Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-hfldf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-03T23:47:49.512Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

6 - The Building of Eurasia’s Great Power Pyramids

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 November 2014

Henry E. Hale
Affiliation:
George Washington University, Washington DC
Get access

Summary

The political history of Eurasia since 1991 can be understood as a process in which the patronal networks described in the previous chapter, like building blocks, were formed, reformed, split, combined, arranged, and rearranged (or, in some cases, destroyed). To understand the patterns that eventually emerged in this process, it is crucial to keep in mind that they did not appear instantly or automatically. Instead, the Soviet collapse produced a situation of extreme institutional flux with all the economic and social turmoil one might expect to accompany it. Not only was it often unclear where the new loci of power would be, but it was not even clear what constituted power itself – either in the moment at hand or for the future. Old institutions that had once seemed permanent disappeared at the same time that new ones – both formal and informal – could appear and disappear like flashes in the pan. This applied to networks as well, so one makes a grave mistake assuming that any networks in the post-Soviet period were simply holdovers from the Soviet period. But even once networks were newly formed or revived with new meaning as described in the previous chapter, politicians’ expectations regarding their relative power remained highly uncertain in the initial post-Soviet period. Indeed, this was not something anyone there had experienced before. The post-Soviet political context was completely new, leaving both old and new networks and network entrepreneurs essentially to duke it out and gradually establish a stable set of expectations over time through a process of trial and error.

In this context of great initial uncertainty, presidentialist constitutions – through the focal and information effects described in Chapter 4 – worked in mutually reinforcing conjunction with prior power balances to produce Eurasia’s first post-Soviet single-pyramid systems almost everywhere by the end of the 1990s. Typically, as described in Chapter 5, the initial presidencies were created and occupied by the chairmen of Soviet republic parliaments, who by virtue of having won the USSR’s first competitive republic-level elections in 1990 tended to be either the most powerful patrons or “compromise” figures chosen to solidify power-sharing deals among coalitions.

Type
Chapter
Information
Patronal Politics
Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective
, pp. 123 - 177
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2014

