In this well-researched and objective account, Mileah K. Kromer provides an in-depth analysis of how Republican Larry Hogan was able to be elected and reelected while maintaining a high level of popularity throughout his time as governor of Maryland—a state known for its diversity, Democratic dominance, and liberalism. In 2016, two years into Hogan’s first term, Maryland voters gave Hillary Clinton a clear majority with 60% of the vote; the state’s legislature is currently 72% Democrats and it has been held by Democrats with a strong majority since before the New Deal. Hogan was only the second Republican to ever be reelected as governor of Maryland and the first since the late 1950s. Both of Hogan’s races were against bona fide progressive Democrats with impressive resumes. And yet Hogan was able to win twice, a feat that required gaining the votes of one-third of the state’s Democratic voters, a majority of women, and, importantly, almost one- third of the votes of Black Marylanders.
How is it that Hogan was able to pull this off? Did his governorship and reelection hold some lessons for the future of the political parties? In Blue-State Republican, Kromer traces Hogan’s political career from his decision to run for office to just after he won reelection. Through a deep dive into the major political, policy, and personal challenges Hogan faced, the book communicates two primary lessons for scholars of American politics and professional party strategists. First, it provides valuable insight and a fascinating story of how politics operates in a racially and politically diverse state. In this way, Kromer adds to existing research on the subject, including James G. Gimpel and Jason E. Schuknech’s 2009 Patchwork Nation and Katherine J. Cramer’s 2016 The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker. The book outlines how even in a time of remarkable national party polarization and the nationalization of party politics, states and locales often present distinctive political processes and pressures. Consequently, politicians must tailor their campaigns to the uniqueness of the state in which they operate. As a result, this extremely accessible book would make a nice addition to any undergraduate syllabus about political parties or political management.
Kromer develops a theory of how the Republican party could build a bigger tent coalition that could win in less-Republican states while simultaneously exploring the headwinds that may work against this approach. In so doing, the book also contains lessons for the Democratic party about how to avoid losing to Republicans in traditionally Democratic states, as well as possibly how to win in Republican states. In this way, the book compliments Seth Masket’s recent work (Learning from Loss: The Democrats, 2016–2020), and the literature about how parties evolve over time. For example, as a Republican, Hogan could have steered clear of majority-Black and super-majority Democratic places like Baltimore or Prince George’s County, hoping to rely on a large turnout of base Republican voters and disaffected (or more conservative) Democrats and Independents. Instead, as the book documents, he made efforts to show he was interested in working across the aisle by actively campaigning in areas generally dismissed by Republicans. This, in itself, is a major lesson for political operatives of both parties.
Each chapter of the book presents a different lesson for students of political management and, put together, they present a meaningful contribution to the study of party politics and federalism. In the introduction, Kromer places Governor Hogan’s initial 2014 campaign in the context of both Maryland and the larger 2013 Republican National Committee’s “autopsy report” calling for a center-right approach that would attract voters from a wider array of demographic groups. In terms of national party dynamics, the author suggests that while Trump effectively stopped the national party’s attempt to build a big tent, Hogan’s campaigns were so successful in large part because he followed the centrist suggestions of the “autopsy.”
The first half of the book focuses on the factors that were likely the reason for Hogan’s victories, presenting larger lessons for Democrats and Republicans nationwide facing uphill battles: 1) American voters care a lot about taxes but they also care about social issues, so do not pick fights you cannot win if you have a platform that will appeal across the political divide; and 2) it makes sense for the parties to invest in their candidates even if they are running in seemingly unwinnable races. Hogan won by focusing on issues the Republican Party “owns” and avoiding the ones they do not. And Democrats assumed they could not lose, while the Republican party invested in Hogan’s campaign even when it seemed he could not win. In sum, well-financed campaigns and high-quality candidates can make the difference even in places long dismissed as unwinnable.
The second half of the book focuses on key issues facing Republican and Democratic candidates, with implications for politics at both the state and national levels. The first of these is the dominance of Trump and Trump-like candidates in the Republican Party. In order to win in a Democratic stronghold, Hogan walked a tight rope, criticizing Trump sparingly but otherwise avoiding national politics. While this may be untenable for a national candidate who must get through the primaries; for those in Democratic states, steering too far to the right just ensures a loss. The book thus raises questions about the costs and benefits of political moderation in a polarized era. Under what conditions can state and local politicians succeed while distancing themselves from their national party brand? Can Republicans reach out to minority and women voters, even if the effect is to merely reduce the margin of their losses among these groups of voters? Can Democrats advance economically progressive policies while avoiding the politically toxic label that they are socialists? In a federalist system, campaigns appealing to the median voter at the state level might prove more fruitful for ambitious politicians of the minority party seeking statewide office, even when a base mobilization strategy makes sense in other electoral contexts.
Kromer lays out a blueprint for future Republican candidates in Democratic strongholds: “stick to pocketbook issues that make a tangible difference in people’s lives and ignore the culture wars; be an independent voice willing to buck your party and embrace opportunities to work with the opposition; have core principles but be flexible on policy solutions; be guided by the signal of the average voter rather than the noise of the fringe; be willing to take your message to all voters and do the work to persuade them; and surround yourself with professionals who can execute on all of the above with skill and fierce loyalty” (p. 150). The book also holds a few other lessons that Republican strategists might want to take away, including the need for engaging with Black and Brown leaders instead of stoking white resentment; cultivating positive relationships with the press; picking one’s battles wisely; and avoiding politically motivated witch-hunts in the bureaucracy.
There are several other major takeaways for academics. For one, there is real value in qualitative research and in getting deep into the political mix. Graduate students looking for dissertation topics could use this book to see how getting knee-deep in local politics can prove a great way to generate valuable social science. For those who study polarization, this book offers evidence from the states that elites can lead in a way that could decrease toxic negative partisanship at the national level.
My only minor quibble is that despite Kromer’s unbridled access to a large amount of public opinion data on Hogan, only crosstabs are presented in the book. While this makes it more accessible to undergraduates, there is definitely more that could have been surmised by using even simple OLS to examine his public support in more detail. Ultimately, Kromer has written an excellent book that provides a glimmer of hope in a time of extreme polarization, and a playbook for future Republican and Democratic party strategists in the states. It is a must-read for students of state politics and political management.
