Epidemic trends of SARS-CoV-2 associated with immunity, race, and viral mutations

The world has been plagued by complex waves of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics that vary from region to region. Here we compared the local viral genotypes with epidemiological information and revealed the molecular dynamics of the pandemic. A multifaceted analyses of the epidemic trends and their relationship to virus genotypes, regional herd immunity, population density, and race has shown that epidemic outcomes are affected by: (i) Increased fitness of the virus due to viral protein mutations; (ii) Immunity against previously prevalent subtypes that prevents or exacerbates COVID-19; (iii) Immune evasion due to viral mutations; (iv) Viral competition with coexisting subtypes; (v) Dense living environment; (vi) Racial and social disparities; (vii) Upper limit of viral mutations that enable natural selection. These findings will help develop effective countermeasures.