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

North, Douglass C., Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance [New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990
Herron, Erik S., Elections and Democracy after Communism? (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009), p. 34
Palma, Giuseppe Di, To Craft Democracies: An Essay on Democratic Transition (Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1990)
Hale, Henry E., “Explaining Machine Politics in Russia’s Regions: Economy, Ethnicity, and Legacy,” Post-Soviet Affairs, v. 19, no. 3, July–September 2003, pp. 228–63Google Scholar
McFaul, Michael, “The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World,” World Politics, v. 54, no. 2, January 2002, pp. 212–44Google Scholar
Way, Lucan A., “Deer in Headlights: Incompetence and Weak Authoritarianism after the Cold War,” Slavic Review, v. 71, no. 3, Fall 2012, pp. 619–46Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven and Way, Lucan A., Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War [New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010
Fish, M. Steven, Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005)
Way, Lucan A., “Authoritarian State-Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine,” World Politics, v. 57, January 2005, pp. 231–61.Google Scholar
Derluguian, Georgi, Bourdieu’s Secret Admirer in the Caucasus: A World Systems Biography (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2005)
Jones, Stephen F., “Georgia: The Trauma of Statehood,” in Bremmer, Ian and Taras, Ray, eds., New States, New Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 505–43
Slider, Darrell, “Democratization in Georgia,” in Dawisha, Karen and Parrott, Bruce, eds., Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 156–98
Wheatley, Jonathan, Georgia from National Awakening to Rose Revolution: Delayed Transition in the Former Soviet Union (Burlington: Ashgate, 2005)
Cornell, Svante, Azerbaijan since Independence (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2011)
Hunter, Shireen T., “Azerbaijan: Searching for New Neighbors,” in Bremmer, Ian and Taras, Ray, eds., New States, New Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 437–72
Atkin, Muriel, “Tajikistan: Reform, Reaction, and Civil War,” in Ian Bremmer and Ray Taras, eds., New States, New Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997)
Schoeberlein-Engel, John, “Conflict in Tajikistan and Central Asia: The Myth of Ethnic Animosity,” Harvard Middle Eastern and Islamic Review, v. 1, no. 2, 1994, pp. 1–55Google Scholar
Tuncer-Kilavuz, Idil, Power, Networks and Violent Conflict in Central Asia: A Comparison of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (New York: Routledge, 2014)
Markowitz, Lawrence P., State Erosion: Unlootable Resources and Unruly Elites in Central Asia (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2013)
Kravchuk, Robert S., “The Quest for Balance: Regional Self-Government and Subnational Fiscal Policy in Ukraine,” in Kuzio, Taras, Kravchuk, Robert S., and D’Anieri, Paul, State and Institution-Building in Ukraine (New York: St. Martin’s, 1999), pp. 155–212
Wolczuk, Kataryna, The Moulding of Ukraine: The Constitutional Politics of State Formation (Budapest: CEU Press, 2001)
D’Anieri, Paul, Understanding Ukrainian Politics: Power, Politics, and Institutional Design (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2007)
Kas’ianov, Heorhii, Ukraiina 1991–2007: Narysy novitn’oii istorii (Kyiv: Nash Chas, 2008)
Kravchuk, Leonid, Maemo te, shcho maemo: spohady i rozdumy (Kyiv: Stolittia, 2002)
Matsuzato, Kimitaka, “All Kuchma’s Men: The Reshuffling of Ukrainian Governors and the Presidential Election of 1999,” Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, v. 42, no. 6, September 2001Google Scholar
Afanas’ev, Mikhail N., Klientelizm i Rossiiskaia Gosudarstvennost’ (Moscow: Moscow Public Science Foundation, 1997)
Holmes, Stephen, “Back to the Drawing Board: An Argument for Constitutional Postponement in Eastern Europe,” East European Constitutional Review, v. 2, no. 1, Winter 1993, pp. 21–5Google Scholar
Colton, Timothy and Skach, Cindy, “The Predicament of Semi-Presidentialism,” in Stepan, Alfred, ed., Democracies in Danger (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009)
Kolmakov, Sergei, “The Role of Financial Industrial Conglomerates in Russian Political Parties,” Russia Watch (Harvard University), no. 9, January 2003, p. 16.Google Scholar
Johnson, Juliet, A Fistful of Rubles: The Rise and Fall of the Russian Banking System (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2000)
Treisman, Daniel S., “How Yeltsin Won,” Foreign Affairs, v. 75, no. 5, September–October 1996, pp. 64–77Google Scholar
Suny, Ronald Grigor, “Elite Transformation in Late-Soviet and Post-Soviet Transcaucasia, or What Happens When the Ruling Class Can’t Rule?” in Colton, Timothy J. and Tucker, Robert C., eds., Patterns in Post-Soviet Leadership (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1995), pp. 141–68
Dudwick, Nora, “Political Transformations in Postcommunist Armenia: Images and Realities,” in Dawisha, Karen and Parrott, Bruce, eds., Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 69–109
Huskey, Eugene, “Kyrgyzstan: The Fate of Political Liberalization,” in Dawisha, Karen and Parrott, Bruce, eds., Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 242–76,
