Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-pftt2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-02T22:19:45.731Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Why monarchies persist: balancing between internal and external vulnerability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 September 2010

Abstract

Why have absolutist monarchies in the past three decades survived when so many succumbed to coups and revolution in the past? The rulers' use of divide-and-rule and balancing strategies as Lust-Okar and Jamal noted recently, served as a partial solution. Overlooked in the literature on the persistance of monarchies was how these mechanisms, which reduce the leader's domestic vulnerability, mar his offensive capabilities to cope with centralising, more effective and threatening neighbours. To cope with this trade-off between internal and external vulnerabilities, monarchs and leaders of other Third World states have been involved in a two-level game of ‘omnibalancing’ – allying with strong outside powers when possible while continuing to employ divide-and-rule and balancing techniques domestically. Only resource-rich or strategically located monarchies can enjoy such protection which is why most of monarchies that have persisted are located in the Middle East.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © British International Studies Association 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Garfinkle, Adam M., ‘US Decision Making in the Jordan Crisis: Correcting the Record’, Political Science Quarterly, 100 (1985), p. 120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2 Gause, F. Gregory, Oil Monarchies: Domestic and Security Challenges in the Arab Gulf States (New York:Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1994), p. 94;Google ScholarChubin, Shahran and Tripp, Charles, ‘Iran-Saudi Arabian Relations and Regional Order’, Adelphi Papers, 304 (London: IISS and Oxford, 1996), pp. 1617.Google Scholar

3 Chubin, and Tripp, , ‘Iran-Saudi Arabian Relations and Regional Order’, p. 17; Ed Blanche, , ‘Security and Stability in the Middle East – the Al-Khobar factor’, Jane's Intelligence Review, 136 (2001), pp. 3334Google Scholar .

4 Vitalis, Rober, When Capitalists Collide: Business Conflict and the End of Empire in Egypt (Berkeley: University of California, 1995), pp. 141157Google Scholar .

5 See, Mufti, Malik, Sovereign Creations: Pan-Arabism and Political Order in Syria and Iraq (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1996), p. 40;Google Scholar on development in Iraq, see Edith, and Penrose, E. F., Iraq: International Relations and National Development (London: Ernest Benn, 1978), pp. 163196, chap. 7Google Scholar .

6 Khalil, ‘Adil Ghafuri, Ahzab al-Mu‘arada al-‘Ulniyya Fil-Iraq (1946–1954) (Baghdad: Al-Maktaba al-‘Alamiyya, 1984), pp. 11, 275Google Scholar .

7 First, Ruth, Libya: The Elusive Revolution (Middlesex: Penguin, 1974), pp. 5859Google Scholar . As the author so aptly puts it, ‘[…] Libya was created a state from without, and only then she begin to try to assemble a nation from the parts which over centuries had been separated from one another by successive foreign occupations as well as her hostile geography.’

8 Gause III, F. Gregory, ‘The Persistence of Monarchy in the Arabian Peninsula: A Comparative Analysis’, in Kostiner, Joseph (ed.), Middle East Monarchies: The Challenge of Modernity (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2000), pp. 178179Google Scholar .

9 Long, David E., ‘The Islamic Republic of Iran’, in Long, David E. and Reich, Bernard (eds), The Government and Politics of the Middle East and North Africa (Boulder: Westview Press, 1986), p. 65Google Scholar .

10 Zabih, Sepehr, The Iranian Military in Revolution and War (London: Routledge, 1988), pp. 45Google Scholar .

11 Ryan, Curtis R., ‘Peace Bread and Riots: Jordan and the IMF’, Middle East Policy, 6 (1998), p. 54CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

12 Tozy, Mohammad, ‘Islam and the State’, in Zartman, I. William and Habeeb, William Mark (eds), Politics and Society in Contemporary North Africa (Boulder: Westview, 1993), p. 107Google Scholar .

13 One of the more recent assessments claims that Palestinians comprise 58.5 per cent of the Jordanian population. See, Yunis, Ahmad, ‘Al-Lajiyyun al-Filastiniyyun fil-Duwwal al-‘Arabiyya al-Mujawara Li-Filastin – Al-Urdunn’, Al-Ard, 31 (2003), p. 6Google Scholar .

14 For an excellent demonstration of counterbalancing between Palestinians and Jordanians in the economic arena, see, Reiter, Yitzhak, ‘Economic and Political Power in Jordan: the Palestinian Transjordanian Rift’, Middle East Journal, 58 (2004), pp. 7292CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

15 Herb, Michael, ‘Subordinate Communities and the Utility of Ethnic Ties to a Neighboring Regime: Iran and the Shi'a of the Arab States in the Gulf’, in Binder, Leonard (ed.), Ethnic Conflict and International Politics (Gainesville: University of Florida Press, 1999), p. 12, pp. 164165Google Scholar .

