ABSTRACT

The subject of this paper is a Demographic Reserve Fund (DRF). The goal of the paper is analysis, diagnosis and forecast of the Fund's demand on financial means caused by entering the retirement age by the generation of demographic explosion and increasing it by the process of population aging. Hypotheses referring to the Demographic Reserve Fund itself and future condition of the Retirement Fund (RF) are as follows:

– calling of the DRF was a right decision facing the demographic forecasts,

– supplying of the DRF with financial means is insufficient in order to make it fulfil assumed goals (or sufficiently filling up shortages of financial means in RF).

Methodology is mix of cohort-component model for population projections and socio-economical models for basic scenarios of the environs of pension system.

Key words: population aging, social security system, Demographic Reserve Fund.

Introduction

The subject of this paper is a Demographic Reserve Fund (DRF). The goal of the paper is analysis, diagnosis and forecast of the Fund's demand on financial means caused by entering the retirement age by the generation of demographic explosion and increasing it by the process of population aging. Hypotheses referring to the Demographic Reserve Fund itself and future condition of the Retirement Fund (RF) are as follows:

– calling of the DRF was a right decision facing the demographic forecasts;

– supplying of the DRF with financial means is insufficient in order to make it fulfil assumed goals (or sufficiently filling up shortages of financial means in RF).