Chotonov, Usenaly, Suverennyi Kyrgyzstan: vybor istoricheskogo puti (Bishkek: Kyrgyzstan, 1995)
Juraev, Shairbek, “Kyrgyz Democracy? The Tulip Revolution and Beyond,” Central Asian Survey, v. 27, nos. 3–4, September 2008, pp. 337–47Google Scholar
Anderson, John, Kyrgyzstan: Central Asia’s Island of Democracy? (Amsterdam: Harwood, 1999) p. 41
Iskakova, Gulnara, Vybory i demokratiia v Kyrgyzstane: Konstitutsionnyi dizain prezidentsko-parlamentskikh otnoshenii (Bishkek: Biyiktik, 2003), pp. 417–19
McMann, Kelly M., Economic Autonomy and Democracy: Hybrid Regimes in Russia and Kyrgyzstan (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006)
McGlinchey, Eric, Chaos, Violence, Dynasty: Politics and Islam in Central Asia (Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh University Press, 2011)
Luong, Pauline Jones, “Politics in the Periphery: Competing Views of Central Asian States and Societies,” in Luong, Jones, ed., The Transformation of Central Asia: States and Societies from Soviet Rule to Independence (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2003)
Cummings, Sally N., Kazakhstan: Power and the Elite (London: I. B. Tauris, 2005), pp. 24–5
Olcott, Martha Brill, Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment, 2002)
Olcott, Martha Brill, “Democratization and the Growth of Political Participation in Kazakhstan,” in Dawisha, Karen and Parrott, Bruce, eds., Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 201–41
Silitski, Vitali, “Explaining Post-Communist Authoritarianism in Belarus,” in Korosteleva, Elena, Lawson, Colin W., and Marsh, Rosalind J., eds., Contemporary Belarus: Between Democracy and Dictatorship (New York: RoutledgeCurzon, 2003), pp. 36–52
Fritz, Verena, State-Building: A Comparative Study of Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus, and Russia (Budapest: Central European University Press, 2007), p. 212
Zaprudnik, Jan and Urban, Michael, “Belarus: From Statehood to Empire?” in Bremmer, Ian and Taras, Ray, eds., New States, New Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 276–315
Medvedev, Roy, Aleksandr Lukashenko: Kontury Belorusskoi modeli (Moscow: BBPG, 2010), p. 85
Kebich, Viacheslav, Iskushenie vlast’iu: Iz zhizni prem’er-ministra (Minsk: Paradoks, 2008)
Matsuzato, Kimitaka, “A Populist Island in an Ocean of Clan Politics: The Lukashenka Regime as an Exception among CIS Countries,” Europe-Asia Studies, v. 56, no. 2, March 2004, pp. 235–61, p. 243;Google Scholar
Rovdo, Vladimir, “Spetsifika i evoliutsiia politicheskogo rezhima Respubliki Belarus’,” Acta Slavica Iaponica, v. 21, 2004, pp. 144–80.Google Scholar
Belova-Gille, Olga, “Difficulties of Elite Formation in Belarus after 1991,” in Korosteleva, Elena, Lawson, Colin W., and Marsh, Rosalind J., eds., Contemporary Belarus: Between Democracy and Dictatorship (New York: RoutledgeCurzon, 2003), pp. 53–67
Wilson, Andrew, Belarus: The Last Dictatorship in Europe (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2011)
White, Stephen and Korosteleva, Elena, “Lukashenko and the Postcommunist Presidency,” in White, Stephen, Korosteleva, Elena, and Lowehardt, John, eds., Postcommunist Belarus (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2005), pp. 59–78
Chudakov, M. F., Vashkevich, A. E., Alfer, S. A., Plisko, M. K., and Dobrovol’skii, A. O., Politicheskie partii: Belarus’ i sovremennyi mir, 2nd ed. (Minsk: Tesei, 2005), pp. 174–5
Gel’man, Vladimir Ia., “Uroki ukrainskogo,” Polis, no. 1 (84), February 2005, pp. 36–49Google Scholar
Kuzio, Taras, “Democratic Breakthroughs and Revolutions in Five Postcommunist Countries: Comparative Perspectives on the Fourth Wave,” Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, v. 16, no. 1, Winter 2008, pp. 97–109Google Scholar
Colton, Timothy J., “An Aligning Election and the Ukrainian Political Community,” East European Politics & Societies, v. 25, no. 1, February 2011, pp. 4–27Google Scholar
Darden, Keith, Resisting Occupation: Mass Literacy and the Creation of Durable National Loyalties (New York: Cambridge University Press, forthcoming)
Luong, Pauline Jones, Institutional Change and Political Continuity in Post-Soviet Central Asia (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002)
Ryabakov, Maxim, “The North-South Cleavage and Political Support in Kyrgyzstan,” Central Asian Survey, v. 27, nos. 3–4, September 2008, pp. 301–16Google Scholar
Wise, Charles R. and Pigenko, Volodymyr, “The Separation of Powers Puzzle in Ukraine: Sorting Out Responsibilities and Relationships between President, Parliament, and the Prime Minister,” in Kuzio, Taras, Kravchuk, Robert S., and D’Anieri, Paul, eds., State and Institution Building in Ukraine (New York: St. Martin’s, 1999), pp. 25–55
Darden, Keith, “The Integrity of Corrupt States: Graft as an Informal State Institution,” Politics & Society, v. 36, no. 1, March 2008, pp. 35–60.Google Scholar
Darden, Keith, “Blackmail as a Tool of State Domination: Ukraine under Kuchma,” East European Constitutional Review, v. 10, nos. 2–3, Spring/Summer 2001, pp. 67–71Google Scholar
Arel, Dominique, “Kuchmagate and the Demise of Kuchma’s ‘Geopolitical Bluff,’” East European Constitutional Review, v. 10, nos. 2–3, Spring/Summer 2001, pp. 54–9Google Scholar
Wilson, Andrew, Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2005)
Bondarenko, Kost’, Leonid Kuchma: Portret na fone epokhi (Kharkiv: Folio, 2007), p. 280
