Recently, two independent research teams reported evidence of infection with SARS-like coronaviruses in insectivorous horseshoe bats (genus Rhinolophus) in China [1, 2]. SARS emerged in China in 2002, and eventually infected over 8000 people around the world, killing about 10% of them. Early epidemiological studies suggested that the human disease may have originated in Chinese live-animal food markets, and the hunt for a source of the virus quickly identified apparently healthy Himalayan palm civets (Paguma larvata) as prime suspects [3]. Other studies, however, failed to find any evidence of widespread infection in civets [4] or a variety of other animals traditionally used as food in China. Rather, palm civets, like human beings, seem to be only accidental hosts of the virus, becoming infected, again like people, when mixed with other species in markets. More structured hunts for the reservoir continued, although not before thousands of palm civets had been slaughtered.

We systematically reviewed the current understanding of human population immunity against SARS-CoV in different groups, settings and geography. Our meta-analysis, which included all identified studies except those on wild animal handlers, yielded an overall seroprevalence of 0·10% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·02–0·18]. Health-care workers and others who had close contact with SARS patients had a slightly higher degree of seroconversion (0·23%, 95% CI 0·02–0·45) compared to healthy blood donors, others from the general community or non-SARS patients recruited from the health-care setting (0·16%, 95% CI 0–0·37). When analysed by the two broad classes of testing procedures, it is clear that serial confirmatory test protocols resulted in a much lower estimate (0·050%, 95% CI 0–0·15) than single test protocols (0·20%, 95% CI 0·06–0·34). Potential epidemiological and laboratory pitfalls are also discussed as they may give rise to false or inconsistent results in measuring the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV.

Systematic national surveillance of outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease (IID) was introduced in England and Wales in 1992 to provide comprehensive information on causative organisms, sources or vehicles of infection and modes of transmission. We compared information from this system with that published in the peer-reviewed literature between 1 January 1992 and 31 January 2003 to assess the potential effect of publication bias on food-safety policy. During the study period 1763 foodborne outbreaks of IID were reported to national surveillance. Fifty-five were published in the peer-reviewed literature. The peer-reviewed literature overestimated the impacts of milk/milk products, miscellaneous foods (e.g. sandwiches) and desserts and underestimated those of poultry, fish and shellfish, red meat/meat products and eggs/egg products. Without systematic surveillance, knowledge of causative organisms, sources or vehicles of infection and modes of transmission, as gleaned from the peer-reviewed literature, would potentially distort food-safety policy.

Helicobacter pylori infection plays a role in the development of chronic gastritis, peptic ulcer and gastric cancer, yet the route of transmission into susceptible hosts remains unknown. Studies employing microbiological techniques have demonstrated that H. pylori has the ability to survive when introduced into water and that H. pylori is present in water and other environmental samples all over the world. Epidemiological studies have shown that water source and exposures related to water supply, including factors related to sewage disposal and exposure to animals, are risk factors for infection. This review describes the microbiological and epidemiological evidence for, and proposes a model of, waterborne H. pylori transmission outlining important features in the transmission cycle. In the model, humans and animals shed the bacteria in their faeces and the mechanisms for entry into water, and for survival, ingestion and infection are dependent upon a range of environmental influences. Verification of the proposed model pathways has important implications for public-health prevention strategies.

In 1981, R. Edgar Hope-Simpson proposed that a ‘seasonal stimulus’ intimately associated with solar radiation explained the remarkable seasonality of epidemic influenza. Solar radiation triggers robust seasonal vitamin D production in the skin; vitamin D deficiency is common in the winter, and activated vitamin D, 1,25(OH)2D, a steroid hormone, has profound effects on human immunity. 1,25(OH)2D acts as an immune system modulator, preventing excessive expression of inflammatory cytokines and increasing the ‘oxidative burst’ potential of macrophages. Perhaps most importantly, it dramatically stimulates the expression of potent anti-microbial peptides, which exist in neutrophils, monocytes, natural killer cells, and in epithelial cells lining the respiratory tract where they play a major role in protecting the lung from infection. Volunteers inoculated with live attenuated influenza virus are more likely to develop fever and serological evidence of an immune response in the winter. Vitamin D deficiency predisposes children to respiratory infections. Ultraviolet radiation (either from artificial sources or from sunlight) reduces the incidence of viral respiratory infections, as does cod liver oil (which contains vitamin D). An interventional study showed that vitamin D reduces the incidence of respiratory infections in children. We conclude that vitamin D, or lack of it, may be Hope-Simpson's ‘seasonal stimulus’.