16 Ibid., p. 167.

17 Anderson, Lisa, ‘Absolutism and the Resilience of Monarchy in the Middle East’, Political Science Quarterly, 106 (1991), p. 4CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

18 Huntington, Samuel P., Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968), p. 177Google Scholar .

19 Huntington, , Political Order in Changing Societies, p. 161Google Scholar .

20 Ibid., p. 62.

21 This disappointment reached its peak in June 1963 as thousands of middle class workers, bazaaris, clergy, students and unemployed Iranians took to the streets in protest of the Shah's reforms. See Abrahmian, Ervand, Iran: Between Two Revolutions (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1982), p. 424Google Scholar .

22 Herb, Michael, All in the Family: Absolutism, Revolution, and Democracy in the Middle Eastern Monarchies (Albany: State University of New York Press, 1999), p. 9Google Scholar .

23 Dam, Nicholas Van, The Struggle for Power in Syria: Policies and Society under Asad and the Ba'ath Party (London: I.B. Tauris, 1996), p. 1Google Scholar .

24 Herb, , All in the Family, p. 9Google Scholar . Quoted in Lucas, Russell E., ‘Review Article: Monarchical Authoritarianism: Survival and Political Liberalization in a Middle Eastern Regime Type’, International Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 36 (2004), p. 109Google Scholar .

25 On the inadequacy of Herb's explanation on the Iranian case, see Lust-Okar, Ellen‘Review’, Political Science Quarterly, 115 (2000), p. 465CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

26 Kostiner, Joseph, ‘Introduction’, in Kostiner, (ed.), Middle East Monarchies: The Challenge of Modernity, p. 9Google Scholar ; Gause, , Oil Monarchies, p. 4Google Scholar .

27 Sick, Gary G., ‘The Coming Crisis in the Persian Gulf’, in Sick, Gary and Potter, Lawrence G. (eds), The Persian Gulf at the Millennium: Essays in Politics, Economy, Security, and Religion (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1997), p. 17Google Scholar .

28 For more, see Ryan, Curtis R., ‘Peace Bread and Riots: Jordan and the IMF’, Middle East Policy, 6 (1998), pp. 5466Google Scholar ; Seddon, David, ‘Winter of Discontent: Economic Crisis in Tunisia and Morocco’, MERIP Report, 14 (1984), pp. 711Google Scholar .

29 Waterbury, John, The Commander of the Faithful (New York: Nicolson and Weidenfeld, 1972), pp. 267274Google Scholar .

30 Lust-Okar, Ellen and Jamal, Amaney, ‘Rulers and Rules: Reassessing the Influence of Regime Type on Electoral Law Formation’, Comparative Political Studies, 35 (2002), p. 338CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

31 Ibid., p. 355.

32 Ibid., p. 351.

33 Byman, Daniel L. and Green, Jerrold D., ‘The Enigma of Stability in the Persian Gulf Monarchies’, Middle East Review of International Affairs, 3 (1999), p. 2Google Scholar . Internet edition.

34 Waterbury, , The Commander of the Faithful, pp. 267274Google Scholar .

35 Lucas, ‘Review Article: Monarchical Authoritarianism’, p. 112.

36 Waterbury, , The Commander of the Faithful, p. 55Google Scholar . Emphasis added.

37 Anderson, Lisa, ‘Dynasts and Nationalists: Why Monarchies Survive’, in Kostiner, (ed.), Middle East Monarchies, pp. 6061Google Scholar .

38 Shahin, Emad Eldin, ‘Under the Shadow of the Imam: Morocco's Diverse Islamic Movements,’ Middle East Insight, 11 (1995), p. 40Google Scholar .

39 For example in Morocco, the Istiqlal Party waged a militant campaign against Marboutisme in the first years of independence. See, Tozy, ‘Islam and State’, p. 103.

40 Kupferschmidt, Uri M., ‘Reformist and Militant Islam in Urban and Rural Egypt’, Middle Eastern Studies, 23 (1987), p. 403CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

41 Rabinovitch, Itamar, Syria Under the Ba'ath 1963–66: The Army-Party Symbiosis (Jerusalem: Israel Universities Press), p. 205Google Scholar .

42 Perennes, Jean-Jaques, L'eau et les hommes au Maghreb. Contribution à une politique de l'eau en Méditerranée (Paris: Karthala, 1993), p. 370Google Scholar . Perennes, borrowing from Remy Levau's Le fellah marocain, défenseur du trône (Fondation nationale des sciences politiques, 1976), shows how the Moroccan King soon after independence began to replace the local notables with a modern bureaucracy manned by middle class officials. However, he ended up reconstituting the local power structure as it existed during the protectorate.

