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Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think, Therefore I Deter
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 13 June 2011
Abstract
Deterrence theories purport to supply the auxiliary assumptions rational choice theories need to predict rational strategic behavior. They generally assume that would-be initiators are (i) instrumentally rational; (2) risk-prone gain-maximizers; (3) free of domestic constraints; and (4) able to identify themselves correctly as defenders or challengers. These assumptions are contradicted by empirical studies that indicate that risk-prone, gain-maximizing initiators are relatively uncommon; that leaders at times calculate as deterrence theories expect, but behave contrary to their predictions; and that the calculus of initiators generally depends on factors other than those identified by deterrence theories. Deductive theories of deterrence are also inadequate because they do not define their scope conditions. Nor can they accommodate deviation by initiators from processes of rational calculation. Rational deterrence theories are poorly specified theories about nonexistent decision makers operating in nonexistent environments.
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- The Rational Deterrence Debate: A Symposium
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- Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1989
References
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27 Stein (fn. 11).
28 Zagare (fn. 2, 1987), 1–7.
29 Technically, Zagare's analysis is based on a different interpretation of the meaning of two-by-two games. The numbers denote rates of payoff rather than single payoffs, with players moving around within the matrix.
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33 The Egyptian Minister of War, Shams al-Din Badran, estimated in May 1967 that Egyptian forces could handle military intervention on behalf of Israel by the Sixth Fleet; cited by Riad, Mahmoud, The Struggle for Peace in the Middle East (London:Quartet Books, 1981), 23Google Scholar. Is this, in Snidal and Achen's terms, psychopathological reasoning that falls outside the scope of a “rational theory of deterrence,” or evidence of systematic miscalculation that defeats the expectations of rational deterrence theory?
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35 Ibid., 554.
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48 Ibid., 226.
49 Moe makes this argument for rational models in general (ibid., 235).
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