Hostname: page-component-5c6d5d7d68-txr5j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-08-18T02:41:48.921Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Task content routinisation, technological change and labour turnover: Evidence from China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2023

Du Yuhong Open the ORCID record for Du Yuhong [Opens in a new window]  and
Wei Xiahai
Du Yuhong
Affiliation:
Huaqiao University, China
Wei Xiahai*
Affiliation:
Huaqiao University, China
*
Wei Xiahai, Institute of Economic Development and Reform, Huaqiao University, Avenue 666 Jimei District, Xiamen 361021, China. Email: weixiahai@hqu.edu.cn
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article addresses the unresolved question of whether recent technological change causes job instability in a non-western context. China is now the world’s largest user of industrial robots. A Lewis turning point has been predicted, involving a transition from a plentiful supply of rural low-cost workers to a labour shortage economy in which rising labour costs drive labour-technology substitution. The routine-biased technological change hypothesis suggests that technology-induced routinisation in job task content has a profound impact on employment structure. This study captures the extent of routinisation of jobs in the transitional context of China and examines the incidence and impact of routinisation on labour turnover in the labour market. Using rotating panel data from the China Labour-force Dynamics Survey 2012, 2014 and 2016, this study, based on individual information with regard to flexibility in work schedules and degree of autonomy in workload and task content on the job, follows a recently developed measure to construct a routine intensity index and indicates a division into three routine intensity groups. The empirical findings show that the probability of job mobility is significantly increased with the magnitude of routine task intensity, suggesting that the process of technology-induced routinisation is strongly associated with labour turnover.

