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The probability of nuclear war, the philosophy of time and the nature of events

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 October 2009

R. J. Barry Jones
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Extract

Discussions of the likelihood of nuclear conflict often encounter an argument which this writer first heard expounded in 1972 by the eminent economist and conflict researcher Kenneth Boulding. The admission that the likelihood of a major nuclear exchange cannot be absolutely excluded requires, according to this argument, the formal assignment of a positive probability, however small, to such an event. This, in turn, appears to constitute a de facto acceptance of the ultimate inevitability of such a catastrophe, at some time and under some conditions. This argument is often deployed as one among a number of points used in support of strenuous efforts to secure international agreements on nuclear arms limitation, reduction or abolition.

Type
Research note
Information
Review of International Studies , Volume 14 , Issue 1 , January 1988 , pp. 63 - 68
Copyright
Copyright © British International Studies Association 1988

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References

1. During a discussion at the Founding Conference of the British International Political Economy Group, Cumberland Lodge, Great Windsor Park, July 1972.

2. For an interesting discussion of probability and the laws of probability see Lindley, D. V., Making Decisions (London, 1971), esp. pp. 17–47.Google Scholar

3. For a wide-ranging and illuminating discussion of time see Whitrow, G. J., The Natural Philosophy of Time (London, 1961)Google Scholar.

4. For a brief discussion of ‘category mistakes’ see the entries in A Dictionary of Philosophy (London, 1979), pp. 53–54Google Scholar; and the The Fontana Dictionary of Modern Thought (London, 1977), p. 90.Google Scholar

5. Hermann, Charles F., International Crises: Insights from Behavioral Research (New York, 1972), p. 13.Google Scholar

6. See the general review by Snyder, Glenn H., ‘Conflict and Crisis in the International System’, in Rosenau, J. N., Thompson, K. W. and Boyd, G., World Politics: An Introduction (New York, 1976), esp. pp. 683–687Google Scholar; and see also the discussion in Barry Jones, R. J., ‘The Falklands Conflict and Crisis Studies’, paper given to the International Relations Theory Research Group, City University, London, 1985.Google Scholar

7. See Frei, Daniel, Risks of Unintentional Nuclear War (Beckenham, 1983), esp. pp. 155–165Google Scholar and pp. 61–82; and on the role of ‘accident’ generally in precipitating wars see Blainey, Geoffrey, The Causes of War (London, 1973)CrossRefGoogle Scholar, ch. 9.

8. Ibid., pp. 167–76; and see also: Rosecrance, R. N. (ed.), The Dispersion of Nuclear Weapons (New York, 1964)Google Scholar; and Buchan, A. (ed.), A World of Nuclear Powers (Englewood Cliffs, 1966).Google Scholar

9. See Richardson, L. F., Arms and Insecurity (London, 1960)Google Scholar; Baker, Philip Noel, The Arms Race (London, 1958)Google Scholar; Nicholson, Michael, Conflict Analysis (London, 1970)Google Scholar, ch. 8; Zinnes, Dina M., Contemporary Research in International Relations: A Perspective and a Critical Appraisal (New York, 1976)Google Scholar, ch. XII; Barringer, R. E., War: Patterns of Conflict (Cambridge, MA, 1972)Google Scholar; and Beer, Francis A., Peace Against War: The Ecology of International Violence (San Francisco, 1981), esp. pp. 231–239.Google Scholar

10. Frei, op. cit., pp. 23–59 and pp. 109–53; and see also Lebow, R. N., Between War and Peace: The Nature of International Crises (Baltimore, 1981).Google Scholar

11. Ibid., pp. 61–82.

12. Ibid., esp. pp. 83–107.

13. Ibid.

14. See Jones, Gareth Stedman, ‘History: the Poverty of Empiricism’, in Blackburn, R. (ed.), Ideology in Social Science (London, 1972), pp. 96–115.Google Scholar

15. See, for example, Reynolds, Charles, Theory and Explanation in International Politics (London, 1973)Google Scholar, esp. chs. 4, 5 and 7; and see also the examples used in Lebow, Between War and Peace, op. cit.