Appendix 3 Population Estimates
The estimates of total population and the population of adult males used in this book are based on a series of national taxation records that survive between 1327 and 1603. These consist of the 1327 lay subsidy, the 1377–81 poll taxes, the 1524–5 lay subsidies, and the 1563 and 1603 diocesan population returns, although the records do not survive for each return for all the case studies. In each case, the records only account for a varying proportion of the actual population of the communities surveyed, and thus various multipliers were applied to the numbers given in the documents to achieve estimated ranges of population. These multipliers are based on those found in relevant secondary literature.
Table a3.1 summarises the actual returns and multipliers applied, while the footnotes detail the sources of both the returns and the multipliers used. As a final set of caveats, it is vital to remember that these are very imprecise estimates of population, and likely reflect trends better than absolute levels of population. It is further important to remember that none of the returns used the manor as a basis for assessment, but rather the vill for the lay subsidies and poll tax, and the parish for the diocesan population returns. This means that these estimates are not necessarily related to the number of tenants, with inhabitants included who may not have held land in the manor, and non-resident manorial landholders excluded.
Table a3.1 Population estimates
| Manor | Date | Type (geographical unit) | Number of individuals | Method 1 | Minimum–maximum multiplier unit | Method 2 | Total population minimum–maximum | Method 3 | Minimum–maximum adult males |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horstead | 1327 |
| 51 taxpayers | Assume covers 25–33% of householdersFootnote 1 | 153–204 householders | Assume multiplier of 4.75 | 727–969 | Assume adult males 30% of populationFootnote 2 | 218–291 |
| 1379 |
| 96 listed (57 taxpayers) | – |
| Assume multiplier of 1.323–1.454Footnote 3 | 127–140 | – | 57 | |
| 1524 |
| 27 taxpayers | Assume covers 72–97% of menFootnote 4 |
| Assume multiplier of 3.33Footnote 5 | 94–125 | – | 28–38 | |
| 1603 |
| c.100 communicants (given as estimate)Footnote 7 | – | 100 communicants | Assume covers 50–65% of populationFootnote 8 | 154–200 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 46–60 | |
| Cratfield | 1327 |
| 33 taxpayers | Assume covers 25–33% of householders | 100–132 householders | Assume multiplier of 4.75 | 475–627 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 143–188 |
| 1525 |
| 51 taxpayers | Assume covers 72–97% of men | 53–71 men | Assume multiplier of 3.33 | 175–236 | – | 53–71 | |
| 1603 |
| 200 communicants | – | 200 communicants | Assume covers 50–65% of population | 308–400 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 167–217 | |
| Little Downham | 1327 |
| 31 taxpayers | Assume covers 25–33% of householders |
| Assume multiplier of 4.75 | 442–589 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 133–177 |
| 1377 |
| 267 taxpayers (with Littleport) | Assume ratio of taxpayers the same as 1524 lay subsidy (102:93)Footnote 9 |
| Assume multiplier of 1.323–1.454 | 185–204 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 56–61 | |
| 1524 |
| 102 taxpayers | Assume covers 72–97% of men |
| Assume multiplier of 3.33 | 350–472 | – | 105–142 | |
| 1563 |
| 80 householders | – |
| Assume multiplier of 4.75–5Footnote 10 | 380–400 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 114–120 | |
| Worfield | 1327 |
| 60 taxpayers | Assume covers 25–33% of householders |
| Assume multiplier of 4.75 | 855–1140 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 257–342 |
| 1524 |
| 112 taxpayers | Assume covers 72–97% of men |
| Assume multiplier of 3.33 | 384–518 | – | 115–156 | |
| 1563 |
| 134 householders | – |
| Assume multiplier of 4.75–5 | 637–670 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 191–201 | |
| Fordington | 1327 |
| 70 taxpayers | Assume covers 25–33% of householders | 212–280 householders | Assume multiplier of 4.75 | 1,008–1,330 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 302–339 |
| 1524 |
| 121 taxpayers | Assume covers 72–97% of men | 125–168 men | Assume multiplier of 3.33 | 415–560 | – | 125–168 | |
| 1603 |
| 361 communicants | – | 361 communicants | Assume covers 50–65% of population | 555–772 | Assume adult males 30% of population | 167–217 |
Sources: Cambridgeshire and the Isle of Ely: Lay Subsidy for the Year 1327, Names of the Tax-Payers in Every Parish, trans. J.J. Muskett and ed. C.H. Evelyn White (London, 1900); Poll Taxes, ed. Fenwick; Lay Subsidy Returns, ed. Sheail; Diocesan Population Returns, eds. Dyer and Palliser; Smith, Worfield; Farnhill, Guilds and the Parish Community; The Dorset Lay Subsidy Roll of 1327, ed. A.R. Rumble, Dorset Record Society, 6 (Dorchester, 1980); TNA, e179/149/7.
1 Following B.M.S. Campbell and K. Bartley, England on the Eve of the Black Death: an Atlas of Lay Lordship, Land and Wealth, 1300–49 (Manchester, 2006), 329.
2 Following B.M.S. Campbell, ‘The population of early Tudor England: a re-evaluation of the 1522 muster returns and 1524 and 1525 lay subsidies’, Journal of Historical Geography, 7 (1981), 145–54, at 152.
3 Following Poos, Rural Society, 299.
4 Following Campbell, ‘Population of early Tudor England’, 152.
5 Following Footnote ibid.
6 This excludes Stanninghall which was part of the civil but not ecclesiastical parish of Horstead: Diocesan Population Returns, eds. Dyer and Palliser, 411 n. 111.
7 Unfortunately, the census only states that the number of communicants were ‘the like nomber’ to Coltishall, where a number of 100 communicants is given. Therefore, these figures are very much estimates: Diocesan Population Returns, eds. Dyer and Palliser, 442 n. 112.
8 Following Tompkins, ‘Peasant society’, 190.
9 Unfortunately the returns of the Isle of Ely were given together in the tax (excluding the City of Ely), thus putting Downham and Littleport together. This methodology assumes population decline was similar in that in these neighbouring communities owing to their proximity. Pleasingly, the ratio between the 140 estimate for 1377 and the 31 taxpayers in 1327 of 1:4.52 is very close to that of 1:4.47 calculated for Cambridgeshire as a whole, suggesting a number that is at least plausible.
10 Following Tompkins, ‘Peasant society’, 190.
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