Hostname: page-component-7bb8b95d7b-5mhkq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-09-10T00:40:24.288Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Toward Better Design-Related Decision Making: A Proposal of an Advanced OODA Loop

Part of: Innovation Engineering

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 July 2019

Mattia Vettorello ,
Boris Eisenbart  and
Charlie Ranscombe

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

To be successful in innovation, organisations need to be dynamically adaptable to novel situations to avoid getting ‘left behind’. Yet, they face vast uncertainties stemming from unforeseeable technological shifts or future user and market behaviour, making strategic decision-making on innovation an extremely difficult task. Decision-makers thus increasingly try to control or shape the future, rather than foresee it. This includes thinking ahead and generating potential pathways that will make an innovation viable. This captures the essence of designerly ways of thinking in reasoning toward ‘what might be’. Extant literature has been reviewed that discusses alternative strategies how this future-oriented thinking can be applied to become better at selecting novel ideas for development. We observe parallels between divergent thinking, abductive reasoning, analogising and lateral thinking suggested by different authors in this process. The paper continues to propose how these key mechanisms can be embedded within an existing framework for decision-making under uncertainty, the ‘OODA Loop’, which has seen increasing uptake in such decision-making scenarios.

Keywords

Strategic Decision MakingFuture Oriented ThinkingDecision makingUncertaintyInnovation
Type
Article
Information
Proceedings of the Design Society: International Conference on Engineering Design , Volume 1 , Issue 1 , July 2019 , pp. 2387 - 2396
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2019

