I am going to touch on three topics that bear heavily on the fortunes of Pacific countries: the so-called energy crisis, the economic prospects of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and neighboring countries, and the implications of Chairman Hua's presumed pragmatism. I find myself holding unusual views on all of them.

Until 1973 I thought there might be a shortage of energy in the 1980's because energy was so obviously being temporarily underpriced. Since 1973 I have believed there is more likely to be a glut of energy in the 1980's because energy is being temporarily overpriced.

The possibility that OPEC might be able to maintain its cartel has, admittedly and unhappily, been increased by President Carter's and Congress's energy policies. These policies seem to me (although I know many who disagree) to be a glum example of the way in which politicians’ misunderstandings now override economic logic and history's lessons.