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Chapter 18 - Conclusions: How Can Developing Countries Implement an Inclusive-Growth and Full-Employment Strategy?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 September 2020

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Summary

For, as a matter of fact, the overcoming of all the obstacles to economic development … amounts to more than the upheaval created in the eighteenth century by the French Revolution.

—Michal Kalecki (1966a, 19)

I start these conclusions with a reflection about the present crisis. As I write these final pages in July 2009, the crisis that started in the housing market of the United States (US) during the summer of 2007 has spread and now is a full-blown depression that affects all spheres of economic activity in both developed and developing countries. Policy makers and economists show great concern with the future of the world economy, and some even question the viability of capitalism as a model for the future (if Karl Marx could see it…). No matter what happens, it is clear that capitalism, in all “mixedeconomy” forms into which it developed during the 19th and 20th centuries, is subject to crises and depressions. To solve the crisis, economists are advocating different Keynesian-type policies. In my view, this must be a period of reflection that demands thinking outside the box. Given the severity of the crisis, I do believe that we need to return to the analyses of Keynes, Marx, and Minsky to understand its genesis and the consequences it will have. It is still too early to see where all this will lead to. But in terms of short-term consequences, it is obvious that one of the most significant will be higher unemployment.

A report by the World Bank notes that “the economic crisis is projected to increase poverty by around 46 million people in 2009. The principal transmission channels will be via employment and wage effects as well as declining remittance flows … The latest estimates for the Ministry of Labor in [the People's Republic of] China [PRC] show 20 million people out of work … The garment industry has laid off 300,000 workers in Cambodia (10% of workforce) … In India, over 500,000 jobs have been lost over the last 3 months of 2008 in export-oriented sectors … ILO [International Labour Organization] forecasts suggest that global job losses could hit 51 million, and up to 30 million workers could become unemployed” (World Bank 2009, 9).

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Inclusive Growth, Full Employment, and Structural Change
Implications and Policies for Developing Asia
, pp. 289 - 296
Publisher: Anthem Press
Print publication year: 2010

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