Genocide requires numbers and intentionality. We don't know the exact number of Armenians killed in the years following 1915 – or even the number living in Turkey. 1.2–1.4 million killed might be a reasonable guess for 1915–16. But sporadic massacres resumed when British and French occupation forces left, accounting for thousands more. Perhaps two-thirds of the Armenians died altogether. Many survived by escaping abroad, so only about 10 percent of the Armenians living in Turkey in 1914 remained in the country in 1922 – the most successful murderous cleansing achieved in the 20th century. Far more men than women and children were killed. Of the 180,000 surviving Armenians in the Deir-Zor camp in May 1916, only 10 percent were men (most being elderly), 30 percent were women, and 60 percent were children (Kévorkian, 1998: 224). But since men, women, and children were all killed in very large numbers, and since many surviving women and children were forcibly assimilated into Muslim identities, this was an attempt to wipe out the Armenian nation. The word genocide did not yet exist. But the numbers matched the deed.

But was it intentional? Was it planned by the government in advance? Most writers say it was (e.g., Dadrian, 1995; Melson, 1992). There are a few disseuters (Adanir, 2001; Suny, 1998). I take the latter view: though eventually there was organization and planning, this emerged erratically out of sudden responses to unexpected crises.