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Beyond Product Cycles and Flying Geese: Regionalization, Hierarchy, and the Industrialization of East Asia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 June 2011

Mitchell Bernard
Affiliation:
York University
John Ravenhill
Affiliation:
Australian National University
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Abstract

Product cycle theory as expressed in the analogy of flying geese has become a widely accepted way of conceptualizing industrial diffusion across East Asia. As the product cycle is repeated for increasingly sophisticated products, so, it is argued, the development trajectory of Japan will be replicated in a succession of sectors and countries. This approach fails, however, to capture the complexities of the contemporary regionalization of industrial production. East Asian industrial production should not be seen as a tightly coupled process in which the rise of national economies parallels successive product cycles. Rather than Japan's development trajectory being replicated in country after country, industrial diffusion has been characterized by shifting hierarchical networks of production and partial diffusion into diverse politicoeconomic contexts at differing historical junctures. It has also resulted in a triangulation of the region's trade patterns that has generated large imbalances in trade both within the region and between the region and the United States.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1995

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References

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28 These figures are those officially recorded for Taiwanese investment. All of the evidence points to these being only a small fraction of actual Taiwanese overseas investment. The World Bank notes that Taiwan's balance of payments figures suggest that investments are twenty-five times those actually recorded; data on inflows from Taiwan reported by host countries similarly reveal very large discrepancies from official Taiwanese data. World Bank, Foreign Direct Investmentfrom the Newly Industrialized Economies, Industry and Energy Department Working Paper, Industry Series Paper no. 22 (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, December 1989), 10.Google Scholar

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40 Much of this information is based on interviews conducted by Mitchell Bernard with company representatives, Taipei, June 1991.

41 Original equipment manufacturing is an arrangement whereby a corporation will contract for another firm to manufacture one or more of its products to its specifications and to be marketed under its brand name.

42 In the prerecession year of 1991 domestic production of consumer electronics was in fact higher than in 1986. Nihon Denshi Kikai Kogyokai (Electronics Industries Association of Japan), Chosashitsu Shirabe (Research report) (Tokyo: Nihon Denshi Kikai Kogyokai, various years).

43 Jingjibu Tongjichu (Ministry of Economic Affairs statistics) (1991).

44 Interviews conducted by Mitchell Bernard with representatives of both companies, Taipei, March 1992.

45 See Bernard, Mitchell, “The Post-Plaza Political Economy of Taiwanese-Japanese Relations,” Pacific Review 4, no. 4 (1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Japanese imports of audiovisual equipment and household electrical appliances from Korea and Taiwan fell by one-third from 1989 to 1991; in the same period Japanese exports of these products to these two countries rose by over 40 percent. Consequently, the index of intraindustry trade in electronic goods between Japan and Korea and Taiwan fell from 0.55 to 0.31 in this period. Hiroshi Tanaki, “Overseas Direct Investment and Trade: Investment by Japanese Consumer Electrical Appliance Industries in ASEAN and the Import of Such Products into Japan,” Exim Review 13 (December 1993), 27, table 15.

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56 For several examples relating to Taiwan, see Bernard (fn. 45).

57 Taiwan Institute for Information Industry, Taipei, 1992 (mimeographed statistics).

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59 Petri (fn. 9, 1993), 32.

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63 Bank of Korea (fn. 52).

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65 Authors who have applied the flying geese analogy to Southeast Asia include Lim, Hank, “Japan and the Asian Newly Industrializing Economies,” in Kendall, Harry H. and Joewono, Clara, eds., Japan, ASEAN, and the United States (Berkeley, Calif.: Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley, 1991), 216-17Google Scholar; Chen, Edward K. Y., “Trade Policy in Asia,” in Naya, Seiji et al. , eds., Lessons in Development: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America (San Francisco: International Center for Economic Growth, 1989)Google Scholar; Okita, Saburo, “The Outlook for Pacific Cooperation and the Role of Japan,” Japan Review of International Affairs 1 (Spring—Summer 1987), 4Google Scholar; and Schlosstein, Steven, Asia's New Little Dragons: The Dynamic Emergence of Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia (Chicago: Contemporary Books, 1991), 32Google Scholar. The analogy is applied to the Southeast Asian electronics industry in Chalmers, Ian, “International and Regional Integration: The Political Economy of the Electronics Industry in ASEAN,” ASEAN Economic Bulletin 8 (November 1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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70 Thus in 1989 purchases from local companies amounted to ony 14.5 percent of the components utilized by Japanese subsidiaries in the electronics sector. This sector had the highest local content: local companies provided only 3.3 percent of inputs in the transport field. All data in this section are from a JETRO survey of Japanese subsidiaries in Malaysia reported in Aoki (fn. 29).

