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The abridged census method as an estimator of lifetime risk

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 July 2009

Gary A. Chase  and
Morton Kramer
Gary A. Chase*
Affiliation:
Department of Mental Hygiene, Johns Hopkins University School of HygienePublic Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Morton Kramer
Affiliation:
Department of Mental Hygiene, Johns Hopkins University School of HygienePublic Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
*
1Address for correspondence: Dr G. A. Chase, Department of Mental Hygiene, Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205,USA
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Synopsis

The abridged census estimator, also known as Weinberg's shorter method, is a device used to estimate lifetime incidence from the observed age distribution of a population at risk coupled with data on the current prevalence of a mental disorder. This method, which still enjoys considerable popularity, should have been replaced many years ago by more accurate techniques for making such estimates using similar information. In particular, the abridged census method uses the assumption that the remaining life expectancy of incident cases equals that of non-cases. This assumption is likely to lead to an underestimate of the lifetime risk. Two examples are presented from published literature which illustrate some problems encountered with the use of the abridged census method. Some alternative estimation methods are presented which can be implemented using only a hand calculator and which lead to more accurate results.

Type
Research Article
Information
Psychological Medicine , Volume 16 , Issue 4 , November 1986 , pp. 865 - 871
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1986

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