References

Alvarez, S.A. and Barney, J.B. (2007), “Discovery and creation: Alternative theories of entrepreneurial action”, Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal, Vol. 1, pp. 11–26.Google Scholar
Ambady, N. and Rosenthal, R. (1992), “Thin slices of expressive behavior as predictors of interpersonal consequences: A meta-analysis”, Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 111, pp. 256–274.Google Scholar
Ardichvili, A., Cardozo, R. and Ray, S. (2003), “A theory of entrepreneurial opportunity identification and development”, Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 18, pp. 105–123.Google Scholar
Assink, M. (2006), “Inhibitors of disruptive innovation capability: a conceptual model”, European Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 9, pp. 215–233. http://doi.org/10.1108/14601060610663587.Google Scholar
Baron, R.A. (2006), “Opportunity Recognition as Pattern Recognition: How Entrepreneurs “Connect the Dots” to Identify New Business Opportunities”, The Academy of Management Perspectives, Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 104–119. http://doi.org/10.5465/AMP.2006.19873412.Google Scholar
Berg, J.M. (2016), “Balancing on the Creative Highwire: Forecasting the Success of Novel Ideas in Organizations”, Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 61 No. 3, pp. 433–468. http://doi.org/10.1177/0001839216642211.Google Scholar
Bonchek, M. and Fussell, C. (2013), “Decision-making, Top Gun Style”, Harvard Business Review, viewed 12 September 2018, <https://hbr.org/2013/09/decision-making-top-gun-style>..>Google Scholar
Brown, T. (2009), Change by design: How design thinking transforms organizations and inspires innovation, HarperCollins, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Buchanan, R. (1992), “Wicked Problems in Design Thinking”, Design Issues, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 5–21. http://doi.org/10.2307/1511637.Google Scholar
Byrne, C.L., Shipman, A.S. and Mumford, M.D. (2010), “The effects of forecasting on creative problem-solving: An experimental study”, Creativity Research Journal, Vol. 22, pp. 119–138.Google Scholar
Carlgren, L., Elmquist, M. and Rauth, I. (2016), “The Challenges of Using Design Thinking in Industry – Experiences from Five Large Firms”, Creativity and Innovation Management, Vol. 25 No. 3, pp. 344–362. http://doi.org/10.1111/caim.12176.Google Scholar
Chi, M.T.H., Glaser, R. and Rees, E. (1982), Expertise in problem solving. In: Sternberg, R. J. (Ed.), Advances in the Psychology of Human Intelligence. Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ.Google Scholar
Cropley, A. (2006), ‘‘In praise of convergent thinking”, Creativity Research Journal, Vol. 18, pp. 391–404.Google Scholar
Cross, N. (2011), Design thinking: understanding how designers think and work, Berg Publishers, Oxford.Google Scholar
Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1999), “Implications of a systems perspective for the study of creativity”,.Handbook of creativity. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, US.Google Scholar
De Bono, E. (1970), Lateral thinking: creativity step by step, Harper and Row, New York.Google Scholar
Dailey, L. and Mumford, M.D. (2006), “Evaluative Aspects of Creative Thought: Errors in Appraising the Implications of New Ideas”, Creativity Research Journal, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 385–390. http://doi.org/10.1207/s15326934crj1803_11.Google Scholar
Dew, N., Read, S., Sarasvathy, S.D. and Wiltbank, R. (2009), “Effectual versus predictive logics in entrepreneurial decision-making: Differences between experts and novices”, Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 24 No. 4, pp. 287–309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.02.002.Google Scholar
Diebold, F.X., Doherty, N.A. and Herring, R.J. (2010), The Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable in Financial Risk Management Measurement and Theory Advancing Practice, Princeton University Press, Princetown, New Jersey, United States.Google Scholar
Dong, A., Garbuio, M. and Lovallo, D. (2016), “Generative sensing in design evaluation”, Design Studies, Vol. 45, pp. 68–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.destud.2016.01.003.Google Scholar
Dorst, K. (2011), “The core of ‘design thinking’ and its application”, Design Studies, Vol. 32 No. 6, pp. 521–532. http://doi.org/doi.org/10.1016/j.destud.2011.07.006.Google Scholar
Dresch, A., Lacerda, D.P. and Antunes, J.A.V. (2015), “Design Science Research”, In: Dresch, A, Lacerda, DP, JAV, Antunes Jr (eds) Design Science Research. Springer International Publishing, pp. 67–102.Google Scholar
Dunne, D.D. and Dougherty, D. (2015), “Abductive Reasoning: How Innovators Navigate in the Labyrinth of Complex Product Innovation”, Organization Studies, Vol. 37 No. 2, pp. 131–159. http://doi.org/10.1177/0170840615604501.Google Scholar
Eggers, F., Lovelace, K.J. and Kraft, F. (2017), “Fostering creativity through critical thinking: The case of business start-up simulations”, Creativity and Innovation Management, Vol. 26 No. 3, pp. 266–276. http://doi.org/10.1111/caim.12225.Google Scholar
Enck, R.E. (2012), “The OODA Loop”, Home Health Care Management and Practice, Vol. 24 No. 3, pp. 123–124 http://doi.org/10.1177/1084822312439314.Google Scholar
Ensici, A., Bayazit, N., Badke-Schaub, P. and Lauche, K. (2008), “Decision-making in design teams: analysis of used and rejected decisions”, International Design Conference - Design 2008, Dubrovnik – Croatia, May 19 – 22.Google Scholar
Ericsson, K.A. and Simon, H.A. (1980), “Verbal reports as data”, Psychological Review, Vol. 87 No. 3, pp. 215–251.Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. (2007), Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious, Viking, New York.Google Scholar
Govindarajan, V. and Trimble, C. (2010), The Other Side of Innovation: Solving the Execution Challenge, Harvard Business School Publishing, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States.Google Scholar