71 Reich, Cf. Robert B., The Work of Nations (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1991)Google Scholar.

72 O'Brien, “Malaysian Manufacturing Sector Linkages,” injomo (fn. 23), 157, 159.

73 Tanaka (fn. 45), 31, table 17.

74 Aoki (fn. 29).

75 This is estimated at 0.5 percent to 0.6 percent of GDP for Malaysia, but the bulk of local expenditure for R and D is devoted to the primary products sector. Ibid., 77. In 1990 Korea spent approximately 2 percent of its GDP on R and D; the equivalent figure for Taiwan was 1.65 percent.

76 For one dimension of state-society relations, the relationship between business and the state, see, for instance, Hawes, Gary and Liu, Hong, “Explaining the Dynamics of the Southeast Asian Political Economy: State, Society, and the Search for Economic Growth,” World Politics 45 (July 1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Maclntyre, Andrew, ed., Business and Government in Industrializing East Asia (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1994)Google Scholar.

77 Fankel, Jeffrey, “Is a Yen Bloc Forming in Pacific Asia?” in O'Brien, R., ed., Finance and the International Economy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991)Google Scholar; and Petri (fn. 9, 1993).

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80 World Bank (fn. 28), 24, table 8.

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82 Takaoka and Satake (fn. 79), 17.

83 The share of local, Japanese, and other markets varied considerably across sectors. Local sales were particularly high in transport machinery (over 90 percent) and iron and steel (over 85 percent). It is particularly noteworthy that sales to other export markets were highest (over 35 percent) for the most rapidly growing sector of Japanese manufacturing investment—electrical machinery. See Takaoka and Satake (fn. 79), 17; and additional data from Urata (fn. 79). Japanese subsidiaries operating in Korea do send a larger percentage of their exports to Japan. In 1985, however, one-third of the exports of Japanese subsidiaries in Korea went to the U.S. market. Sakong (fn. 22), 122, table 5.8.

84 In 1992 the United States had a trade deficit of $12.5 billion with the member states of ASEAN (excluding Brunei). The deficit with the People's Republic of China in the same year was $18.3 billion. Malaysia contributed 4.7 percent of the total U.S. trade deficit; Thailand 4.2 percent; Indonesia 2.1 percent; Singapore, 2.0 percent; and the Philippines 1.9 percent. Data from United States Information Service, Wireless File, May 17, 1993.

85 See, inter alia, Amsden (fn. 47); Haggard, Stephan, Pathways from the Periphery: The Politics of Growth in the Newly Industrializing Countries (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1990)Google Scholar; Gereffi, Gary and Wyman, Donald, eds., Manufacturing Miracles: Paths of Industrialization in Latin America and East Asia (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992)Google Scholar; Wade, Robert, Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1990)Google Scholar; idem, , “East Asia's Economic Success: Conflicting Perspectives, Partial Insights, Shaky Evidence,” World Politics 44 (January 1992)Google Scholar.

86 The neoclassical theory of growth suggests that economies will converge as they exploit their comparative advantage to pass through successive stages of growth. We find more persuasive the recent endogenous growth theories that emphasize the role of technology in generating increasing returns to scale: rather than convergence, a widening gap may develop between richer and poorer economies. On endogenous growth models, see, for instance, Romer, Paul, “The Origins of Endogenous Growth,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 8 (Winter 1994)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

87 See Lim and Fong (fn. 69).

88 For an argument stressing the need to broaden research horizons on collective action problems beyond the focus on state strength, see Doner, Richard F., “Limits of State Strength: Toward an Institutionalist View of Economic Development,” World Politics 44 (April 1992)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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