Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T22:01:24.617Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 21 - Benefits and Costs of the Population and Demography Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 May 2018

Bjorn Lomborg
Affiliation:
Copenhagen Business School
Get access

Summary

Prioritizing the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda on Population and Demography requires a recognition that national demographic trajectories are currently more diverse than in the middle and late 20th century. Wealthy countries of Europe, Asia and the Americas face rapid population aging, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen. And many of the world’s poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to face premature mortality, high fertility and often unmet need for contraception. The goal of this chapter is to discuss the Post-2015 Development Agenda in the area of Population and Demography, focusing primarily on aspects of population size, age structure and geographic distribution. Within population and demography, the priorities that have the highest benefit-cost ratios are: ● Achieving universal access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services by 2030, and eliminating unmet need for modern contraception by 2040. ● A reduction of barriers to migration within low- and middle-income countries, as well as between low- and middle-income countries and high-income countries.
Type
Chapter
Information
Prioritizing Development
A Cost Benefit Analysis of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals
, pp. 375 - 398
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2018

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abel, G. J. and Sander, N. (2014). Quantifying global international migration flows. Science 343(6178): 1520–2. doi:10.1126/science.1248676.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Adair, L. S., Martorell, R., Stein, A. D., et al. (2009). Size at birth, weight gain in infancy and childhood, and adult blood pressure in 5 low- and middle-income-country cohorts: when does weight gain matter? American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 89(5): 1383–92. doi:10.3945/ajcn.2008.27139.Google Scholar
Anderson, K. and Winters, A. L. (2009). The challenge of reducing international trade and migration barriers. In: Lomborg, B. (ed.), Global Crises, Global Solutions, 2nd ed., Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 451503.Google Scholar
Bauernschuster, S., Hener, T., and Rainer, H. (2014). Children of a (policy) revolution: The introduction of universal child care and its effect on fertility. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4776, URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2439616.Google Scholar
Beard, J., Biggs, S., Bloom, D., et al. (2012). Global population ageing: Peril or promise? PGDA Working Paper No. 89 (Global Agenda Council on Ageing Society), URL: www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/working.htm.Google Scholar
Behrman, J. R., Calderon, M. C., Preston, S., Hoddinott, J., Martorell, R., and Stein, A. D. (2009). Nutritional supplementation of girls influences the growth of their children: prospective study in Guatemala. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 90: 13721379.Google Scholar
Behrman, J. R. and Kohler, H.-P. (2014). Population quantity, quality, and mobility. In: Fardoust, S. and Behrman, J. R. (eds.), Towards a Better Global Economy: Policy Implications for Global Citizens in the 21st Century, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, forthcoming. Working paper version is available at www.gcf.ch/?page_id=5811.Google Scholar
Blau, F. D. and Kahn, L. M. (2012). Immigration and the distribution of incomes. NBER Working Paper #18515, URL: www.nber.org/papers/w18515.Google Scholar
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., and Sevilla, J. (2002). The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Canning, D. (2012). Copenhagen consensus perspective paper on “Infectious Disease.” Copenhagen Consensus Project 2012, URL: www.copenhagenconsensus.com.Google Scholar
Clements, B. J., Coady, D., Eich, F., et al. (2013). The challenge of public pension reform in advanced and emerging economies. International Monetary Fund, IMF Occasional Papers #275, URL: http://econpapers.repec.org/repec:imf:imfocp:275.Google Scholar
Dahl, G. B., Løken, K. V., Mogstad, M., and Salvanes, K. V. (2013). What is the case for paid maternity leave? NBER Working Paper #19595, URL: www.nber.org/papers/w19595.Google Scholar
D’Amuri, F. and Peri, G. (2014). Immigration, jobs, and employment protection: Evidence from Europe before and during the great recession. Journal of the European Economic Association 12(2): 432464. doi:10.1111/jeea.12040.Google Scholar
Darroch, J. E. and Singh, S. (2013). Trends in contraceptive need and use in developing countries in 2003, 2008, and 2012: an analysis of national surveys. Lancet 381(9879): 1756–62. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60597-8.Google Scholar
Deardorff, A. V. (2009). Alternative perspective: The challenge of reducing international trade and migration barriers. In: Lomborg, B. (ed.), Global Crises, Global Solutions, 2nd ed., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 504–10.Google Scholar