Guilford, J.P. (1967), The Nature of Human Intelligence. McGraw-Hill, New York.Google Scholar
Huang, L. and Pearce, J.L. (2015), “Managing the Unknowable: The Effectiveness of Early-stage Investor Gut Feel in Entrepreneurial Investment Decisions”, Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 60 No. 4, pp. 634–670. http://doi.org/10.1177/0001839215597270.Google Scholar
James, L.R. and Brett, J.M. (1984), “Mediators, moderators, and tests for mediation”, Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 69, pp. 307–321.Google Scholar
Kelley, T. (2005), The Ten Faces of Innovation. Random House, New York, New York, United States.Google Scholar
Kirzner, I.M. (1985), Discovery and the capitalist process. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, United States.Google Scholar
Kleinsmann, M., Valkenburg, R. and Sluijs, J. (2017), “Capturing the Value of Design Thinking in Different Innovation Practices”, International Journal of Design, Vol. 11 No. 2.Google Scholar
Kotina, E., Prendeville, S. and Koria, M. (2017), “Using Design Thinking to improve Strategic Decisions during Collaborative Sensemaking”, DMA 2017. Hong Kong.Google Scholar
Landoni, P., Dell'Era, C., Ferraloro, G., Peradotto, M., Karlsson, H. and Verganti, R. (2016), “Design Contribution to the Competitive Performance of SMEs: The Role of Design Innovation Capabilities”, Creativity and Innovation Management, Vol. 25 No. 4, pp. 484–499. http://doi.org/10.1111/caim.12165.Google Scholar
Macmillan, I.C., Zemann, L. and Subbanarasimha, P. N. (1987), “Criteria distinguishing successful from unsuccessful ventures in the venture screening process”, Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 2 No. 2, pp. 123–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/0883-9026(87)90003-6.Google Scholar
Magnini, L. (2001), Abduction, reason, and science: Processes of discovery and explanation, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8562-0.Google Scholar
Maier, H.R., Guillaume, J.H.A., Van Delden, H., Riddell, G.A., Haasnoot, M. and Kwakkel, J.H. (2016), “An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?” Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 81, pp. 154–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014.Google Scholar
Martens, M.L., Jennings, J.E. and Jennings, P.D. (2007), “Do the stories they tell get them the money they need? The role of entrepreneurial narratives in resource acquisition”, Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 50, pp. 1107–1132.Google Scholar
Mason, R.O. and Mitroff, I.I. (1981), Challenging Strategic Planning Assumptions: Theory, Cases and Techniques. Wiley, New York, New York, United States.Google Scholar
Mckenzie, J., Van Winkelen, C. and Grewal, S. (2011), “Developing organisational decision-making capability: a knowledge manager's guide”, Journal of Knowledge Management, Vol. 15 No. 3, pp. 403–421. http://doi.org/10.1108/13673271111137402.Google Scholar
Mintzberg, H., Raisinghani, D. and Théoret, A. (1976), “The Structure of “Unstructured” Decision Processes”, Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 21 No. 2, pp. 246–275. http://doi.org/10.2307/2392045.Google Scholar
Moreau, C.P., Lehmann, D.R. and Markman, A.B. (2001), “Entrenched knowledge structures and consumer response to new products”, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 38, pp. 14–29.Google Scholar
Mumford, M.D., Lonergan, D.C. and Scott, G. (2002), ‘‘Evaluating creative ideas: Processes, standards, and context”, Inquiry: Critical Thinking Across the Disciplines, Vol. 22, pp. 21–30.Google Scholar
Plowman, D., Baker, T., Beck, M., Kulkarni, S. and Solansky, D. (2007), “Radical change accidentally: The emergence and amplification of small change”, Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 50, pp. 515–543Google Scholar
Sarasvathy, S.D. (2001), “Causation and Effectuation: Toward a Theoretical Shift from Economic Inevitability to Entrepreneurial Contingency”, The Academy of Management Review, Vol. 26 No. 2, pp. 243–263. http://doi.org/10.2307/259121.Google Scholar
Shane, S. (2009), “Why Encouraging More People to Become Entrepreneurs Is Bad Public Policy”, Small Business Economics, Vol. 33 No. 2, pp. 141–149.Google Scholar
Sousa, F.C., Monteiro, I.P., Walton, A.P. and Pissarra, J. (2014), “Adapting creative problem solving to an organizational context: A study of its effectiveness with a student population”, Creativity and Innovation Management, Vol. 23, pp. 111–120.Google Scholar
Strauss, A. and Corbin, J. (1998), Basics of qualitative research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States.Google Scholar
Sustein, C.R. and Hastie, R. (2015), Wiser: getting beyond groupthink to make groups smarter. Harvard Business Review Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States.Google Scholar
Teece, D. (2007), “Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance”, Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 28 No. 13, pp. 1319–1350. http://doi.org/10.1002/smj.640.Google Scholar
Teece, D. and Pisano, G. (1994), “The Dynamic Capabilities of Firms: an Introduction”, Industrial and Corporate Change, Vol. 3 No. 3, pp. 537–556. http://doi.org/10.1093/icc/3.3.537-a.Google Scholar
Walker, W.E., Lempert, R.J. and Kwakkel, J.H. (2013), “Deep Uncertainty”, In: GASS, S.I. and FU, M. C., (eds.) Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Springer US, Boston, Massachusetts, United States.Google Scholar
Wertz, R.E., Saragih, A., Van Epps, A., Sapp Nelson, M., Purzer, S., Fosmire, M. and Dillman, B. (2013), “Work in progress: Critical thinking and information literacy: Assessing student performance”, Paper presented at the 2013 annual American Society for Engineering Education Conference and Exposition.Google Scholar
Whitten, D. and Brahmasrene, T. (2011), “Predictors of critical thinking skills of incoming business students”, Academy of Educational Leadership Journal, Vol.15, pp. 1–13.Google Scholar
Wilson, T. D. (2002), Strangers to Ourselves: Discovering the Adaptive Unconscious. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States.Google Scholar