Hostname: page-component-7bb8b95d7b-nptnm Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-09-06T20:16:46.591Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Minority Party Gains Under State Legislative Term Limits

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Richard J. Powell
Richard J. Powell*
Affiliation:
University of Maine
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The term limits movement of the 1990s was largely driven by Republican-led groups as part of a larger strategy to unseat entrenched Democratic incumbents in Congress and state legislatures. Likewise, many political scientists predicted that, as the traditional minority party, Republicans would benefit from term limits by eliminating the Democrats' incumbency advantage. However, other studies provided reasons to be skeptical of these predicted gains. No empirical study has yet examined the accuracy of these predictions. This study seeks to fill this void by utilizing multivariate data analysis to study the impact of term limits on the partisan composition of state legislatures from 1990 to 2004. The findings suggest that, holding other factors constant, Republicans have not gained representation at the state legislative level under term limits as was predicted.

Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 8 , Issue 1 , Spring 2008 , pp. 32 - 47
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 by the Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan, Alexander, Brad, and Gunning, Matthew. 2006. “Don't Blame Redistricting for Uncompetitive Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics 39:87–90.Google Scholar
Alford, John R., and Brady, David W.. 1993. “Personal and Partisan Advantages in U.S. Congressional Elections, 1846–1992.” In Congress Reconsidered, 5th ed., eds. Dodd, Lawrence C. and Oppenheimer, Bruce I.. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Benjamin, Gerald, and Malbin, Michael, eds. 1992. Limiting Congressional Terms. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Bowser, Jennifer Drage. 2005. “The Effects of Legislative Term Limits.” In The Book of the States 2005. Lexington, KY: Council of State Governments.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 1996. Cheap Seats: The Democratic Party's Advantage in U.S. House Elections. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 1986. “Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections.” American Political Science Review 80:45–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caress, Stanley M. 1996. “The Influence of Term Limits on the Electoral Success of Women.” Women and Politics 20:45–63.Google Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 2000a. “Incumbency and the Probability of Re-election in State Legislative Elections.” Journal of Politics 62:671–700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 2000b. Term Limits in State Legislatures. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carroll, Susan J. 1985. Women as Candidates in American Politics. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.Google Scholar
Carroll, Susan J., and Jenkins, Krista. 2001. “Do Term Limits Help Women Get Elected?” Social Science Quarterly 82:197–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chubb, John E. 1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.” American Political Science Review 82:133–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, Irene. 1977. Sex Roles in State Houses. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., and McIver, John P.. 1993. Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Farmer, Rick, Rausch, John David Jr., and Green, John C.. 2003. The Test of Time: Coping with Legislative Term Limits. Lanham, MD: Lexington Press.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, John A. 1977. “On the Decline of Competition in Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 71:174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1977. “The Case of the Vanishing Marginals: The Bureaucracy Did It.” American Political Science Review 71:177.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garand, James C. 1991. “Electoral Marginality in State Legislative Elections, 1968–86.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 16:7–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and King, Gary. 1990. “Measuring Incumbency Without Bias.” American Journal of Political Science 34:1142–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilmour, John B., and Rothstein, Paul. 1994. “Term Limitation in a Dynamic Model of Partisan Balance.” American Journal of Political Science 38:770–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gimpel, James G., and Schuknecht, Jason E.. 2003. Patchwork Nation: Sectionalism and Political Change in American Politics. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 2001. “Resurgent Mass Partisanship: The Role of Elite Polarization.” American Political Science Review 95:619–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1987. “The Marginals Never Vanished: Incumbency and Competition in Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, 1952–1982.” American Journal of Political Science 31:126–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 2001. The Politics of Congressional Elections, 5th ed. New York, NY: Longman Publishing.Google Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 2003. The Politics of Congressional Elections, 6th ed. New York, NY: Longman Publishing.Google Scholar
Jewell, Malcolm E., and Breaux, David. 1988. “The Effect of Incumbency on State Legislative Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 13:495–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mann, Thomas E. 1977. Unsafe at Any Margin: Interpreting Congressional Elections. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy.Google Scholar
Mayhew, David R. 1974a. “Congressional Elections: The Case of the Vanishing Marginals.” Polity 6:295–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayhew, David R. 1974b. Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
McDonald, Michael P. 2004. “A Comparative Analysis of U.S. State Redistricting Institutions.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4:371–96.Google Scholar
McDonald, Michael P. 2006. “Drawing the Line on District Competition.” PS: Political Science and Politics 39:91–4.Google Scholar
Moen, Matthew C., and Palmer, Kenneth T.. 2003. “Maine: The Cutting Edge of Term Limits.” In The Test of Time: Coping with Legislative Term Limits, eds. Farmer, Rick, Rausch, John David Jr., and Green, John C.. Lanham, MD: Lexington Press.Google Scholar
Moen, Matthew C., Palmer, Kenneth T., and Powell, Richard J.. 2005. Changing Members: The Maine Legislature in the Era of Term Limits. Lanham, MD: Lexington Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Richard J. 2003. “The Unintended Effects of Term Limits on the Career Paths of State Legislators.” In The Test of Time: Coping with Legislative Term Limits, eds. Farmer, Rick, Rausch, John David Jr., and Green, John C.. Lanham, MD: Lexington Press.Google Scholar
Rausch, John David Jr. 2003. “Understanding the Term Limits Movement.” In The Test of Time: Coping with Legislative Term Limits, eds. Farmer, Rick, Rausch, John David Jr., and Green, John C.. Lanham, MD: Lexington Press.Google Scholar
Rosenthal, Alan. 1981. Legislative Life. New York, NY: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Rothenberg, Stuart. 1992. “Transplanting Term Limits: Political Mobilization and Grass Roots Politics.” In Limiting Legislative Terms, eds. Benjamin, Gerald and Malbin, Michael J.. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Sarbaugh-Thompson, Marjorie, Thompson, Lyke, Elder, Charles D., and Strate, John. 2006. Political and Institutional Effects of Term Limits. New York, NY: Palgrave-Macmillan.Google Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 1992. “Legislative Professionalization and Membership Diversity in State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 17:69–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stonecash, Jeffrey M., Brewer, Mark D., and Mariani, Mack D.. 2003. Diverging Parties: Social Change, Realignment, and Party Polarization. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Weber, Ronald E. 2000. “Race-Based Districting: Does it Help or Hinder Legislative Representation?” Political Geography 19:213–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weber, Ronald E., Tucker, Harvey J., and Brace, Paul. 1991. “Vanishing Marginals in State Legislative Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 16:29–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wink, Kenneth A., and Weber, Ronald E.. 2005. “Do Democrats and Republicans Pay the Same Price for Seats in U.S. State Lower House Seats? An Analysis of ‘Cheap Seats’ in Forty Four States.” American Review of Politics 26:305–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar