Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-5c6d5d7d68-pkt8n Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-08-11T17:20:05.490Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

6 - Defining a Decision Analytic Structure

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

By
Detlof Von Winterfeldt  and
Ward Edwards
Edited by
Ward Edwards ,
Ralph F. Miles Jr.  and
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Detlof Von Winterfeldt
Affiliation:
Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California
Ward Edwards
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Southern California
Ralph F. Miles Jr.
Affiliation:
California Institute of Technology
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Affiliation:
University of Southern California
Get access

Summary

ABSTRACT. This chapter is a revision and update of the chapter “Structuring for Decision Analysis” of our book Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research (von Winterfeldt and Edwards 1986). More than 20 years have passed since we wrote this chapter and during this time we gained substantial experience with applying decision analysis to many different government, business, and personal problems. The one lesson that has not changed is that structuring decision problems is the most important and, at the same time, least well understood task of a decision analyst. The three-step structuring process (identifying the problem; selecting an appropriate analytical approach; refining the analysis structure) also has survived the test of time. However, more than 20 years of applying decision analysis have taught us many new lessons, some new tools, and a variety of refinements when it comes to structuring decision problems. We liberally use the text of the 1986 chapter and weave in new materials and ideas as we go along.

This chapter focuses on progressing from an ill-defined problem, articulated often vaguely by decision makers and stakeholders, to a clear definition of the problem and the associated analysis framework. Other chapters in this volume discuss specific structuring techniques using objectives hierarchies (Chapter 7), and belief networks and influence diagrams (Chapter 10). We therefore will touch only briefly on the specifics of structuring problems with these tools and will focus on the general ideas and principles guiding the decision analyst's structuring task.

Type
Chapter
Information
Advances in Decision Analysis
From Foundations to Applications
 , pp. 81 - 103
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Benthien, M., and Winterfeldt, D. (2001). Using decision analysis to improve seismic rehabilitation decisions. Working Paper No. WP-01–01. Institute for Civic Enterprise, School of Policy, Planning and Development, University of Southern California, Los Angeles.Google Scholar
Edwards, W. (1979). Multiattribute utility measuremenmt: Evaluating desegregation plans in a highly political context. In Perloff, R. (ed.), Evaluator interventions: Pros and cons. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, pp. 13–54.Google Scholar
Keeney, R. (1980). Siting energy facilities. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Keeney, R. (1992). Value-focused thinking. Cambridge, CA: Harvard Unversity Press.Google Scholar
Keeney, R. L. and Raiffa, H. (1976). Decisions with multiple objectives. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Keeney, R., See, K. E., and Winterfeldt, D. (2006). Inventory and appraisal of U.S. graduate decision programs. Operations Research, 25, 1–16.Google Scholar
Keeney, R., and Winterfeldt, D. (2005). Evaluation of Capilano–Seymour tunnel project alternatives. Report to the Greater Vancouver Regional District, Vancouver, CA.Google Scholar
Winterfeldt, D. (2005). A risk analysis of grounding practices to improve utility worker safety. Report submitted to Southern California Edison Co., Rosemead, CA.Google Scholar
Winterfeldt, D., and Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Winterfeldt, D., and Schweitzer, E. (1998). An assessment of tritium supply alternatives in support of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. Interfaces, 28, 92–112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winterfeldt, D., Eppel, T., Adams, J., Neutra, R., and Delpizzo, V. (2004). Managing potential health risks from electric power lines: A decision analysis caught in controversy. Risk Analysis, 24, 1487–1502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×