Keywords

J63J20Chinese labour marketlabour turnoverLewis turning pointroutine intensity indexroutine-biased technological changeroutinisationskill-based technological change
Type
Themed collection articles
Information
The Economic and Labour Relations Review , Volume 31 , Issue 3: The Future of Work , September 2020 , pp. 324 - 346
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, D and Autor, DH (2011) Skills, tasks and technologies: implications for employment and earnings. In: Card, D and Ashenfelter, O (eds) Handbook of Labor Economics. New York: Elsevier, pp. 1043–1171.Google Scholar
Aguiar do Monte, P (2012) Job dissatisfaction and labour turnover: evidence from Brazil. International Journal of Human Resource Management 23(2): 1717–1735.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, DH and Dorn, D (2013) The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review 103(5): 1553–1597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, DH, Katz, LF and Kearney, MS (2006) The polarization of the U.S. labor market. American Economic Review 96(2): 189–194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Autor, DH, Levy, F and Murnane, RJ (2003) The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(4): 1279–1333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barbieri, L, Piva, M and Vivarelli, M (2019) R&D, embodied technological change, and employment: evidence from Italian microdata. Industrial and Corporate Change 28(1): 203–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berman, E, Bound, J and Griliches, Z (1994) Changes in the demand for skilled labor within US manufacturing industries: evidence from the annual survey of manufacturing. Quarterly Journal of Economics 109(2): 367–397.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berman, E, Bound, J and Machin, S (1998) Implications of skill-biased technological change: international evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics 113(4): 1245–1279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Betts, JR (1997) The skill bias of technological change in Canadian manufacturing industries. The Review of Economics and Statistics 79(1): 146–150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bogliacino, F and Pianta, M (2010) Innovation and employment: a reinvestigation using revised Pavitt classes. Research Policy 39(6): 799–809.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bogliacino, F and Vivarelli, M (2012) The job creation effect of R&D expenditures. Australian Economic Papers 51(2): 96–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyer, R (1988) Technical change and the theory of regulation. In: Dosi, D, Freeman, C, Nelson, RR, et al. (eds) Technical Change and Economic Theory. London: Pinter, pp. 67–94.Google Scholar
Casavola, P, Gavosto, A and Sestito, P (1996) Technical progress and wage dispersion in Italy: evidence from firms’ data. Annales d’Economie et de Statistique 41/42: 387–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coad, A and Rao, R (2011) The firm-level employment effects of innovations in high-tech US manufacturing industries. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 21(2): 255–283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cronbach, J (1951) Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests. Psychometrika 16(3): 297–334.Google Scholar
Falk, M and Koebel, BM (2004) The impact of office machinery and computer capital on the demand for heterogeneous labour. Labour Economics 11(1): 99–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fonseca, T, Lima, F and Pereira, SC (2018) Job polarization, technological change and routinization: evidence for Portugal. Labour Economics 51(C): 317–339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frey, CB and Osborne, MA (2017) The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114(C): 254–280.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gera, S, Gu, W and Lin, Z (2001) Technology and the demand for skills: an industry-level analysis. Canadian Journal of Economics 34(1): 132–148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goos, M and Manning, A (2007) Lousy and lovely jobs: the rising polarization of work in Britain. The Review of Economics and Statistics 89(1): 118–133.Google Scholar
Goos, M, Manning, A and Salomons, A (2014) Explaining job polarization: routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review 104(8): 2509–2526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goux, D and Maurin, E (2000) The decline in demand for unskilled labor: an empirical analysis and its application to France. The Review of Economics and Statistics 82(4): 596–607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greenan, N and Guellec, D (2000) Technological innovation and employment reallocation. Labour 14(4): 547–590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harrison, R, Jaumandreu, J, Mairesse, J, et al. (2014) Does innovation stimulate employment? A firm-level analysis using comparable micro-data from four European countries. International Journal of Industrial Organization 35(C): 29–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haskel, J and Heden, Y (1999) Computers and the demand for skilled labour: industry- and establishment-level evidence for the UK. Economic Journal 109(454): 68–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heyman, F (2016) Job polarization, job tasks and the role of firms. Economics Letter 145(C): 246–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hinks, T and Watson, D (2001) A multinomial logit nondiscriminatory approach to estimating racial wage and occupational discrimination. Applied Economics 33(5): 605–612.Google Scholar
Kampelmann, S and Rycx, F (2011) Task-biased changes of employment and remuneration: the case of occupations. IZA DP no. 5470. Bonn: IZA Institute of Labor Economics.Google Scholar
Katz, LF and Murphy, KM (1992) Changes in relative wages, 1963–1987: supply and demand factors. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(1): 35–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klimova, A (2012) Gender differences in determinants of occupational choice in Russia. International Journal of Social Economics 39(9): 648–670.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lachenmaier, S and Rottmann, H (2011) Effects of innovation on employment: a dynamic panel analysis. International Journal of Industrial Organization 29(2): 210–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Layard, R and Nickell, S (1985) The causes of British unemployment. National Institute Economic Review 111(1): 62–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Machin, S (1996) Changes in the relative demand for skills. In: Booth, AL and Snower, DJ (eds) Acquiring Skills: Market Failures, their Symptoms and Policy Responses. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 129–146.Google Scholar
Mairesse, J, Greenan, N and Topiol-Bensaid, A (2001) Information technology and research and development impacts on productivity and skills: a comparison on French firm level data. NBER working paper no. 8075. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manyika, J, Chui, M, Miremadi, M, et al. (2017) A Future that Works: AI, Automation, Employment, and Productivity. San Francisco, CA: McKinsey Global Institute.Google Scholar
Manyika, J, Lund, S, Auguste, BG, et al. (2011) Change an Economy that Works: Job Creation and America’s Future. San Francisco, CA: McKinsey Global Institute.Google Scholar
Marcolin, L, Miroudot, S and Squicciarini, M (2019) To be (routine) or not to be (routine), that is the question: a cross-country task-based answer. Industrial and Corporate Change 28(3): 477–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mastrostefano, V and Pianta, M (2009) Technology and jobs. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 18(8): 729–741.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Michaels, G, Natraj, A and Van Reenen, J (2014) Has ICT polarized skill demand? Evidence from eleven countries over twenty-five years. The Review of Economics and Statistics 96(1): 60–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Montresor, G (2019) Job polarization and labour supply changes in the UK. Labour Economics 58(C): 187–203.Google Scholar
Pasinetti, L (1981) Structural Change and Economic Growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Piva, M and Vivarelli, M (2002) The skill bias: Comparative evidence and an econometric test. International Review of Applied Economics 16(3): 347–357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piva, M and Vivarelli, M (2004) Technological change and employment: some micro evidence from Italy. Applied Economics Letters 11(6): 373–376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piva, M and Vivarelli, M (2005) Innovation and employment: evidence from Italian microdata. Journal of Economics 86(1): 65–83.Google Scholar
Piva, M and Vivarelli, M (2018) Technological change and employment: is Europe ready for the challenge? Eurasian Business Review 8(1): 13–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reijnders, LSM and de Vries, GJ (2017) Job polarization in advanced and emerging countries: the role of task relocation and technological change within global supply chains. GGDC Research memoranda no. 167. Groningen: Groningen Growth and Development Centre.Google Scholar
Salvatori, A (2018) The anatomy of job polarisation in the UK. Journal for Labour Market Research 52: 8.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Say, JB (1964 [1803]) A Treatise on Political Economy or the Production, Distribution and Consumption of Wealth. New York: M. Kelley.Google Scholar
Simonetti, R, Taylor, K and Vivarelli, M (2000) Modelling the employment impact of innovation. In: Vivarelli, M and Pianta, M (eds) The Employment Impact of Innovation: Evidence and Policy. London: Routledge, pp. 26–43.Google Scholar
Sinclair, PJN (1981) When will technical progress destroy jobs? Oxford Economic Papers 31(1): 1–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Souza-Poza, A and Souza-Poza, A (2007) The effect of job satisfaction on labour turnover by gender: an analysis for Switzerland. The Journal of Socio-Economics 36(6): 895–913.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spitz-Oener, A (2006) Technical change, job tasks, and rising educational demands: looking outside the wage structure. Journal of Labor Economics 24(2): 235–270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steuart, J (1966 [1767]) An Inquiry into the Principles of Political Economy. Chicago: Oliver and Boyd.Google Scholar
Tran, TQ, Tran, AL, Pham, TM, et al. (2018) Local governance and occupational choice among young people: first evidence from Vietnam. Children and Youth Services Review 86(2): 21–31.Google Scholar
Van Roy, V, Vértesy, D and Vivarelli, M (2018) Technology and employment: mass unemployment or job creation? Empirical evidence from European patenting firms. Research Policy 47(9): 1762–1776.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vivarelli, M (1995) The Economics of Technology and Employment: Theory and Empirical Evidence. Aldershot: Elgar.Google Scholar
Vivarelli, M (2013) Technology, employment and skills: an interpretative framework. Eurasian Business Review 3(1): 66–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank (2016) World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (2019) World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar