Hostname: page-component-84b7d79bbc-fnpn6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-28T15:16:32.315Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Party Systems and Realignments in the United States, 1868-2004

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2016

James E. Campbell
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

According to David Mayhew (2002: 58-59, 35), “Neither statistics nor stories bear out the canonical realignments calendar of 1860, 1896, and 1932,” and “no certifiable electoral realignment has occurred since 1932.” This study examines the national division of the U.S. presidential vote and House of Representatives seats from 1868 to 2004 to determine whether realignments occurred in 1896, 1932, and 1968 and whether other elections might be better designated as realignments. The analysis demonstrates the onset of realignments in the 1894-96 and 1930-32 elections and a staggered realignment in recent decades. Republicans registered significant durable gains in presidential voting starting in 1968 and in congressional elections in 1994. The analysis also finds evidence of a realignment favoring the Democrats in 1874-76.

Type
Articles
Information
Social Science History , Volume 30 , Issue 3 , Fall 2006 , pp. 359 - 386
Copyright
Copyright © Social Science History Association 2006 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan, and Saunders, Kyle L. (1998) “Ideological realignment in the U.S. electorate.” Journal of Politics 60: 634–52.Google Scholar
Aldrich, John H., and Niemi, Richard G. (1996) “The sixth American party system: Electoral change, 1952–1992,” in Craig, Stephen C. (ed.) Broken Contract? Changing Relationships between Americans and Their Government. Boulder, CO: Westview: 87–109.Google Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. (1998) “Electoral continuity and change, 1868-1996.” Electoral Studies 17: 275–300.Google Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. (2000) “Partisanship and voting behavior, 1952–1996.” American Journal of Political Science 44: 35–50.Google Scholar
Beck, Paul Allen (1999) “The changing American party coalitions,” in Green, John C. and Shea, Daniel M. (eds.) The State of the Parties: The Changing Role of Contemporary American Parties. 3rd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield: 28–49.Google Scholar
Black, Earl, and Black, Merle (2002) The Rise of Southern Republicans. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Bullock, Charles S. III (1988) “Regional realignment from an officeholding perspective.” Journal of Politics 50: 553–74.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean (1967) “Party systems and the political process,” in Chambers, William Nisbet and Burnham, Walter Dean (eds.) The American Party Systems: Stages of Political Development. New York: Oxford University Press: 277–307.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean (1970) Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean (1991) “Critical realignment: Dead or alive?” in Shafer, Byron E. (ed.) The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press: 101–39.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean, Clubb, Jerome M., and Flanigan, William H. (1978) “Partisan realignment: A systemic perspective,” in Silbey, Joel H., Bogue, Allan G., and Flanigan, William H. (eds.) The History of American Electoral Behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press: 45–77.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus (1966) “A classification of the presidential elections,” in Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E. (eds.) Elections and the Political Order. New York: Wiley: 63–77.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. (1997) The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections. 2nd ed. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. (2000) The American Campaign: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote. College Station: Texas A&M University Press.Google Scholar
Carmines, Edward G., and Stimson, James A. (1989) Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Chubb, John E. (1978) “Systems analysis and partisan realignment.” Social Science History 2: 144–71.Google Scholar
Clubb, Jerome M., Flanigan, William H., and Zingale, Nancy H. (1980) Partisan Realignment: Voters, Parties, and Government in American History. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. (1966) “The concept of the normal vote,” in Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E. (eds.) Elections and the Political Order. New York: Wiley: 9–39.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, John A., and Fiorina, Morris P. (1985) “Incumbency and realignment in congressional elections,” in Chubb, John E. and Peterson, Paul E. (eds.) The New Direction in American Politics. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution: 91–115.Google Scholar
Gans, Daniel J. (1985) “Persistence of party success in American presidential elections.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 16: 221–37.Google Scholar
Glad, Paul W. (1964) McKinley, Bryan, and the People. New York: Lippincott.Google Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. (2001) “Resurgent mass partisanship: The role of elite polarization.” American Political Science Review 95: 619–31.Google Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. (2000) “Reversal of fortune: The transformation of U.S. House elections in the 1990s,” in Brady, David W., Cogan, John F., and Fiorina, Morris P. (eds.) Continuity and Change in House Elections. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press: 10–38.Google Scholar
Keith, Bruce E., Magleby, David B., Nelson, Candice J., Orr, Elizabeth, Westlye, Mark C., and Wolfinger, Raymond E. (1992) The Myth of the Independent Voter. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr. (1955) “A theory of critical elections.” Journal of Politics 17: 3–18.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr. (1959) “Secular realignment and the party system.” Journal of Politics 21: 198–210.Google Scholar
Kleppner, Paul (1972) “The political revolution of the 1890s: A behavioral interpretation,” in Silbey, Joel H. and McSeveney, Samuel T. (eds.) Voters, Parties, and Elections: Quantitative Essays in the History of American Popular Voting Behavior. Lexington, MA: Xerox College Publishing: 184–94.Google Scholar
Kleppner, Paul (1981) “Critical realignments and electoral systems,” in Kleppner, Paul, Burnham, Walter Dean, Formisano, Ronald P., Hays, Samuel P., Jensen, Richard, and Shade, William G. (eds.) The Evolution of American Electoral Systems. Westport, CT: Greenwood: 3–32.Google Scholar
Ladd, Everett Carll (1985) “As the realignment turns: A drama in many acts.” Public Opinion 7: 2–7.Google Scholar
Ladd, Everett Carll (1989) “The 1988 elections: Continuation of the post-New Deal system.” Political Science Quarterly 104: 1–18.Google Scholar
Ladd, Everett Carll (1991) “Like waiting for Godot: The uselessness of ‘realignment’ for understanding change in contemporary American politics,” in Shafer, Byron E. (ed.) The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press: 24–36.Google Scholar
Ladd, Everett Carll (1995) “1994 vote: Against the backdrop of continuing realignment,” in Ladd, Everett Carll (ed.) America at the Polls, 1994. Storrs: University of Connecticut, Roper Center: 19–29.Google Scholar
Ladd, Everett Carll (1997) “1996 vote: The ‘no majority’ realignment continues.” Political Science Quarterly 112: 1–28.Google Scholar
Ladd, Everett Carll Jr., and Hadley, Charles D. (1978) Transformations of the American Party System: Political Coalitions from the New Deal to the 1970s. 2nd ed. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Lawrence, David, and Fleisher, Richard (1987) “Puzzles and confusion: Political realignment in the 1980s.” Political Science Quarterly 102: 79–92.Google Scholar
Lichtman, Allan J. (1976) “Critical election theory and the reality of American presidential politics, 1916-40.” American Historical Review 81: 317–51.Google Scholar
Mayhew, David R. (2002) Electoral Realignments: A Critique of an American Genre. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
McCormick, Richard L. (1986) “Walter Dean Burnham and ‘the System of 1896.’” Social Science History 10: 245–62.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E. (1991) “Party identification, realignment, and party voting: Back to the basics.” American Political Science Review 85: 557–68.Google Scholar
Moore, John L., Preimesberger, Jon P., and Tarr, David R., eds. (2001) Congressional Quarterly’s Guide to U.S. Elections. 4th ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut (1987) “Under way and here to stay: Party realignment in the 1980s?” Public Opinion Quarterly 51: 376–91.Google Scholar
Petrocik, John R. (1981) Party Coalitions: Realignments and the Decline of the New Deal Party System. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Petrocik, John R. (1987) “Realignment: New party coalitions and the nationalization of the South.” Journal of Politics 49: 347–75.Google Scholar
Rosenof, Theodore (2003) Realignment: The Theory That Changed the Way We Think about American Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Rousseeuw, Peter J., and Leroy, Annick M. (1987) Robust Regression and Outlier Detection. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Sellers, Charles (1965) “The equilibrium cycle in two-party politics.” Public Opinion Quarterly 29: 16–37.Google Scholar
Shafer, Byron E. (1991) “The notion of an electoral order: The structure of electoral politics at the accession of George Bush,” in Shafer, Byron E. (ed.) The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press: 37–84.Google Scholar
Silbey, Joel H. (1991) “Beyond realignment and realignment theory: American political eras, 1789–1989,” in Shafer, Byron E. (ed.) The End of Realignment? Interpreting American Electoral Eras. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press: 3–23.Google Scholar
Stanley, Harold W. (1988) “Southern partisan changes: Dealignment, realignment, or both?” Journal of Politics 50: 64–88.Google Scholar
Sundquist, James L. (1983) Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States. Rev. ed. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Wattenberg, Martin P. (1987) “The hollow realignment: Partisan change in a candidate-centered era.” Public Opinion Quarterly 51: 58–74.Google Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E. (1985) “Dealignment, realignment, and mandates in the 1984 election,” in Ranney, Austin (ed.) The American Elections of 1984. Durham, NC: Duke University Press: 277–96.Google Scholar