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⁹ Riker(fn. 7), 11.

¹⁰ Nelson Kasfir, “Uganda,” Microsoft Encarta Online Encyclopedia 2002 (http://encarta.msn.com).

¹¹ These ratings (available at www.freedomhouse.org) cover 1972–2003. For cases not covered by Freedom House ratings, judgment was based on expert accounts (in such instances, judgments about temporary shifts away from democracy are not reported in Figure 1, for simplicity's sake, as these do not matter for the overall findings). Since the general conclusions of this study are confirmed regardless of whether any borderline-democracy cases are excluded or included, the presumption is to include them so readers can see for themselves that their inclusion or exclusion makes no difference to the overall empirical findings and argument.

¹² On Sudan, see Kasfir, Nelson, “Southern Sudanese Politics since the Addis Ababa Agreement,” African Affairs 76 (April 1977)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Niblock, Timothy C., “A New Political System in Sudan,” African Affairs 73 (October 1974)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. On Burma, see the Constitution of the Union of Burma, 1948 (www.shanland.org, accessed January 19,2004); and Silverstein, Josef, “The Federal Dilemma in Burma,” Far Eastern Survey 28 (July 1959)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹³ For one study of partial ethnofederations, see Cornell, Svante E., “Autonomy as a Source of Conflict: Caucasian Conflicts in Theoretical Perspective,” World Politics 54 (January 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁴ In general, while we cannot assume a perfectly linear relationship, one should expect to see the dynamics of the present theory at work more clearly the greater the gap between the largest and second-largest regions.

¹⁵ Dennison Rusinow, “Yugoslavia,” Microsoft Encarta Online Encyclopedia 2002 (http://encarta .msn.com).

¹⁶ India ultimately intervened after the bloody civil war had ground on for close to nine months, producing a quick surrender by the unionist Pakistani army and securing independence for Bangladesh. Violence related to this war, mostly involving unionist groups that had fought with the Pakistani army in Bangladesh, continued sporadically for over three more months after the formal Pakistani surrender in Bangladesh; see reports by Sydney Schanberg, New York Times, March 17, 1972, 1–2, and March 23,1972,12. If, for coding purposes, we treat the formal Pakistani army surrender to India in December 1971 as the end of the civil war, then Pakistan simply becomes an especially bloody case of “state survival”; this does not have any impact on the overall assessment of patterns in the evidence and still reflects badly on core-ethnic-region ethnofederalism, as will be clear below.

¹⁷ The notion of state collapse, therefore, is only one form (but an extremely important form) of “state failure” as defined by King, Gary and Zeng, Langche, “Improving Forecasts of State Failure,” World Politics 53 (July 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For them, state failure includes not only state collapse as defined here but also such phenomena as state sponsorship of terrorism, which can certainly be conducted by very strong states that in no way can be said to have collapsed.

¹⁸ Watts (fn. 6).

¹⁹ Horowitz (fn. 6); Hechter (fn. 6), 83.

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²¹ Tilly (fn. 20), 521. Of course, dual-power situations can occur within isolated regions of a country, as when the Chechen leadership challenges Moscow's authority locally. What makes a core ethnic region particularly important is that it spawns challenges that threaten the authority of the central government across the country's whole territory.

²² Brinton (fn. 20), 133–34.

²³ Others, from John Stuart Mill in Representative Government to Jonathan Lemco, stress a closely related form of tension in federations more generally, noting that it often comes to a head when deciding how many seats to allocate to each region in federal parliaments; Lemco, see, Political Stability in Federal Government (New York: Praeger, 1991)Google Scholar.

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²⁹ Horowitz (fn. 6); Hale (fn. 25).

³⁰ Elazar, Daniel J., Federal Systems of the World (Essex: Longman, 1991)Google Scholar; Gurr (fn. 5). In this compilation process, I consulted a great deal of published material and also regional experts where cases remained unclear. If any cases have been omitted from this study, it can be concluded that such cases are likely quite obscure, not cited by major works on ethnofederalism and not widely discussed by area experts. The only category of state systematically omitted from the study is that of island microstates with federal state structures, on which reliable data on the relationship between federal structure and ethnic composition have proved extremely elusive. Island ministates listed as federations by Elazar include Antigua and Barbuda, the Comoros, the Netherlands Antilles, St. Kitts & Nevis, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu.

³¹ Elazar(fn.30), 160.

³² On Cameroon, see Awasom, Nicodemus Fru, “Negotiating Federalism: How Ready were Cameroonian Leaders before the February 1961 United Nations Plebiscites?” Canadian Journal of African Studies 36, no. 3 (2002)Google Scholar; Chiabi, Emmanuel, The Making of Modern Cameroon, vol. 1 (Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1997)Google Scholar; and Nkwi, Paul Nchoji and Nyamnjoh, Francis B., eds., Regional Balance andNationalIntegration in Cameroon (Leiden, The Netherlands: African Studies Centre, 1995)Google Scholar.

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³⁴ Some have classified Pakistan as having been an (ethno-) federation since 1956, when a nominally federal constitution was adopted. It is not coded as being ethnofederal here until 1970, since elections were not held for the federal and provincial parliaments between 1956 and 1970. See Baxter, Craig, “Pakistan Votes—1970,” Asian Survey 11 (March 1971)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. This coding decision, however, has no impact on this article's overall findings.

³⁵ Martin Dent, “Ethnicity and Territorial Politics in Nigeria,” in Smith (fn. 5). See also the case study on Nigeria below.

³⁶ The four western provinces were created from a united Western province just prior to the 1970 elections.

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⁴³ Indeed, this study nowhere claims that ethnofederations without a core ethnic region will never collapse in the face of such pressures, just that they are less likely to do so than those with a core ethnic region.

⁴⁴ Here see works cited in fn. 2, most notably Bunce and Leff.

⁴⁵ For one of many works reporting such predictions, see Treisman, Daniel, After the Deluge (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1999), 3CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴⁶ This outcome was widely attributed to a devastating cyclone that hit the Eastern province just three weeks before the voting; when Western-based Pakistani authorities were not perceived to have responded adequately, support for the leading Eastern party surged in the core East. As a result, it won almost every Eastern seat, which was enough to constitute an outright majority in the parliament of Pakistan as a whole. See Baxter (fn. 34).

⁴⁷ Most prominently, Lijphart (fn. 5).

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⁵¹ Dent (fn. 35); Lijphart (fn. 5), 161–64. A fourth state was created in 1963 from the territory of the Yoruba region.

⁵² Dent (fn. 35), 131.

⁵³ Okpu, Ugbana, “Ethnic Minorities and Federal Character,” in Ekeh, P. P. and Osaghae, E. E., eds., Federal Character andFederalism inNigeria (Ibadan, Nigeria: Heinemann Educational Books, 1989), 357Google Scholar.

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⁵⁵ Horowitz (fn. 6), 612.

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⁵⁷ For more on how this article's logic explains developments in the USSR and Russia, see Henry E. Hale, “Designing Ethnofederalism for Divided Societies: Why Russia Survives Where the USSR Fell,” Perspectives on Politics (forthcoming).

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