Kuzio, Taras, “Ukraine: Muddling Along,” in Wolchik, Sharon L. and Curry, Jane L., eds., Central and East European Politics: From Communism to Democracy (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2008), pp. 339–67
Bloom, Stephen, “Which Minority Is Appeased? Coalition Potential and Redistribution in Latvia and Ukraine,” Europe-Asia Studies, v. 60, no. 9, November 2008, pp. 1575–600Google Scholar
Suny, Ronald Grigor, “On the Road to Independence: Cultural Cohesion and Ethnic Revival in a Multinational Society,” in Suny, Ronald Grigor, ed., Transcaucasia, Nationalism, and Social Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996)
Aliev, Gafar, Osnovopolozhnik, spasatel’ i sozidatel’ sovremennogo Azerbaidzhana (Baku: Shams, 2008), p. 110
Mehdiyev, Remiz, Azerbaijan – 2003–2008: Thinking about Time (Baku: Sharq-Qarb, 2010), p. 159
Alieva, Leila, “Azerbaijan’s Frustrating Elections,” Journal of Democracy, v. 17, no. 2, April 2006, pp. 147–60Google Scholar
Mitchell, Lincoln, Uncertain Democracy: U.S. Foreign Policy and Georgia’s Rose Revolution (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2009)
Areshidze, Irakly, Democracy and Autocracy in Eurasia: Georgia in Transition (East Lansing: Michigan State University Press, 2007), p. 41
Akbarzadeh, Shahram, “Geopolitics versus Democracy in Tajikistan,” Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, v. 14, no. 4, Fall 2006, pp. 563–78Google Scholar
Collins, Kathleen, Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia(New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005)
Atkin, Muriel, “Thwarted Democratization in Tajikistan,” in Dawisha, Karen and Parrott, Bruce, eds., Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 277–311
Driscoll, Jesse, “Commitment Problems or Bidding Wars? Rebel Fragmentation as Peace Building,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, v. 56, no. 1, February 2012, pp. 118–49Google Scholar
Lynch, Dov, “De Facto ‘States’ around the Black Sea: The Importance of Fear,” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, v. 7, no. 3, September 2007, pp. 483–96Google Scholar
Anchabadze, Yu. D. and Argun, Yu. G., Abkhazy (Moscow: Nauka, 2007)
King, Charles, “The Benefits of Ethnic War: Understanding Eurasia’s Unrecognized States,” World Politics, v. 53, no. 4, July 2001Google Scholar
Babilunga, N. V., Beril, S. I., Bomeshko, B. G., Galinskii, I. N., Guboglo, E. M., Okushko, V. R., and Shornikov, P. M., Fenomen Pridniestrov’ia, 2nd ed. (Tiraspol: RIO PGU, 2003), p. 21
Protsyk, Oleh, “Representation and Democracy in Eurasia’s Unrecognized States: The Case of Transnistria,” Post-Soviet Affairs, v. 25, no. 3, 2009, pp. 257–81Google Scholar
Astourian, Stephan, “Killings in the Armenian Parliament: Coup d’Etat, Political Conspiracy, or Destructive Rage?Contemporary Caucasus Newsletter, no. 9, Spring 2000, pp. 1–5Google Scholar
Cornell, Svante E., “Autonomy as a Source of Conflict: Caucasian Conflicts in Theoretical Perspective,” World Politics, v. 54, no. 2, January 2002, pp. 245–76Google Scholar
Chibirov, Liudvig A., O vremeni, o liudiakh, o sebe (zapiski Pervogo Prezidenta Respubliki Iuzhnaiia Osetiia) (Vladikavkaz: Ir, 2004), p. 142
Sanakoev, Dmitrii, former South Ossetia prime minister, Ostaius’ optimistom – ia Osetinskii patriot! (Tbilisi, 2008)
Horak, Slavomir, “The Elite in Post-Soviet and Post-Niyazow Turkmenistan: Does Political Culture Form a Leader?Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, v. 20, no. 4, Fall 2012, pp. 371–85Google Scholar
Ilkhamov, Alisher, “The Limits of Centralization: Regional Challenges in Uzbekistan,” in Luong, Pauline Jones, ed., The Transformation of Central Asia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004)
Peyrouse, Sebastien, Turkmenistan: Strategies of Power, Dilemmas of Development (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2011)
Ochs, Michael, “Turkmenistan: The Quest for Stability and Control,” in Dawisha, Karen and Parrott, Bruce, eds., Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 312–59
Nissman, David, “Turkmenistan: Just like Old Times,” in Bremmer, Ian and Taras, Ray, eds., New States, New Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 634–53
Horak, Slavomir, “Changes in the Political Elite in Post-Soviet Turkmenistan,” China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, v. 8, no. 3, 2010, pp. 27–46Google Scholar
Carlisle, Donald, “Islom Karimov and Uzbekistan: Back to the Future?” in Timothy J. Colton and Robert C. Tucker, eds., Patterns in Post-Soviet Leadership (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1995), pp. 191–216, pp. 196, 200
Snegur, Mircea and Volkov, Eduard, Otkrovennye dialogi (Chisinau: Draghistea, 2007), pp. 138–9
Crowther, William, “Moldova: Caught between Nation and Empire,” in Ian Bremmer and Ray Taras, eds., New States New Politics: Building the Post-Soviet Nations (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997)
Luchinskii, Petr, Moldova i Moldavane (Chisinau: Cartea Moldovei, 2007)
Hough, Jerry F., “Institutional Rules and Party Formation,” in Colton, Timothy J. and Hough, , eds., Growing Pains: Russian Democracy and the Election of 1993 (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1998), pp. 37–74
Lijphart, Arend, “Constitutional Choices for New Democracies,” Journal of Democracy, v. 2, no. 1, Winter 1991, pp. 72–84Google Scholar
Kirmikchi, V., “Parlament skazal svoe slovo. A chto predprimet prezident?Nezavisimaia Moldova, August 3, 2000, p. 2Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×