43 Chaudhry, Kiren Aziz, ‘The Price of Wealth: Business and State in Labor Remittance and Oil Economies’, International Organization, 43 (1989), pp. 103, 126127CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

44 al-Khazendar, Sami, Jordan and the Palestinian Question (London: Ithaca, 1997), pp. 111112Google Scholar .

45 Mednicoff, David M, ‘Civic Apathy in the Service of Stability? Cultural Politics in Monarchist Morocco’, Journal of North African Studies, 3 (1998), pp. 1121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar Note that the UNFP was the predecessor to the SUPF.

46 Diab, Ahmad, ‘Al-Intikhabat al-Tashri‘iyya al-Maghribiyya’, Al-Siyasa al-Dawliyya, 132 (1998), pp. 193196Google Scholar .

47 For a chilling rebuttal of this perception of monarchic rule in Morocco under King Hassan II which he sees as being based on brute power and suppression, see, Munson, Henry Jr., Religion and Politics in Morocco (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1993), pp. 133138.Google Scholar The description is based on John Pierre Entelis' Comparative Politics of North Africa (Syracuse: Syracuse University, 1980).

48 Lust-Okar and Jamal, ‘Rulers’, pp. 348–50.

49 Lucas, ‘Review Article: Monarchical Authoritarianism’, p. 113. Leveau, Remy, ‘The Moroccan Monarchy: A Political System in Quest of a New Equilibrium’, in Kostiner, (ed.), Middle East Monarchies, pp. 117130Google Scholar .

50 Leveau, Remy, ‘The Moroccan Monarchy: A Political System in Quest of a New Equilibrium’, in Kostiner, (ed.), Middle East Monarchies, pp. 117130Google Scholar .

51 Susser, Asher, ‘The Jordanian Monarchy: The Hashemite Success Story’, in Kostiner, (ed.), Middle East Monarchies, p. 109Google Scholar .

52 T'treault, Mary Ann, Stories of Democracy: Politics and Society in Contemporary Kuwait (New York: Columbia University Press, 2000), pp. 67, 168Google Scholar .

53 Lucas, ‘Review Article: Monarchical Authoritarianism’, p. 113.

54 Piro, Timothy, ‘Parliament, Politics and Pluralism in Jordan: Democratic Trends at a Difficult Time’, Middle East Insight, 8 (1997), p. 39Google Scholar .

55 Fathi, Schirin H, Al-‘Amil al-Filastini fil-Iintikhabat al-Barlaminiyya al-Urdunniyya l'il-'Am 1989 (Jerusalem: PASSIA, 1990), pp. 34Google Scholar .

56 Byman and Green, ‘The Enigma’, p. 6.

57 On the economic costs of increasing administrative fragmentation in the Moroccan context, see Naciri, Mohammad, ‘Territoire: contrôler ou developer, le dilemme du pouvoir depuis un siécle’, Maghreb-Machreq, 164 (April–June 1998), p. 27Google Scholar . The monarchy increased the number of provinces from 14 in 1959 to 53 in 1994 out of all proportion to demographic growth.

58 For a breakdown of the ethnic diversity in Syria, see, Dam, Nicholas Van, The Struggle for Power in Syria: Policies and Society under Asad and the Ba'ath Party (London: I.B. Tauris, 1996), p. 15Google Scholar .

59 On Ba‘thist ideology in Iraq, see Baram, Amatzia, ‘Neo-Tribalism in Iraq: Saddam Hussein's Tribal Policies, 1991–96’, International Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 29 (1997), p. 2Google Scholar .

60 Tilly, Charles, ‘War Making and State Making As Organized Crime’, in Evans, P., Skocpol, Theda and Rueschemeyer, Dietrich (eds), Bringing the State Back In (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985), p. 172Google Scholar .

61 Huntington, , Political Order in Changing Society, p. 155Google Scholar . Huntington juxtaposes the unimportance of interstate conflict on state formation in Third World states to its overriding importance in the European context mentioned on pp. 122–3.

62 See, Barnett, MichaelConfronting the Costs of War: Military Power, State, And Society in Egypt and Israel (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992), p. 5Google Scholar .

63 Huth, Paul K., Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1996), pp. 2729Google Scholar .

64 For a full account of the life and conquests of Muhammad Ali, see Fahmy, Khaled Mahmoud, All The Pasha's Men: Mehmed Ali, His Army and the Making of Modern Egypt (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997)Google Scholar .