Engle, P. L., Black, M. M., Behrman, , et al. (2007). Strategies to avoid the loss of developmental potential in more than 200 million children in the developing world. Lancet 369(9557): 229–42. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60112-3.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Engle, P. L., Fernald, L. C. H., Alderman, H., et al. (2011). Strategies for reducing inequalities and improving developmental outcomes for young children in low-income and middle-income countries. Lancet 378(9799): 1339–53. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60889-1.Google Scholar
Global Agenda Council on Population Growth (2012). Seven billion and growing: A 21st century perspective on population. Geneva, Switzerland: World Economic Forum.Google Scholar
Grant, M. J. and Behrman, J. R. (2010). Gender gaps in educational attainment in less developed countries. Population and Development Review 36(1): 7189. doi:10.1111/j. 1728–4457.2010.00318.x.Google Scholar
Heckman, J. J. (2006). Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science 312(5782): 1900–02.Google Scholar
Heckman, J. J., Moon, S. H., Pinto, R., Savelyev, P. A., and Yavitz, A. (2010). The rate of return to the HighScope Perry preschool program. Journal of Public Economics 94(1–2): 114–28. doi:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2009.11.001.Google Scholar
Hoddinott, J., Alderman, H., Behrman, J. R., Haddad, L. and Horton, S. (2013a). The economic rationale for investing in stunting reduction. Maternal and Child Nutrition 9(Suppl. 2): 6982. doi:10.1111/mcn.12080.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hoddinott, J., Behrman, J. R., Maluccio, J. A., et al. (2013b). Adult consequences of growth failure in early childhood. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 98(5): 1170–78. doi:10.3945/ajcn.113.064584.Google Scholar
Hoddinott, J., Maluccio, J. A., Behrman, J. R., Flores, R. and Martorell, R. (2008). Effect of a nutrition intervention during early childhood on economic productivity in Guatemalan adults. Lancet 371(9610): 411–16. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(08)60205-6.Google Scholar
Jamison, D. T. et al. (2014). Post-2015 Copenhagen Consensus: Health. Copenhagen Consensus Project, Post-2015 Development Goals.Google Scholar
Kapur, D. and McHale, J. (2012). Economic effects of emigration on sending countries. In: Rosenblum, M. R. and Tichenor, D. J. (eds.), Oxford Handbook of the Politics of International Migration, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, Chapter 6, 131–52.Google Scholar
Kennan, J. (2012). Open borders. NBER Working Paper #18307, URL: www.nber.org/papers/w18307.Google Scholar
Kohler, H.-P. (2013). Population growth. In: Lomborg, B. (ed.), Global Problems, Smart Solutions, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Working paper version available at http://repository.upenn.edu/psc_working_papers/34.Google Scholar
Kohler, Hans-Peter and Behrman, Jere R. (2014). Population and Demography: Benefits and Costs of the Population and Demography Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda. Copenhagen Consensus Project: Post-2015 Consensus. URL: www.copenhagenconsensus.com/post-2015-consensus/populationanddemography.Google Scholar
Kohler, H.-P., Billari, F. C. and Ortega, J. A. (2006). Low fertility in Europe: causes, implications and policy options. In: Harris, F. R. (ed.), The Baby Bust: Who Will Do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes? Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 48109. URL: http://books.google.com/books?id=75alsu8U9QAC&pg=PA48.Google Scholar
Lee, R. D. and Mason, A. (2011). Generational economics in a changing world. Population and Development Review 37: 115–42. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00380.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luci-Greulich, A. and Thévenon, O. (2013). The impact of family policies on fertility trends in developed countries. European Journal of Population 29(4): 387416. doi:10.1007/ s10680–013–9295–4.Google Scholar
Malhotra, A., Warner, A., McGonagle, A. and Lee-Rife, S. (2011). Solutions to end child marriage: What the evidence shows, Washington, DC: International Center for Research on Women (ICRW), URL: www.icrw.org/files/publications/Solutions-to-End-Child-Marriage.pdf.Google Scholar
Martin, P. (2004). Migration. In: Lomborg, B. (ed.), Global Crises, Global Solutions, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 443–73.Google Scholar
Mukand, S. (2012). International migration, politics and culture: The case for greater labour mobility. Chatham House Policy Paper, URL: www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/186357.Google Scholar
Muralidharan, K. and Sundararaman, V. (2011). Teacher opinions on performance pay: Evidence from India. Economics of Education Review 30(3): 394403. doi:10.1016/j. econedurev.2011.02.001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., and Billari, F. C. (2009). Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460(7256): 741–3. doi:10.1038/nature08230.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
National Research Council (1986). Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
