So far I have studied only cases in which ethnic conflict did murderously escalate. Such sampling on the dependent variable might give a biased as well as an overly pessimistic impression, for many serious ethnic tensions exist but seem to get successfully defused. There are bursts of ethnic violence in which trouble explodes but then seems to die away and communities are spared mass murder. We must also study such cases to see what the differences are between them and cases of mass murder. The large countries of India and Indonesia can serve as “laboratories.” Both contain ethnic and religious tensions that explode at widely varying levels of severity. Both countries see recurrent violence, but most of it takes the less serious form of a riot cycle. Yet in a few instances there is escalation into mass murder. Can we explain these varied tensions and outcomes in terms of my ethnic theses? After examining the two countries, I will contrast them to my earlier worst-outcome cases to locate more precisely how trouble either escalates or gets defused. Figure 16.1 will sum up my conclusions, in effect rounding out my general explanation of ethnic cleansing.

INDIA SINCE INDEPENDENCE

India's population of 1 billion people is extremely multiethnic. No one knows how many ethnic groups there are, but they are so numerous that no one could rule the country merely by mobilizing ethnic loyalties. Localities can be split by communal ethnic disputes, but not the nation as a whole.