This review focuses on current and future prevention of invasive cervical cancer (ICC), the second most common cancer among women worldwide. Implementation of population-based cytological screening programmes, using the ‘Pap’ smear to detect pre-cancerous lesions in the cervix, has resulted in substantial declines in mortality and morbidity from ICC in North America and some European countries. However, cases of, and deaths from, ICC continue to occur. Primary prevention of infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types, the central causal factor of ICC, could further reduce incidence of and mortality from ICC. This is particularly the case in developing countries, which bear 80% of the burden of ICC, and where effective Pap screening programmes are extremely difficult to implement. Very promising results from several trials of synthetic HPV type-specific monovalent (HPV 16) and bivalent (HPV 16 and 18) vaccines have recently been published, showing high efficacy against type-specific persistent HPV infection and development of type-specific pre-cancerous lesions. Large-scale phase III trials of a number of such vaccine candidates are currently underway, and there is real hope that an effective vaccine capable of protecting against infection with HPV types 16 and 18 (which together account for ∼70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide), and thereby of preventing development of a very significant proportion of cases of ICC, could be available within the next 2 years.

The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18·18-fold (95% confidence interval 5·6–58·8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2·8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.

Fresh produce is an important part of a healthy diet and is consumed in greater quantity in the United States than ever before. Consumption of cantaloupe has recently been associated with several large outbreaks of infections in North America, highlighting the need for a better understanding of practices and processes that may contribute to contamination. We reviewed all cantaloupe-associated outbreaks that were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and published in the literature. Twenty-three outbreaks occurred between 1984 and 2002; 1434 people became ill, 42 were hospitalized, and two died in these outbreaks. Aetiological agents in the outbreaks included five serotypes of Salmonella enterica, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and norovirus. We reviewed processes contributing to cantaloupe contamination, conditions affecting survival and growth of bacterial pathogens on melons, and potential methods for sanitization. For maximum safety, industry, federal, and international partners must collaborate to ensure that appropriate interventions are in place to minimize the risk of contamination and prevent the growth of pathogens during cantaloupe production, processing, storage, and preparation.

Rotaviruses are a major cause of hospitalizations for acute gastroenteritis in developed countries. This review shows the burden of rotavirus disease in <5-year-old children in Europe. An estimated 72000–77000 hospitalizations for community-acquired rotavirus disease occur annually in the 23 million under-fives living in the European Union (EU-25), with a median cost of €1417 per case. Annual hospitalization incidence rates range from 0·3 to 11·9/1000 children <5 years old (median 3/1000). The median proportion of hospital-acquired rotavirus disease among all cases of hospitalization for rotavirus disease is estimated to be 21%. Countries of the EU-25 require information on the burden of rotavirus disease to support introduction of rotavirus vaccines. Data on cases treated at home, medical visits, and emergency wards as well as rotavirus-associated deaths are limited. To fully evaluate the impact and effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination programmes in Europe, additional epidemiological studies will be critical and desirable.

We reviewed the epidemiological and microbiological characteristics of 89 reported outbreaks of waterborne infectious intestinal disease affecting 4321 people in England and Wales over the period 1992–2003. Public water supplies were implicated in 24 outbreaks (27%), private water supplies in 25 (28%), swimming pools in 35 (39%) and other sources in five outbreaks (6%). Cryptosporidium was implicated in 69% of outbreaks, Campylobacter sp. in 14%, Giardia in 2%, E. coli O157 in 3% and Astrovirus in 1%. From 2000, there was a consistent decline in the number of outbreaks of waterborne disease associated with public water supplies. The incidence rate of outbreaks in recipients of private water supplies may be as high as 35 times the rate in those receiving public water supplies (1830 vs. 53 per million population). Private water suppliers need to be aware of the importance of adequate treatment and the prevention of faecal contamination of storage water. Swimming-pool operators need to ensure chlorination and in particular adequate filtration measures are in place.