National Research Council (2012). Aging and the Macroeconomy. Long-Term Implications of an Older Population. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. National Research Council (NRC): Committee on the Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population, Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Committee on Population, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.Google Scholar
Pritchett, L. (2007). Let Their People Come: Breaking the Deadlock in International Labor Mobility. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Psacharopoulos, G. (2014). Education assessment paper: Benefits and costs of the education targets for the post-2015 development agenda. Copenhagen Consensus Project, Post-2015 Development Goals, URL: www.copenhagenconsensus.com//publication/post-2015-consensus-education-assessment-psacharopoulos.Google Scholar
Queisser, M. and Whitehouse, E. R. (2006). Neutral or Fair? Actuarial Concepts and Pension-System Design. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers #40. doi:10.1787/1815199x. URL: www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/neutral-or-fair_351382456457.Google Scholar
Rindfuss, R. R., Guilkey, D., Morgan, P. S., Kravdal, Ø., and Guzzo, K. B. (2004). Child care availability and fertility in Norway: Pro-natalist effects. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston, MA, April 1–3, 2004 URL: http://paa2004.princeton.edu.Google Scholar
Rohwedder, S. and Willis, R. J. (2010). Mental retirement. Journal of Economic Perspectives 24(1): 119138. doi:10.1257/jep.24.1.119.Google Scholar
Rosenzweig, M. (2004). Migration: Alternative perspectives. In: Lomborg, B. (ed.), Global Crises, Global Solutions, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 478–88.Google Scholar
Sahlgren, G. H. (2013). Work longer, live healthier: The relationship between economic activity, health and government policy. London: Institute of Economic Affairs. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2267408. Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Discussion Paper No. 46.Google Scholar
Salles, A., Rossier, C. and Brachet, S. (2010). Understanding the long term effects of family policies on fertility: The diffusion of different family models in France and Germany. Demographic Research 22: 1057–96. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanderson, W. and Scherbov, S. (2008). Rethinking age and aging. Population Bulletin 63(4): 116.Google Scholar
Thorne-Lyman, A. L., Valpiani, N., Sun, K., et al. (2010). Household dietary diversity and food expenditures are closely linked in rural Bangladesh, increasing the risk of malnutrition due to the financial crisis. Journal of Nutrition 140(1): 182S188S. doi:10.3945/jn.109.110809.Google Scholar
UN Population Division (2000). Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? New York: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.Google Scholar
UN Population Division (2009). What would it take to accelerate fertility decline in the least developed countries? UN Population Division Policy Brief No. 2009/1, URL: www.un.org/esa/population/publications/UNPD_policybriefs/UNPD_policy_brief1.pdf.Google Scholar
UN Population Division (2010). World Population Prospects, the 2010 revision: Standard (median) forecasts. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, URL: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/.Google Scholar
UN Population Division (2012). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision. New York: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations.Google Scholar
UNFPA (2014). ICPD Beyond 2014 Global Report. New York: United Nations. URL: www.unfpa.org/public/home/sitemap/ICPDReport.Google Scholar
UNFPA, UNDESA, UN-HABITAT, IOM (2013). Population Dynamics in the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Report of the Global Thematic Consultation on Population Dynamics. United Nations. URL: www.worldwewant2015.org/file/313464/download/340868.Google Scholar
United Nations (1996). Programme of Action Adopted at the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
Victora, C. G., Adair, L., Fall, C., et al. (2008). Maternal and child undernutrition: consequences for adult health and human capital. Lancet 371(9609): 340357. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61692-4.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Victora, C. G., de Onis, M., Hallal, P. C., Blössner, M. and Shrimpton, R. (2010). Worldwide timing of growth faltering: revisiting implications for interventions. Pediatrics 125(3): e473–80. doi:10.1542/peds.2009-1519.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Walker, J.-A. (2013). Why ending child marriage needs to be an education goal: The case for improved coordination between ending child marriage and girls’ education movements in West Africa. Center for Universal Education, URL: www.brookings.edu/∼/media/Research/Files/Reports/2013/12/improving percent20learning%20outcomes%20girls%20africa/walker_girls_education.pdf.Google Scholar
WHO (2013). Health in the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Report of the Global Thematic Consultation on Population Dynamics. WHO and United Nations, URL: www.worldwewant2015.org/health.Google Scholar
Wise, D. A. (2010). Facilitating longer working lives: International evidence on why and how. Demography 47(1): S131–49. doi:10.1353/dem.2010.0000.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×