65 Vatikiotis, P. J., The History of Egypt, 3rd edition (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986), pp. 402403Google Scholar .

66 Lustick, Ian, ‘Stability in Deeply Divided Societies: Consociationalism versus Control’, World Politics, 31 (1979), pp. 332333CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

67 Seale, Patrick, Assad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East (London: Tauris, IB, 1988), p. 84Google Scholar .

68 David, Steven, ‘Explaining Third World Alignment’, World Politics, 43 (1991), p. 233Google Scholar ; See also Barnett, Michael, ‘High Politics is Low Politics’, World Politics, 42 (1990), pp. 529562Google Scholar ; Ayoob, Mohammed, ‘The Security Problematic in the Third World’, World Politics, 43 (1991), pp. 257283Google Scholar .

69 Maddy-Weitzman, Bruce, ‘Why Did Arab Monarchies Fall? An Analysis of Old and New Explanations’, in Kostiner, (ed.), The Middle Eastern Monarchies, p. 48Google Scholar .

70 For the evolution of Saudi Arabian government through the 20th century, see, Safran, Nadav, Saudi Arabia: The Ceaseless Quest for Security (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 1985)Google Scholar .

71 Gause, , ‘The Persistence’, in Kostiner, (ed.), Middle East Monarchies, pp. 178179.Google Scholar

72 Hart, Parker T., Saudi Arabia and the US: Birth of a Security Partnership (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1998), pp. 149150Google Scholar . Hart served as US ambassador during most of the crisis.

73 Ibid., p. 154.

74 Ibid., pp. 195–8, 210.

75 Goldberg, Jacob, ‘Saudi Arabia’, Middle East Contemporary Survey, 16 (1990), p. 591Google Scholar .

76 Ibid., p. 606.

77 Kostiner, Joseph‘Saudi Arabia’, Middle East Contemporary Survey, 17 (1991), pp. 631632Google Scholar .

78 Pollack, Josh, ‘Saudi Arabia And The US, 1931–2002’, Middle East Report of International Affairs, 6 (2002), p. 99Google Scholar .

79 ‘Jordan’, The Middle East 1958 (London: Europa, 1958), p. 258Google ScholarPubMed .

80 Garfinkle, Adam M., ‘US Decision-Making in the Jordan Crisis: Correcting the Record’, Political Science Quarterly, 100 (1985), p. 125CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

81 The latter point is Brand, Laurie A.'s central thesis in Jordan's Inter-Arab Relations: The Political Economy of Alliance Making (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994), pp. 8183.Google Scholar

82 Zoubir, Yahia, ‘Soviet Policy in the Maghreb’, Arab Studies Quarterly, 9 (1989), p. 129Google Scholar .

83 Zunes, Stephen, ‘The US and Morocco: The Sahara War and Regional Interests’, Arab Studies Quarterly, 9 (1987), p. 424Google Scholar .

84 Ibid.

85 This point complements Benny Miller's model that systemic factors are responsible for movement from Cold War to cold peace but are unable to influence either the change from Cold War to hot war and cold to warm peace. Only US hegemony, a systemic factor can ensure the protection of these regimes from outside forces. See, Miller, Benjamin, ‘Balance of Power or the State-to-Nation Balance: Explaining Middle East War-Propensity’, Security Studies, 15 (2006), pp. 658705CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed .

86 ‘For much of this time, all the Gulf States except Saudi Arabia were, in essence, British protectorates. Britain withdrew from the area in 1971. For the US and the entire industrialised world, stability in this region is vital. The relative share of Gulf energy is likely to grow in coming decades, as reserves elsewhere decline.’ See Sick, ‘The Coming’, p. 15.

87 In the early 1990s, the six monarchies in the Gulf alone accounted for 46.3 per cent of all proven oil reserves. See Gause, , ‘The Persistence’ in Oil Monarchies, p. 176Google Scholar . He also discusses the American foreign policy debate whether a strong presence in the area is necessary to assure oil or whether market forces would ensure oil supplies. At least since the 1990s, it would be fair to say that the US has opted to be on the safe side by ensuring a sizeable military presence in the area.

88 To gauge the Gulf states' importance for the US arms industry suffice to note that Saudi Arabian arms purchases alone amounted to 39.6 billion dollars between 1990–1999 while total US made arms sales for that period stood at 137.5 billion dollars. Figures derived from {www.deskbook.osdmil/reflib/ddod/001endoc.htm} and {www.fas.org/asmp/profiles/saudi_arabia.htm}.

89 Hart, , Saudi Arabia and the US, pp. 123124Google Scholar .