Carbon credits and the “Peter Pan” forests

Natural Climate Solutions have gained prominence as pivotal strategies for climate change mitigation, with tropical reforestation an important and cost-effective approach. However, despite significant reforestation commitments, the potential of natural forest re-growth remains underutilized, with second-growth forests, akin to the perpetual youth of the fictional character Peter Pan, repeatedly cleared, hindering their contribution to carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. We investigate the persistent challenges faced by regenerating second-growth tropical forests and discuss the need for novel carbon crediting approaches to incentivize their protection and restoration. Current carbon accounting frameworks, designed for afforestation and reforestation, overlook the unique characteristics of Peter Pan forests. We argue for a paradigm shift in carbon accounting that places Peter Pan forest intermediate between avoided conversion (REDD+) and reforestation (ARR). To ensure additionality we propose a nuanced statistical approach, combining satellite-derived time series with economic pressure indicators. This method aims to generate credible counterfactual scenarios for assessing carbon stock increases relative to those in the absence of carbon finance. Moreover, we highlight the socio-economic factors influencing second-growth forest persistence, emphasizing the need for integrated food production and forest restoration policies.