A national UK surveillance system currently uses data from a health helpline (NHS Direct) in an attempt to provide early warning of a bio-terrorist attack, or an outbreak caused by a more common infection. To test this syndromic surveillance system we superimposed data from a historical outbreak of cryptosporidiosis onto a statistical model of NHS Direct call data. We modelled whether calls about diarrhoea (a proxy for cryptosporidiosis) exceeded a statistical threshold, thus alerting the surveillance team to the outbreak. On the date that the public health team were first notified of the outbreak our model predicted a 4% chance of detection when we assumed that one-twentieth of cryptosporidiosis cases telephoned the helpline. This rose to a 72% chance when we assumed nine-tenths of cases telephoned. The NHS Direct surveillance system is currently unlikely to detect an event similar to the cryptosporidiosis outbreak used here and may be most suited to detecting more widespread rises in syndromes in the community, as previously demonstrated. However, the expected rise in NHS Direct call rates, should improve early warning of outbreaks using call data.

Helicobacter pylori is transmitted within households and high concordance is observed among siblings. To better understand the contributions of close interpersonal contact and family relatedness to transmission, we compared concordance of H. pylori infection among 241 sibling and non-sibling children aged 2–18 years in 68, predominantly low-income, Hispanic households with at least two nuclear families. Prevalence of H. pylori infection was 24%. Compared to children with no infected siblings or non-siblings and adjusting for age, odds of H. pylori infection were 1·2 (95% CI 0·52–2·9), 3·2 (95% CI 1·14–9·1), and 9·4 (95% CI 3·1–28·5) for children residing with at least one infected non-sibling, one infected sibling, and with at least one infected sibling and non-sibling, respectively. The study further implicates intersibling transmission as a pathway for H. pylori infection in childhood. In addition, living with a non-sibling in extended-family homes may contribute to infection risk but only in households with prevalent H. pylori infection within all family groups.

Routine surveillance data underestimate incidence of foodborne gastrointestinal (FGI) illness and provide little information on illness related to travel. We analysed data from the Welsh Health Survey to estimate population incidence, and to examine risk factors for FGI and factors associated with consulting a doctor. Reported frequency of any FGI in the 3 months before interview was 20·0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 19·5–20·4; equivalent to 0·8 episodes per person-year], and for travel-related FGI was 1·6% (95% CI 1·5–1·8). In the final model, sex, age group, marital status, self-reported health, long-term illness, smoking and alcohol consumption were all independent predictors of FGI. People who consulted a doctor were likely to be older, in poorer health, taking regular medication, or to report mental illness. FGI is common but risk factors for illness and consultation differ and impressions of the epidemiology of the disease based on surveillance data are therefore distorted.

The risk for a pathogen to cross the species barrier depends on the rate of efficient contacts between the species. However, contact rates between species have rarely been estimated from observations. Here we estimate contact rates and exposure of chamois Rupicapra rupicapra and Alpine ibex Capra ibex exposed to domestic pasteurellosis and brucellosis carried by sheep or cattle herds summering in mountain pastures. We use field observation data on animal positions treated in a geographic information system (GIS). Comparing 10 pastures, we show that the management of domestic herds influences the risk of inter-species transmission. Exposure to direct transmission of pasteurellosis is high when herds are not guarded nor enclosed, whereas exposure to indirect transmission of brucellosis is increased on epidemiological dangerous points such as salt deposits. Our preliminary results need further investigation, but they underline the importance of both herd management and pathogen transmission mode when the aim is to reduce the risk of contamination of wild populations by a pathogen associated with domestic pathogens.

A vaccination programme offering hepatitis B (HBV) vaccine at reception into prison has been introduced into selected prisons in England and Wales. Over the coming years it is anticipated this vaccination programme will be extended. A model has been developed to assess the potential impact of the programme on the vaccination coverage of prisoners, ex-prisoners, and injecting drug users (IDUs). Under a range of coverage scenarios, the model predicts the change over time in the vaccination status of new entrants to prison, current prisoners and IDUs in the community. The model predicts that at baseline in 2012 57% of the IDU population will be vaccinated with up to 72% being vaccinated depending on the vaccination scenario implemented. These results are sensitive to the size of the IDU population in England and Wales and the average time served by an IDU during each prison visit. IDUs that do not receive HBV vaccine in the community are at increased risk from HBV infection. The HBV vaccination programme in prisons is an effective way of vaccinating this hard-to-reach population although vaccination coverage on prison reception must be increased to achieve this.

