The Erosion of the Postwar System

The Federal Republic's foreign policy has based itself upon three given factors: first, Russian hegemony over the east of Europe, including East Germany; second, the American “world” system, encompassing Western Europe, Japan, and most of the old colonial spheres; and finally, a Western European bloc within the American system. In each case, the Germans have always accommodated, often contributed, but never challenged. And, as an apparent compensation, they have prospered as never before in their history. What are the chances for changes in these given factors? What would be the likely consequences for Germany?

More than any other major nation, today's Germany reflects the international order of the postwar period. A divided Germany in a divided Europe is the direct creation of a bipolar world. Developments that lead away from that bipolarity could, of course, change significantly the possibilities open to German policy. But although experts have been predicting the end of bipolarity for a long time, it still persists in many essentials. In several respects, detente has actually stabilized bipolarity. In effect, the superpowers have made common cause in preserving the outlines of the postwar status quo, in Europe particularly. But the collapse of detente would most likely reinforce bipolarity even further. Although a renewed Cold War could conceivably allow one superpower to drive the other out of Europe, more probably, in a nuclear world, a new global confrontation would merely reinforce the superpowers in their respective European spheres, and most especially in their respective Germanies. Hence, the bipolar system is unlikely to end as a result of one superpower's victory over the other.