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2 - Theory of Tests, p-Values, and Confidence Intervals

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 April 2022

Michael P. Fay
Affiliation:
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Erica H. Brittain
Affiliation:
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
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Summary

This chapter defines statistical hypothesis tests mathematically. Those tests assume two sets of probability models, called the null and alternative hypotheses. A decision rule is a function that depends on the data and a specified ?-level and determines whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. We define concepts related to properties of hypothesis tests such as Type I and II error rates, validity, size, power, invariance, and robustness. The definitions are general but are explained with examples such as testing a binomial parameter, or Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney tests. P-values are defined as the smallest ?-level for observed data for which we would reject the null at that level and all larger levels. Confidence sets and confidence intervals are defined in relation to a series of hypothesis tests with changing null hypotheses. Compatibility between p-value functions and confidence intervals is defined, and an example with Fisher’s exact test shows that compatibility is not always present for some common tests.

Type
Chapter
Information
Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Context
Reproducibility, Inference, and Science
, pp. 8 - 22
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

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