variables

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 September 2011

ANA O. FRANCO ,
CLIVE R. DAVIES ,
ADRIAN MYLNE ,
JEAN-PIERRE DEDET ,
MONTSERRAT GÁLLEGO ,
CRISTINA BALLART ,
MARINA GRAMICCIA ,
LUIGI GRADONI ,
RICARDO MOLINA  and
ROSA GÁLVEZ
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ANA O. FRANCO
Affiliation:
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
CLIVE R. DAVIES
Affiliation:
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
ADRIAN MYLNE
Affiliation:
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
JEAN-PIERRE DEDET
Affiliation:
Centre National de Référence des Leishmania, UMR MIVEGEC, Université Montpellier 1/Laboratoire de Parasitologie-Mycologie, CHU de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
MONTSERRAT GÁLLEGO
Affiliation:
Laboratori de Parasitologia, Facultat de Farmàcia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
CRISTINA BALLART
Affiliation:
Laboratori de Parasitologia, Facultat de Farmàcia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
MARINA GRAMICCIA
Affiliation:
Unit of Vector-borne Diseases and International Health, MIPI Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
LUIGI GRADONI
Affiliation:
Unit of Vector-borne Diseases and International Health, MIPI Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy
RICARDO MOLINA
Affiliation:
Laboratorio de Referenda de Leishmaniasis, Servicio de Parasitología, Centro Nacional de Microbiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
ROSA GÁLVEZ
Affiliation:
Laboratorio de Referenda de Leishmaniasis, Servicio de Parasitología, Centro Nacional de Microbiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
FRANCISCO MORILLAS-MÁRQUEZ
Affiliation:
Departamento de Parasitología, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain
SERGIO BARÓN-LÓPEZ
Affiliation:
Departamento de Parasitología, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain
CARLOS ALVES PIRES
Affiliation:
Unidade de Entomologia Médica/Unidade de Parasitologia e Microbiologia Médica, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
MARIA ODETE AFONSO
Affiliation:
Unidade de Entomologia Médica/Unidade de Parasitologia e Microbiologia Médica, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
PAUL D. READY*
Affiliation:
Department of Entomology, Natural History Museum, London, UK
JONATHAN COX
Affiliation:
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
*
*Corresponding author: Department of Entomology, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK. Tel: + 442079425622. Fax: + 442079425229. E-mail: P.Ready@nhm.ac.uk
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Summary

The domestic dog is the reservoir host of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis endemic in Mediterranean Europe. Targeted control requires predictive risk maps of canine leishmaniasis (CanL), which are now explored. We databased 2187 published and unpublished surveys of CanL in southern Europe. A total of 947 western surveys met inclusion criteria for analysis, including serological identification of infection (504, 369 dogs tested 1971–2006). Seroprevalence was 23 2% overall (median 10%). Logistic regression models within a GIS framework identified the main environmental predictors of CanL seroprevalence in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, or in France alone. A 10-fold cross-validation approach determined model capacity to predict point-values of seroprevalence and the correct seroprevalence class (<5%, 5–20%, >20%). Both the four-country and France-only models performed reasonably well for predicting correctly the <5% and >20% seroprevalence classes (AUC >0 70). However, the France-only model performed much better for France than the four-country model. The four-country model adequately predicted regions of CanL emergence in northern Italy (<5% seroprevalence). Both models poorly predicted intermediate point seroprevalences (5–20%) within regional foci, because surveys were biased towards known rural foci and Mediterranean bioclimates. Our recommendations for standardizing surveys would permit higher-resolution risk mapping.

Keywords

canine leishmaniasiswestern Mediterraneanpredicting distributionserological recordsseroprevalence
Type
Research Article
Information
Parasitology , Volume 138 , Issue 14 , December 2011 , pp. 1878 - 1891
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

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