Hostname: page-component-7479d7b7d-c9gpj Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-11T04:54:39.488Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Trade Impacts of Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2020

Tom Moerenhout*
Affiliation:
Columbia University, USA International Institute for Sustainable Development, Switzerland

Abstract

This article introduces the various trade impacts of fossil fuel subsidies. There are large direct and pass-through trade impacts. Direct trade impacts are found when producer subsidies affect the markets for crude energy products such as crude oil, natural gas, and coal. Direct trade impacts are also found when consumer subsidies decrease the input costs of various industries, whether they refine crude products into energy carriers (e.g. gasoline, electricity) or they use energy products to produce non-energy products (e.g. iron and steel, plastics). Pass-through trade impacts are found when upstream fossil fuel subsidies lead to a lower-cost product that is then used in downstream production processes. We find that markets for fossil fuels, refined energy products and energy-intensive products are enormous. In 2018, crude fossil fuel exports were worth at least US$1.3 trillion, petroleum product exports at least US$800 billion, and exports of energy-intensive goods at least US$1.3 trillion. Their trade volume and export value, as well as their competition density highlight that fossil fuel subsidies have a direct impact on who wins and who loses in terms of market share.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abouleinein, S, El-Laithy, H, and Kheir-El-Din, H (2009) The Impact of Phasing Out Subsidies of Petroleum Energy Products in Egypt. The Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, April 2009, 45.Google Scholar
Al Shehabi, OH (2013) Modelling Energy and Labour Linkages: A CGE Approach with an Application to Iran. Economic Modelling 35, 8898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.047.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Apicorp (2016) Energy Pricing Reform in the GCC: Long Road Ahead. Apicorp Energy Research 1(4): 4. http://apicorp-arabia.com/Research/EnergyReseach/2016/APICORP%20Energy%20Research%20-%20V01-N04-Jan-2016.pdf.Google Scholar
Burniaux, JM, Château, J, and Sauvage, J (2011) The Trade Effects of Phasing Out Fossil-Fuel Consumption Subsidies. OECD Trade and Environment Working Papers. www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/5kg6lql8wk7b-en.pdf?expires=1572368372&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=060611185646854D00E201C2F123F09B.Google Scholar
Clements, B, Jung, HS, and Gupta, S (2003) Real and Distributive Effects of Petroleum Price Liberalization: The Case of Indonesia. IMF. www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Real-and-Distributive-Effects-of-Petroleum-Price-Liberalization-The-Case-of-Indonesia-16882.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cockburn, J, Robichaud, V, and Tiberti, L (2018) Energy Subsidy Reform and Poverty in Arab Countries: A Comparative CGE-Microsimulation Analysis of Egypt and Jordan. Review of Income and Wealth 64(S1) S249S273. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
El Massnaoui, K and Verme, P (2015) An Evaluation of the 2014 Subsidy Reforms in Morocco and a Simulation of Further Reforms. 30 March, The World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/03/24220371/evaluation-2014-subsidy-reforms-morocco-simulation-further-reforms.Google Scholar
Ellis, J (2010) The Effects of Fossil-Fuel Subsidy Reform: A Review of Modelling and Empirical Studies. SSRN ELibrary, 1 March. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1572397.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flochel, T and Picarelli, N (2018) Transport and Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms. Presented at the ESMAP Knowledge Exchange Forum, Geneva, 30 October 2018. http://esmap.org/sites/default/files/KEF%20Geneva%202018/Session%205%20-%20Picarelli_Flochel.pdf.Google Scholar
Graff Zivin, JS and Neidell, MJ (2011) The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity. NBER Working Paper. The National Bureau of Economic Research. www.nber.org/papers/w17004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
He, J, Liu, H, and Salvo, A (2019) Severe Air Pollution and Labor Productivity: Evidence from Industrial Towns in China. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 11(1), 173201. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170286.Google Scholar
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017) Coal 2017: Analysis and Forecasts to 2022 – Executive Summary. OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
IEA (2018a) Key World Energy Statistics 2018. OECD/IEA, a 2018. https://webstore.iea.org/key-world-energy-statistics-2018.Google Scholar
IEA (2018b) World Energy Outlook 2018. OECD/IEA, 2018.Google Scholar
IEA (2019a) Oil Information Overview 2019. OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
IEA (2019b) Oil 2018: Analysis and Forecasts to 2023. OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
IEA (2019c) Natural Gas Information Overview 2019. OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
IEA (2019d) Gas Market Liberalisation Reform: Key Insights from International Experiences and Implications for China. OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
IEA (2019e) Coal Information Overview 2019. OECD/IEA.Google Scholar
International Trade Centre (ITC) (2019) International Trade Statistics 2001–2019. www.intracen.org/itc/market-info-tools/trade-statistics/.Google Scholar
Jensen, J and Tarr, D (2003) Trade, Exchange Rate, and Energy Pricing Reform in Iran: Potentially Large Efficiency Effects and Gains to the Poor. Review of Development Economics 7(4), 543562. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9361.00208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
KAPSARC (2016) Opportunities and Challenges in Reforming Energy Prices in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries. KAPSARC. www.kapsarc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/KS-1629-WB028A-Opportunities-and-Challenges-in-Reforming-Energy-Prices-in-GCC-Countries.pdf.Google Scholar
Moerenhout, T and Irschlinger, T (2020) Exploring the Trade Impacts of Fossil Fuel Subsidies. International Institute for Sustainable Development.Google Scholar
Manzoor, D, Shahmoradi, A, and Haqiqi, I (2012) An Analysis of Energy Price Reform: A CGE Approach. OPEC Energy Review 36(1), 3554. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2011.00200.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2019) OECD Analysis of Budgetary Support and Tax Expenditures. www.oecd.org/fossil-fuels/data/.Google Scholar
OECD (2019b) Measuring Distortions In International Markets: The Aluminium Value Chain. OECD Trade Policy Papers. www.oecd-ilibrary.org/trade/measuring-distortions-in-international-markets-the-aluminium-value-chain_c82911ab-enGoogle Scholar
Rentschler, J, Martin, K, and Morgan, B (2017) Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms and Their Impacts on Firms. Energy Policy 108, 617–623.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wesseh, PK and Lin, B (2016) Refined Oil Import Subsidies Removal in Ghana: A ‘Triple’ Win? Journal of Cleaner Production 139, 113121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Trade Organization (2004) United States – Subsidies on Upland Cotton: Report of the Panel. WT/DS267/R (8 September 2004).Google Scholar
Yusoff, NYM and Bekhet, HA (2016) Impacts of Energy Subsidy Reforms on the Industrial Energy Structures in the Malaysian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 6(1), 8897.Google Scholar