Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-21T13:14:39.083Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Macroeconomic Policy Co-ordination: Theory and Evidence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Charles R. Bean*
Affiliation:
London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Policy Research
Get access

Extract

Unemployment has risen steadily during the last five years in all of the major European economies. Although there have been some signs that the rate of increase may have slackened this is mainly due to the fiscal-led expansion in the United States. Recent evidence suggests that the growth rate in the United States is slackening, and the need to reduce the structural budget deficit means that the rest of the developed countries can no longer rely on the United States as the main source of demand growth in the world economy. In spite of this, European governments have been reluctant to undertake fiscal and monetary policy actions which might sustain the recovery. In part this reflects a pessimism about the efficacy of conventional stabilisation policies born of the experience of the mid-seventies. However, the current situation is arguably very different now. Whereas the recession of the mid-seventies was largely the result of a supply-side shock requiring a downward adjustment in real wages, the recession of the early eighties is largely a consequence of the contractionary fiscal and monetary policies pursued outside the United States. That the present high levels of unemployment are Keynesian rather than Classical in nature has been argued forcefully by e.g. Dornbusch et al. (1983) and Bruno (1985). A reversal of these contractionary policies could therefore be expected to increase employment. Thus Layard et al. (1984) have argued there is scope for a temporary, supply-side friendly, fiscal expansion concentrated in public investment, subsidies to private investment and measures to reduce the marginal cost of employment. This would be accompanied by a modest relaxation of monetary policy to prevent real interest rates rising. Because such an expansion would be temporary it need have no long-run implications for inflation or real interest rates.

Type
PART TWO: European and Transatlantic Policy Coordination
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1985 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Austin, G.P. and Buiter, W.H. (1983), A program for solving continuous-time linear rational expectations models, LSE econometrics programme, Working paper no. A3 7.Google Scholar
Brainard, W. (1967), Uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 411–25.Google Scholar
Bruno, M. (1985), Aggregate supply and demand factors in OECD unemployment : an update, presented to a conference on the rise in unemployment, Chelwood Gate, Sussex.Google Scholar
Buiter, W.H. (1985), International monetary policy to promote economic recovery, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion paper no. 55.Google Scholar
Buiter, W.H. and Miller, M.H. (1981), Monetary policy and international competitiveness, Oxford Economic Papers, 33, Supplement, 143174.Google Scholar
Canzoneri, M. (1984), Monetary policy games and the role of private information, Federal Reserve Board, mimeo.Google Scholar
Dornbusch, R. (1976), Expectations and exchange rate dynamics, Journal of Political Economy, 84, 1161–76.Google Scholar
Dornbusch, R., Basevi, G., Blanchard, O., Buiter, W.H., and Layard, R. (1983), Macroeconomic prospects and policies for the European Community, Centre for European Policy Studies, Discussion paper no. 1.Google Scholar
Layard, R., Basevi, G., Blanchard, O., Buiter, W.H., and Dornbusch, R. (1984), Europe: the case for unsustainable growth, Centre for European Policy Studies, Discussion paper no. 31.Google Scholar
Miller, M.H., and Salmon, M. (1985), Dynamic games and the time consistency of optimal policy in open economies, in International Economic Policy Co-ordination (eds. Buiter, W.H. and Marston, R.C.), Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Oudiz, G. and Sachs, J. (1984), Macroeconomic policy co-ordination among the industrial economies, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1.Google Scholar
Sachs, J. and Mckibbin, W. (1985), Macroeconomic policies in the OECD and LDC external adjustment, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Working paper no. 56.Google Scholar
Sargan, J.D. (1964), Wages and prices in the United Kingdom: a study in econometric methodology. In Econometric Analysis for Economic Planning (eds. Hart, P.E., Mills, G. and Whitaker, J.K.), London, Butterworths.Google Scholar