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Macro-Economic Cycles Related to Climate change in Dynastic China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Zhudeng Wei ,
Arlene M. Rosen ,
Xiuqi Fang ,
Yun Su  and
Xuezhen Zhang
Zhudeng Wei
Affiliation:
School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Arlene M. Rosen
Affiliation:
Department of Anthropology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Xiuqi Fang*
Affiliation:
School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Yun Su
Affiliation:
School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Xuezhen Zhang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
*
*Corresponding author at: School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. E-mail address:xfang@bnu.edu.cn (X. Fang).
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Abstract

Investigations of the relationships between climate and human history often place more emphasis on the science of climate change than on understanding human socio-economic processes, and therefore suffer from superficial results and an unbalanced perspective. This is partly due to the lack of high-resolution data concerning long-term socio-economic processes. Here, we base our study of climate and society on a series of 2130-yr-long economic proxy data from China with decadal resolution. The economy was associated significantly with temperature and precipitation at the two predominant bands of 100 and 320 yr. The phase transition of economic states was influenced positively by long-term temperature change combined with triggering effects of short-term changes in precipitation. However, climatic impact on economy should not be recognized as simple causality but some driving-response relation coupled with meditation by human agency at multiple scales. A model of ‘adaptive cycles’ implies, in relative to the developing phases, climate–economy relationship during the declining phases was more easily moderated by slower processes like rigidity and faster processes like unrest. From a more-macro perspective, climatic driving for the macro-economic cycles was moderated by larger and slower processes like social memory, spatial shifting of key economic areas, and social–technical advance.

Keywords

Climatic impactsProxy reconstructionSemantic analysisMacro-economic cycleResilience theoryHistorical dynastyPast 2000 yearsChina
Type
Research Article
Information
Quaternary Research , Volume 83 , Issue 1 , January 2015 , pp. 13 - 23
Copyright
University of Washington

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