Since 2002, the burden of norovirus (NoV) infection in Ireland has increased. Outbreaks in institutional settings are the most common causing widespread disruption to health service delivery. This is the first national study of NoV in the Republic of Ireland and its aim was to identify the major NoV strains circulating in Ireland over a 13-month period between November 2003 and November 2004, inclusive. A prospective study screened faecal samples (n=478) for NoV RNA. Positive samples (n=116) were further analysed by a second PCR, targeted to the orf1/orf2 junction of the virus. Phylogenetic analysis was based on sequence alignments of this domain. GII/4 viruses represented 92·2% of sequences, 2·7% were GII/2, GII/3 and GGIIB cluster-like strains. The remaining 5·2% were of GI origin. NoV was detectable throughout the study period, although two peaks of infection were observed. The majority of infections were caused by a range of closely related GII/4 NoV strains.

Despite the importance of lower respiratory-tract infection (LRI) in causing hospitalizations in elderly patients ([ges ]65 years of age) and recent advances in vaccine development, a complete picture of the causative organisms is not available. All hospital discharge diagnoses (ICD-10 code) for LRI in elderly patients in England during 1995–1998 were reviewed. Using known seasonality in potential causative agents of LRI, the contribution of different respiratory pathogens to hospitalizations coded as ‘unspecified LRI’ was estimated by multiple linear regression analysis. Ninety-seven per cent of 551633 LRI-associated diagnoses had no specific organism recorded. From the statistical model the estimated proportions of admissions attributable to different pathogens were applied to calculate estimated hospitalization rates: 93·9 hospitalizations/10000 population aged [ges ]65 years due to S. pneumoniae, 22·9 to influenza virus, 22·3 to H. influenzae, 17·0 to whooping cough, and 12·8 to respiratory syncytial virus. There is enormous potential to improve health using existing vaccines and those under development.

Helicobacter pylori prevalence is elevated in German submarine crews and in United States Navy (USN) surface fleet personnel, but H. pylori prevalence in USN submariners was unknown. The goal of the study was to determine the prevalence of H. pylori in the crews of USN nuclear submarines compared to other military personnel and to the general US population. The presence of H. pylori IgG antibodies was determined in serum samples using a commercial ELISA. Only 47 out of 451 submariners (9·4%) were H. pylori positive, which is similar to that of the US general population with a similar level of education. In contrast, H. pylori prevalence is significantly higher in US Army recruits (26%), USN surface fleet personnel (25%), and German diesel submariners (38%). These data demonstrate that submarine service (and by inference activity requiring isolation and close contact, per se) is not a risk factor for H. pylori infection.

Although mixing patterns are crucial in dynamic transmission models of close contact infections, they are largely estimated by intuition. Using a convenience sample (n=73), we tested self-evaluation and prospective diary surveys with a web-based interface, in order to obtain social contact data. The number of recorded contacts was significantly (P<0·01) greater on workdays (18·1) vs. weekend days (12·3) for conversations, and vice versa for touching (5·4 and 7·2 respectively). Mixing was highly assortative with age for both (adults contacting other adults vs. 0- to 5-year-olds, odds ratio 8·9–10·8). Respondents shared a closed environment significantly more often with >20 other adults than with >20 children. The difference in number of contacts per day was non-significant between self-evaluation and diary (P=0·619 for conversations, P=0·125 for touching). We conclude that self-evaluation could yield similar results to diary surveys for general or very recent mixing information. More detailed data could be collected by diary, at little effort to respondents.

More people with hepatitis C virus pass through incarcerated settings each year than any other venue. The goal of this study was to assess inmates' attitudes towards hepatitis C testing and treatment while incarcerated. We interviewed 153 male and female inmates at the Rhode Island Department of Corrections (RIDOC). Ninety-one per cent of inmates said they would agree to be tested for hepatitis C and 95% said that they would be willing to be treated for hepatitis C while incarcerated. Thirty-three per cent perceived themselves to be at risk for hepatitis C. Inmates were very interested in hepatitis C testing and, if indicated treatment. Inmates' attitudes towards hepatitis C testing and treatment do not pose a major obstacle to implementing comprehensive hepatitis C screening and treatment programme in correctional settings.